Why Kerry will probably win in November

[WI_DEM]

Kerry is going to win every Gore state in 2000--most polls show him well ahead in blue states or in some of the closer ones like Pennsylvania slightly ahead or neck and neck--in November given the democratic trend in these states Kerry will win.

But look at the states which are truly considered toss ups in this election:

Ohio
W.Virginia
New Hampshire
Florida
Arizona
New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada
Wisconsin
Louisiana

These states have 115 electoral votes and look at how many of them are Red states from 2000--8 out of the 10. Only Wisconsin and New Mexico went Democratic in 2000 and there is an outside chance that Bush could pick them off in 2004--outside chance but not likely.

That means that at least 8 red states that went to Bush in 2000 potentially could go for Kerry--and maybe more based on who is the running mate.

I think Bush is toast.

[onehandle]

1. Landslide. nt

[JuniorPlankton]

2. Ahhh, sweet dreams

Let's hope it WILL happen.
But it's so great to think about it.

[lancdem]

3. What about Arkansas?

Kerry is running even with Bush there now. He probably has a better chance to win that than Louisiana. But I do agree Kerry is in very good shape electorally.

[jay-3d]

5. what about missouri

And i live in Texas. My vote is wasted! Have not seen any Kerry stickers! not one

[namvet73]

8. I have not seen ANY stickers..

nor signs for EITHER candidate here in NJ (NY METRO AREA)

Maybe each side is afraid someone from the other side will take their lunch money.

[WI_DEM]

9. I missed Missouri

yep that could potentially go to Kerry too.

[Estel]

10. Don't despair....

Lots of Kerry stickers in Austin!! My son was visiting a friend that lives in sorority house next to Bush daughter and said it was kind of funny all the Kerry t-shirts, buttons, and stickers. He even had his Kerry shirt on. Lots of Kerry stuff also in south Dallas and southern 'burbs. Lots of Texans unhappy about Bush and redistricting. Texas may not be as hopeless as you think. Perry is even alienating many Repugs.

[newyawker99]

11. Hi Estel!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[nickinSTL]

4. Kerry win

I keep hearing about all the polls that show the election really close, and often Bush in the lead.

But, I haven't heard of ONE person who voted for Gore in 2000 planning to vote for Bush this year.

Conversely, I hear about a number of people who voted for Bush in 2000 planning to vote for Kerry.

Sure, maybe it's because I frequent Democratic-leaning sites...

I just can't see how, when Gore won the popular vote and by all accounts at least came VERY close in electoral votes, how Bush can beat Kerry.

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. Talking to a firefighteer

yesterday, his batalion voted mostly for Bush in 2000, they are
not making that mistake again... his words... not mime

Oh did I mention this is freeperville central?

Did I mention that I have also seen Kerry stickers?

[vi5]

7. I don't know....He's ahead but too close here in NJ......

And we are usually overwhelmingly for the dem candidate. So it worries me that Kerry is this close.

The problem is that anything can tip the balances in this modern age of fear.