Novak just said he's giving Ohio and Florida to Kerry!!

[MoonRiver]

What the....

Is he terrified of a real investigation into Traitorgate when Kerry is elected? No time like the present to smooze, just in case?

Although I think there's a real chance that Kerry will take Ohio, I can't imagine Jebby Boy letting FL go Dem.

[StephNW4Clark]

1. Are you shitting me?

Please, please please.

I'm calling everyone I know in Florida and making sure they vote Dem.

[MoonRiver]

3. He just said it on Inside Politics with Woodruff!

Maybe the transcript is on CNN's website.

[tom_paine]

2. Bunnypants* has already "won" the Imperial Province of Florida

The "election" is already over down there.

As certain as Hitler winning the 1936 "vote".

[Feanorcurufinwe]

11. I wish there were a way to bet on the election on DU

because I would bet you that Kerry takes Florida.

I guess we'll just have to wait till the fall to see which of us is right.

[tom_paine]

20. Oh God, do I hope you're right.

My grin would be so big as I handed you the sawbuck, you'd think I'd won the lottery insetad of lost $10!

[Manix]

4. ..almost fell off my chair, hearing that from Novak!

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. Ok folks Novak sayng this

we may be seeing the end of the Bush presidency, and even the right knows it....

Now we need to retake the House and the Senate as well, or I can guaratee Kerry will be impeached too.

[union_maid]

5. He also reported honestly....

on Bush's talk with Republicans. Said it was a bust. Said that Bush meandered! No questions although they'd been led to believe there would be. I was pretty shocked.

[dogman]

7. He's always trying to misdirect the Dems.

He stated that the GOP was taking a pass on Illinois after the primaries. That's why we've merited a visit from Rove and the Senate race is heading down the dirt road. If he says it he usually has a mischievous motive.

[quinnox]

8. It surprised me too

also I heard that 20% of American Conservative group members were polled and said they wouldn't be voting for Bush! I'm starting to think a landslide in Kerry's favor will be more likely.

[On the Road]

9. The Thing About Florida Is:

There will be exit polls this time, and more people will have an eagle eye out for fraud.

I'm as much opposed to electronic voting as anyone -- I think it's illegal in most places because you can't do a recount.

But the advantage is: you can't spoil ballots after the fact because there are no ballots to spoil. If the totals differ from the exit polls, nobody can point to a stack of hanging chads or overvotes. It will immediately arouse suspicion. That may actually reduce the number of votes that can be stolen without detection.

[teryang]

14. Who is doing the exit polls?

There are several ways to screw up the election. One is the scheme to keep 50,000 "felons" off the rolls. Another is the loosening of restrictions on who may file how many absentee ballots. The third is polling volunteers attempting to obstruct registered democrats from voting. Another is the electronic devices themselves which unlawfully preclude challenges and recounts.

[On the Road]

16. Yes, the Felon Purge a Big Factor

I can't beleive Jeb is trying the same thing again this election. I guess it didn't get enough concern from important people last election. Gerg Palast can write all he wants, but unless members of the establishment start voicing some concerns, Jeb's not going to pay any attention to it.

[roguevalley]

21. I heard the Vatican and several foreign governments are going to be there.

[MoonRiver]

18. If it's illegal how can it be happening?

Yours is the most optimistic description of electronic voting I've heard. The only advantage I've know of is making voting easier for people with handicaps. Sure hope your rosy scenario works out! :)

[MajorFlaw]

26. It's only a "backup" plan, but it does make some sense.

If there are physical ballots, some politician of the judicial kind can find a way to count the ones they want and discard the ones the don't want and find for shrub. The widespread perception that "most people" voted for Kerry is the only way to keep a close one from being stolen again. Having extensive, scientific polling outside the polling places may be a way to get the job done. I'd like to hear more.

[callous taoboy]

10. Not to be complacent, of course....

but bunny pants is outa here. The head of the Mepublican committee in my city said as much to the head of the Democratic committee. This is a well-connected Mepublican from a long line of well- connected Mepublicans.

[Cyrano]

12. Don't believe one word said by that malignant dwarf

[WI_DEM]

13. well then he just admitted that he is giving the election to Kerry

If Kerry won both Ohio and Florida it will be a Democratic landslide.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

15. they need both

absolutely. They can't win without either.

[demodewd]

24. correction

They can't win without at least one of the two.

[MoonRiver]

19. He did say he's giving it to Kerry!

Showed his projection of EVs for each candidate, and Kerry won handily. Whore Woodruff pressed him on this, whining, 'well things can change can't they'? He agreed that the situation could change. The fact that he's projected a Kerry win is amazing, imo. Sure, Zogby has called it for Kerry, but he's not a rightwing shill.

[damnraddem]

17. Just like Novak to ...

try to make the voters irrelevant.

Doesn't he realize that that's Jeb's job?

Maybe Novak has lost faith in Jeb.

[dae]

22. Was he gagging as he said it?

[quaker bill]

23. I don't know about Ohio, but I think Fla is in reach.

Democrats clearly won in 2000 (had the votes been counted). 50,000 to 100,000 Democratic votes had been consistently tossed out for years because of disparity in voting methods. Most of the punch card voting has been in strongly democratic areas. This disparity has ended.

The pre-2000 purge was undone by the NAACP suit. These people have had their registrations restored.

We have a pretty good ground game in FLA. If we can do as well as we did in 2000 we win by 50,000+ votes. I expect we can do better this time because Bush* will have a much harder time running as something he is not. (compassionate)

[MoonRiver]

25. What about black box voting?

Hasn't Jeb already fixed it for AWOL?

[Bombtrack]

28. The 2000 fiasco had nothing to do with BBV. And Ohio is UNDENIABLY

more of a threat from Black box voting, considering DIEBOLD A: Is headquartered in the state, B: has been promised to Bush by Larry O'Dell, and C: has hugely more of a percentage of machines as total percent of ballots due to be recieved in Ohio than in Florida.

The biggest issue Jeb through at is in 2000 was his interference in a recount. Had Ohio gone to recount in 2000, we would have faced the same thing, as Bob Taft and his sec of state, are just as big Bushies as the Florida turds

[Bombtrack]

27. The double standard with peoples Paranoia in dealing with Florida and Ohio

here amazes me. As if Bob Taft, the Ohio GOP sec of State, and the overwhelmingly larger percentage of DIEBOLD machines as a percentage of ballots that will be cast to precincts compared to Florida are more reliable than what we have in Florida. A Florida congressman and Floridas senior senator are the one's leading the fight nationally for voter security as well. Of course all these people can offer is unspecific clouded paranoia and nothing close to concrete or scientific analysis.

It's defeatist and unfounded and stupid to say "the fix is in" in any swingstate, but it's just plain hypocritical to claim that absolutely undeniably bluest red swingstate from 2000 still after everything that happened against our favor is not attainable but one that was lost by 50 times more is attainable.

[Awsi Dooger]

29. DUers specialize in paranoia, especially regarding BBV

Thank you for the rare onslaught of rational analysis, Bombtrack.

I completely agree that Florida is a more likely pickup than Ohio. There is no way to critique any relevant and recent vote totals from the two states and conclude otherwise.

In fact, I nearly posted a poll asking that question (more likely, Florida or Ohio?) but was so sure it would be polluted with defeatist BBV garbage regarding Jeb & Co. that my conclusion was, why bother?

Jiacinto regularly took on the ludicrous assertions of the BBV crowd. Unfortunately, he was banned for an unrelated reason.

[MoonRiver]

30. We voters have experienced the jeb machine up close and personal.

We're not being paranoid. Paranoia is a delusional state of mind, imagining people are out to get one with no or little evidence to support such a belief. We all know that jeb and junior want to drive every last Democrats into the sea. :D

[Bombtrack]

34. But it's utterly simplistic to say the fix is or was in Florida in 2000 or

now. The Florida GOP wrangled the election from us sure. But they didn't forsee almost any of what would or was going to happen. They didn't have the script, they wrote it as they went along. As if the Bushes wanted to have that cloud of illegitacy over them for the whole term.

We don't have anything to compare Florida too, because no other state went to a prolonged recount. But had they, and we had a GOP dominant goverment in the state, as we DO in Ohio, there's nothing to show we'd have been in better off shape just because they aren't blood related to Bush. I am not saying we shouldn't be cautious. But we should be cautious across the board, not just selectively, when clearly the people that are are so vague in there fear-mongering that they clearly don't understand the issues entirely because they haven't bothered to learn

[elperromagico]

31. Nah. They're already removing "potential felons" from the rolls in FL.

Unless Florida is a runaway victory for Kerry (and it could quite possibly be), Jeb will ensure that the state goes for his big brudda.

[R3dD0g]

32. Here is link to transcript

Edit | Find 'ohio' for the secion where Novakula gives FL & OH to JFK.

<http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0405/21/ip.01.html>

[DaveSZ]

33. He's not making a prediction for Nov.

He's only saying based on state polls, Kerry is ahead in Ohio and Florida at this time.

Hey that's still good news.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

35. Novakio

Isn't a party hatchetman like Hannity, Coulter, Limbaugh or those clowns. He's a fullscale ego-driven opportunist, and he never met a headline he didn't like. He doesn't have any loyalty to the GOP or even to any other brand of conservatism than his own fairly perverse version, and everything he writes is pitched as McLaughlin Group fodder.

In other words: who cares?

[MoonRiver]

37. So, Novak wants to be the first to predict *'s defeat.

That makes sense. He's first and foremost a reporter in search of a "scoop".

"Who cares?" Those of us who want to find out the truth about how badly AWOL is polling, THAT'S WHO. :D

[Free_Thinker]

36. Florida is ours

We could nominate an actual CHIMPANZEE and it would beat the Smirking Chimp in Florida, Bushbot has no chance of hanging on to Florida, even if Jeb is the Plantation Boss for now.
Ohio I can't call.

[takebackthewh]

38. If he's right, that would be enough to win, I think. nt