Why isn't Kerry beating Bush soundly?

[Guaranteed]

While I've been very critical of him in the past, keep in mind that ultimately I like Kerry and I HATE BUSH.

How do you explain Bush being at the lowest approval rating of his term, while Kerry has seemingly gotten no traction? What should Kerry do differently?

[freetobegay]

1. Bush is doing just fine on his own.

Why step in & ruin it?

[DarkPhenyx]

2. Kerry has maxed out on his appeal factor.

People not wanting to vote for Bush isn't going to result in thier voting for Kerry by default. Particularly if they are Conservative by nature. They are far more likely to just sit this one out...or vote for Bush anyway.

The "undecided" crowd won't make up their mind until the pull the lever, and it's that group he needs to concentrate on reaching.

[Guaranteed]

6. I agree.

The question is: how do you win them over?

Do you try to LEAD them, convince them that things should be different?

Or do you give in and say that you'll make things how they already think that they should be?

[DarkPhenyx]

13. Good question.

Me? If I were running I'd stick to my principals, tell people the truth as I see it, and hope that was enough. This is why I don't run for office. I'd never win. Honesty isn't appreciated in a political candidate.

[Guaranteed]

17. I'm just like you.

I expect honesty from both the candidate I'm voting for and myself.

[murielm99]

25. What lever? We ain't gonna have no

fucking lever. Just a bunch of paperless little machines that will gobble our votes.

[DarkPhenyx]

You know what I meant.

Please try to not get wrapped around the axel about things which were not intended in my post, ok? It helps keep it clear and simple.

[Zuni]

3. The reason is RW propaganda

about Kerry flooding the airwaves. There is a huge, massive effort to destroy Kerry underway. Just listen to Hannity or Limbaugh, or watch Fox---they are vultures doing their best to pick his bones

[Guaranteed]

10. That's a huge factor.

Totally agreed.

[Delano]

4. Nader, Nader, Nader, and a little bit of Kerry.

Nader is taking about 5% away fropm Kerry right now (it will be less in the election, since Nader won't be on many ballots)

Kerry's aloofness and patrician demeanor are offputting to some, as well as his very "politician" way of speaking.

I like him, to the point of forgiving his IWR vote, but I understand the reservations people have.

Also, the right-wing lie that he is a flip-flopper has stuck to a degree, though not many people can really name anything he's flip-flopped on, except the $87 bil, and they always ignore the sound reasons Kerry gave for that "flip-flop"

[stopbush]

5. Jeez, take a chill pill. Kerry's at 50% right now and has come up

quite well.

I swear, if Kerry had 100% of the polls we'd hear complaints.

[Guaranteed]

9. This is a legitimate question.

All that I'm asking is why, since Bush has fucked everything up so royally, Kerry doesn't have a solid lead.

Don't you wonder about that yourself?

[qazplm]

11. I dont think people want to accept

that we really are a 50/50 country.

both sides, liberal and conservative really want to believe that if just given half a chance their views will cause an avalanche of voters to go their way.

but the fact of the matter is that most voters wouldnt vote outside their political party if satan was their candidate. whats left is a small group of people who are either very critical thinkers or somewhat confused or unsure.

those people arent going to break til late, and what to me the even nature says to me is that both candidates have solidified their base, and are now battling for the leftovers that will decide who wins.

A Clinton comes along once in a generation as far as being a politician that can "cross" the aisle. Bush Jr could have been similiar but he overreached.

[Guaranteed]

16. While partially true,

I feel like the only way to make progress here is to make an argument.

The status quo is mutable.

Look at what happened with the Iraq war. Support for it was split in half, but once it started there was a massive shift toward it.

I feel very strongly that people move toward stalwart leadership- right or wrong. The trick is to give that kind of leadership on the right side of issues.

[murielm99]

26. While I believe that we are a polarized country, I do not really believe

that we are at 50/50. Remember, Gore actually won the last election.

Michael Moore does a good job of debunking that 50/50 crap in "Dude, Where's My Country?"

He shows that most people have very liberal views on social issues, and do not really like to go to war. Most people are very tolerant about religious issues, too.

They just have a bigger propaganda machine. They have more money, and make more noise.

[ngGale]

29. The propaganda machine is hard at work...

This year's presidential campaign is already shaping up to be even more negative than the last. That's no accident. Our correspondent looks at the cloak-and-dagger world of opposition research—the updated version of "dirty tricks."

snip/

After Bush's victory Comstock moved on to the Justice Department, and Griffin turned his considerable skills to prosecuting federal drug and firearms cases. Not long ago the RNC brought Griffin back in anticipation of this year's election, and in an indication of just how closely research and communications are intertwined, took the unusual step of bestowing two titles on him: director of opposition research and deputy communications director. From the same room in which he brought down Al Gore, Griffin is leading his team against John Kerry.

Click here to access the article:
http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/2004/06/green.htm

[murielm99]

32. Good article. Thanks!

[ezee]

19. Not only is Kerry at

50%, but he has done it with the R/W attach machine in full force. To have come this far against those odds should tell us all something. KEEP SUPPORTING him and he will do just fine. AND just wait for the debates, he will snip shrub boy branch by branch to the trunk and then he will be history! Thats when the "undecided" will stand and the truth will be known. Only in America could such a terrible mistake have been made in 2000. And it will be corrected!

[Nashyra]

43. All the hype is just that partisan hype

the *s polls are slipping, the undecided go up and then after a bit of time the undecided go down and Kerry goes up. It stands to reason that voters turning away from the * will go to the undecided first, 2/3 of undecided historically go to challenger. So the tide is turning, it is prudent politics when your challenger is shooting himself don't go near the gun, or you might get shot. The * is wounded and when your enemy is wounded it is better to take the high road. That is how the swing vote is won, the media pundits are the ones trying to make it an issue.

[MAlibdem]

7. basically...

because shift in voting from bush to kerry takes longer than shift from supporting bush to being neutral...

esp shifting to actively supporting/donating to kerry

[The_Casual_Observer]

8. The campaign hasn't started yet

Kerry isn't even an official candidate yet with a VP running mate.
Yet he is stll ahead!

[Old and In the Way]

21. True........and BGL was quite adament that we should not consider

Kerry the nominee until the convention, last month. I'm surprised he's even asking the question since Kerry is not our nominee yet.

[Guaranteed]

22. I don't think I ever said that.

Lemme think a second.....

No, I don't think I ever said that LOL.

Ever.

[Old and In the Way]

33. I stand corrected.

Damn, I spent the last 90 minutes pouring over the archives. Yes, it was said, but no, it was not you. I apologize. :-)

[Erika]

12. Kerry's Campaign Style & Strategy

He's known for letting his opponents historically rage and rag-out, and then Kerry makes his move in the last three months prior to the election and beats the opponent resoundly.

[Guaranteed]

18. Yep

Good closer is the word.

I sure hope so.

[Kahuna]

14. People don't know Kerry.

nt

[TreasonousBastard]

20. Bingo!

We've got more dead GIs, the mess in Fallujah, torture stories, Rumsfeld hearings, Michael Jackson, gay weddings, phony economic news, $2 gas, and a head chopped off.

And some other things keeping people's attention.

It's tough for Kerry to get a few words in edgewise. Even tougher to find the right words and not say something about Iraq not guaranteed to be viciously attacked.

As long as he doesn't actually lose momentum, I wouldn't take much notice of the polls until the convention, when he should get a big spike.

[Old and In the Way]

24. I expect to see 2-3 point bumps-

(1) When he makes his nominee known (I hope he also lines up his cabinet before the election, too)
(2) At the convention.
(3) At the debates.

So he could get another 10 points between now and November.

[JI7]

15. the election is in november, most don't pay attention now

at least not enough to actually look at the challenger(kerry). they know how they feel about bush because he is actually in office now. so they can say whether they are satisfied with him or not. but they don't know kerry as well so decrease in support for incumbant does not automatically result in increase for the challenger.

they will start topay attention to kerry more later on when the campaign starts to get going with the vp pick , the conventions, and debates and then they will decide whether they want to vote for kerry or not.

[TheDonkey]

23. Kerry is doing very well, look at recent polls...

plus many people don't know Kerry. If you really know average Americans you would know they don't watch CNN, DU, etc and it is going to take time for Kerry ads and media to seep into their minds.

Local news in many places is complete crap and will not cover anything not bush.

[Bowfin]

27. re: "Why isn't Kerry beating Bush soundly?"

I see a few main reasons. One is that the Dems aren't putting enough Kerry message into the media. He's basically a loner out there. Another is that people have to lose attraction to Bush first, and that's continually happening. And third, Kerry needs to not meet Bush at his level, but put the issues into a larger context. He has to tell people the real reason why they hate us is epitomized in the Iraq invasion/occupation, and that a Kerry administration will reform our Foreign Policy from here on out so that we will no longer support repressive govts, we will no longer keep people from transforming their societies, and we will no longer support corporate rape/pillage/plunder of other countries.

34. Well said. Short and to the point. /nt

[yellowdawgdem]

28. Kerry will win

when it's all over, because even repubs are scared silly over the pograms and policies. What I really think is that people are angry and disallusioned with Bush and all that he represents. But they are discouraged and think that their voice won't make a difference- so they are frightened into silence and passivity. Which is the worst possible way to go about an election year.
This may be partly why Kerry isn't doing "better" at this point in time. Though he is doing great imo- he's a pro at this stuff, and the impt thing is, he hasn't made any bad 'mistakes'.
The worst thing he did was waffle on the IWR vote, and waffle on whether he threw the medals back. Those are not major mistakes, though probably some would strongly disagree. At least he's not waffling on stuff the way Diane Feinstein does. Or Leiberman. You'd think they'd be putting up a bigger fight themselves esp. with so many parallels to Nazi Germany concentration camps.

[murielm99]

31. Good post, yellowdawg!

[yellowdawgdem]

35. aww, thanks /nt

[Pastiche423]

30. He wants to win by default

He's not into heavy lifting, ya know?

[Gore1FL]

36. This isn;t too hard a question. Lets delve into some facts

1: The election season has started much much earlier, and for the most part Bush is the only one playing.

2: People still don't know Kerry. Traditionally, undecided and fence voters stay witht he incumbant until about October, and tend to fall to the challenger.

3: Kerry is beating or is tied with Bush in most polls. For an incumbant to be in this position in Spring is a statistical coffin nail.

4: When an incumbant runs for president, much of the vote is based on him - not the challenger. The position of Kerry is less Bush v Kerry, but more so Bush vs Not Bush. Therefore most of the polling data reflects Bush vs other guy -- As Kerry starts firing up the campaign, people will find their way off the fence (one way or another) presumably to Kerry.

In short -- don't worry. this is exactly where we should be (actually we should be much worse off). While on the face of it, the numbers do not look overwhelmingly positive, this race is shaping up towards a major Democratic victory.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[Finch]

38. I like Kerry too...

...don't agree with him on every thing but i have big problems with some of Bush's polices...

That said your reasons for Kerry not doing great are...

He's dull.

He Liberal.

He is not so dull or so liberal that he can't win... he just doesn't have the message or the style to inspire voters... an exciting VP choice will help but ultimately Kerry will need to get to the stage where Iraq and the people's general attitudes about the direction of the economy hurt Bush so much that Kerry is the only real option... "the steady reliable" if unexciting obvious choice...

[bushwakker]

39. Historically JK is doing very well

I believe respected pollster Andrwew Kohut wrote an article saying that no challenger has ever done this well in the polls as JK is. Carter was ahead of reagan at this point. The public is focuseed on the events in Iraq and will not "hear" much of wwhat JK says at this point. Sounds like you and many others here are just looking to rip JK.

[ACK]

40. Perception is that Kerry is laying low but media has not covered him

If you search around you find articles of Kerry all over the place:

Kerry assails Bush on Iraq Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22443-2004May12.html

Kerry calls the Iraq War a Failure

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A20807-2004May12.html

Don't Rush trials for Iraqi Prisoner Abuse

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/nationworld/orl-aseckerry13051304m ...

Numbers don't bode well for Bush

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A25367-2004May13.html

He is bashing Bush and winning in the polls.

If anything the whore press is getting to their push point of picking up the Repuke line that Kerry is trying to take advantage of tragedy for political gain.

Ok, yes, he is doing historically very well and usually if your beating an incumbent this early in the game you got it made.

Think about it real hard. The scandal stuff will blow over. The Repukes control the the legislature and the courts and push the whore media around the room like a cheap bully on a schoolyard does to the kid who eats paste. Come on someone in the Administration committed treason and outed a CIA official and people out there in the world most of them do NOT even know.

Also, Kerry is ahead in the polls against an incumbent during a time of war before the convention. That does not suck, period.

However, here comes my kick in the gut. We are never going to get a huge lead.

The country is idealogically divided. There are at least 40% of the people in this country that could watch Bush blow the brains out of an American soldier on live tv and piss on the corpse that would still vote for the shrub. It is that bad. Oh yeah it ain't just the South the margins especially in a handfull of states are much closer than the solid West without the coast.

It is going to be closer than we want. He will never lead in the polls by huge comfy amounts. He is doing well against an incumbent at this point of the game and this does bode well.

On edit:
What should Kerry be doing that he is not?

Many will disagree but he cannot go cut and run just yet. The Repukes would murder him on it. But he can start talking about a real exit strategy. He can talk about setting reasonable goals, achieving them and then getting the f*ck out.

He can give people the light at the end of the tunnel they want.

He has been so articulate and wordy about other positions but not Israel? Don't get caught in the "I can out-Zion you" contest with the Repukes. Talk about going back to the Clinton policies of engagement and getting everyone involved in the peace process again.

Come on throw the base some bones you have to get out the vote Kerry on election day.

_

[snippy]

41. This column by Andrew Kohut provides an interesting explanation.

Why the Polls Don't Add Up

. . .

The real reason that Mr. Kerry is making so little progress is that voters are now focused almost exclusively on the president. This is typical: as an election approaches, voters first decide whether the incumbent deserves re-election; only later do they think about whether it is worth taking a chance on the challenger. There is no reason to expect a one-to-one relationship between public disaffection with the incumbent and an immediate surge in public support for his challenger.

We saw the same dynamic in the 1980 race. President Jimmy Carter's favorable rating in the Gallup surveys sank from 56 percent in January to 38 percent in June, yet he still led Ronald Reagan in Gallup's horse-race measures. For much of the rest of the campaign, voters who disapproved of Mr. Carter couldn't decide whether Mr. Reagan was an acceptable alternative. Through the summer and early fall, the lead changed back and forth, and CBS/New York Times and Gallup polls showed conflicting results — at one point in August, Gallup found Mr. Reagan ahead of President Carter by 16 percentage points, yet just two weeks later it registered a dead heat. It was not until the two men held a televised debate eight days before the election that Ronald Reagan gained legitimacy in the eyes of the electorate.

Similarly, in May 1992 President George H. W. Bush had only a 37 percent approval rating according to a Times Mirror Center survey, but the same poll showed him with a modest lead, 46 percent to 43 percent, over Bill Clinton. Only the Democratic convention and the debates brought about an acceptance of Mr. Clinton (even though his negative ratings were higher than Mr. Kerry's are now). It took a long time for him to be seen as an acceptable alternative to Mr. Bush.

Should the voters' disillusionment with the current President Bush continue, they will evaluate John Kerry and decide whether he is worth a chance. But, as in the past, the focus at this stage is on the man in the White House — and given the events in Iraq, it is unlikely to come off him any time soon. Mr. Kerry's lack of progress should not, for now, be cause for concern to Democrats. Public opinion about Mr. Bush is the far more important barometer — and if it remains low, Mr. Kerry will have a chance to make his case.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/12/opinion/12KOHU.html

[JHBowden]

42. They appear to agree on the war.

"I like the war but have aesthetic disagreements with Bush" isn't going to cut it, given the war is the #1 issue in the country right now. The Lieberman-Daschle strategy of agreeing on defense and hoping for economic weakness is an empty recipe for failure.