About this Clinton has lost/Obama has won thing...

[flowomo]

just as a semi-philosophical matter I find the proposition intriguing that one candidate has lost a contest statistically but can prevent the other candidate from winning it. How am I to construe that? We usually think of a contest as a zero-sum affair -- somebody has to win and somebody has to lose, unless there is a provision for a tie. Do we have that provision in this case? In what sense? And if Clinton has lost in a meaningful sense, why doesn't Obama just claim victory and stop campaigning against the loser? Is that politically possible? Or could the "loser" then use that decision as a way to win? I am just struck by the number of posts here that begin with the phrase, "Clinton has lost" -- and yet the thing goes on. I'm not drunk, just musing. And I'd appreciate your thoughts (not your flames or put-downs :) )

[enki23]

1. What they (we) mean is this:

The odds of hillary clinton winning this nomination race at this point are too small to merit continuing the fight, if continuing the fight weakens our chances of taking the whitehouse.

[flowomo]

4. I'm not sure that's responsive....

the threads say, "Hillary has lost." Either she has (in which case my questions are valid) or she hasn't (in which case, she seems justified in staying in). If it's a matter of semantics (as you suggest), then people should stop saying, "Hillary has lost" and say what they actually mean -- "Hillary can't win." But how can she not possibly win if Obama can't win as long as she stays in it?

[desi]

21. Agreed.

Plus the Democratic Party insists that everyone eligible to cast a vote must be able to cast said vote and that said vote must be counted. The Obama supporters, some of them I should say, had been asking for Senator Clinton to step down before we in Ohio participated in the process. Why should Iowa's voters have the opportunity to cast their <1000 votes for Obama but we in Ohio be deprived of casting our 1,200,00O for Hillary? And why should the remaining states be denied the right to participate in the process as well?

[Blarch]

36. Hillary wants ALL the votes ignored.

That hack wants the supers to ignore the votes and give her the nod, so you Hillhacks can stop with the 'vote counting' BS

[anamandujano]

51. Two words, Florida and Michigan.

[mbperrin]

45. Thank you! Yes, ALL the votes should be counted!

I have belonged to the party of inclusion my entire life, and I can never remember a time when any candidate felt powerful enough to tell supporters of another candidate to simply shut the fuck up. We need to hear from all voters, including those in Michigan and Florida!

Voter suppression is being justified in either the name of money, or "rules", or unity, or whatever other pathetic excuse can be hauled out. At no time has a complete airing of views, a complete counting of votes, a complete group for input, been thought of as divisive or bad for the party until now.

This unique and cowardly approach to campaigning is just a pitiful cover for very little substance. I support new primaries in Michigan and Florida, and a full run of all the rest of the primaries as well, in order to find out who the party really supports! The idea that we're all already obligated to support someone who has won in small states and a few southern states is ludicrous, unless you really WANT to see McCain in the White House! I don't.

So let's let the SELECTION process play out, and end the CORONATION being attempted by main force of intimidation, shame, and sexism on the part of the Obama campaign. Good sounding rhetoric is fine. Let's now see some character by being willing to find out the true will of the party!

[anamandujano]

50. Well said. It appears they don't want a true read on the voter's choice.

I find it totally sickening.

They are playing it the way George W. Bush played Florida in 2000.

[ORDem]

47. Nice in theory, but our FU'd primary system doesn't often work that way.

Very often the nomination is sewed up before my state gets to vote. Don't like it, but that's the way it is (again) this year.

:kick:

[napoleon_in_rags]

29. There is a third case.

Which is that the statement does not reflect what the poster believes but is an attempt to affect reader psychologically. This is old fashioned propaganda, and its freaky to see it being used here against other members here...Because the tactics being used are classic demonization tactics. This would be ONE thing if Obama were running against Hillary in the GE, but we are in a situation where the only real way to lose against the Republicans is to have us divided to the extent where Obama and Clinton can't run on the same ticket, and enough people on either side are so pissed they won't vote for the other. Its scary because given recent polling results, that number doesn't have to be very big to ensure a loss in November.

[Dogmudgeon]

2. Team Obama is scared.

Of what, I do not know, given that they all hold so strongly to the talking point that No Way Can Evil Hillary Win.

If Evil Hillary Can't Win, why do they put so much time and effort into calling for her capitulation?

Why does Obama HQ continue to dispatch internet activists to browbeat everyone else into submission?

They are scared, badly scared, that Hillary will achieve an advantage in the voter count, or that Obama will suffer a major blow-out and Hillary will sweep the rest of the primaries. It is possible that Team Obama knows that there is some Bad Horrible Hidden Secret that is close to revelation, and want the boards clear before it hits.

I don't know, but a lot of Obama supporters are acting mighty suspicious in trying to hurry this along.

--p!

[Bonobo]

8. Simple answer: Pyrrhic Victory. n/t

[Straight Shooter]

33. Or for the Obama campaign, hoist on their own petard. n/t

[thoughtcrime1984]

9. I think it is more that the MSM has the flogging

of Obama on an endless loop until he is politically dead. Of course this will only continue in the GE cycle, but I am sure he'd like to get that far to actually have a shot at being President. I'm not sure how much more false outrage can be drummed up, perhaps the supply is endless... :shrug:

[EFerrari]

11. Hurry?! How long has this been going on? Hasn't this been

the longest primary season since God learned to ride a bike? :)

[anamandujano]

53. If the party wanted a shorter season, they could have planned it that way.

They did not. Team Obama is trying to artificially shorten it to protect its non-representational caucus, Repuke meddling lead.

[melody]

15. Let's try it this way -- She can't win HONESTLY!

She's trying to win the same way Bush did -- by STEALING the election via bullying her way through.

Scared? Hell no, I am profoundly pissed at two people (the Clintons) whom I used to admire enormously.
They're everything their left-wing enemies ever said they were: corporate shills.

[anamandujano]

56. Try it any way and every way you want to, the contest is still on and

she is neck and neck with a lot less money and the MSM trashing her relentlessly and kissing Obama's @ss.

If he can't get to 2025, he is in the same boat that you are putting Hillary in, loser.

[melody]

59. She isn't neck and neck -- and she is making very certain that McCain will win

Her reasons for doing it are her own to know.

[rodeodance]

17. Most of the obamafolk on DU are acting out their paranoia more and more each day.

[totodeinhere]

37. Most Obama supporters do not consider Clinton "evil."

So I wish you wouldn't so blithely say that we do. We oppose her politically and we feel that Obama would be a better president, but of course Clinton is a human being, not an evil monster.

That isn't saying that some rabid partisans on both sides don't get carried away with the name calling, because of course they do. But we should take that with a grain of salt.

And as far as the fear factor goes, the only thing I'm afraid of is that if Clinton stays in this much longer even though she can't win she will inflict so much damage on Obama that he will have a hard time beating McCain in November.

[TahitiNut]

3. I think Senatorial candidates for President should be required to get a 60% supermajority.

After all, it'd be justice.

:dunce:

[babylonsister]

5. That might be the current Obama plan. Ignore. It should be. nt

[flowomo]

7. that's what I was thinking....

if he believes she can't win, why not just say, "I'm the nominee; let's move on." The answer, I think, is that such a decision might be the only thing that could make her the winner. But I don't know.

[Voice for Peace]

25. also...

I think Obama is already running against McCain, but she is not; she's only running against Obama.

McCain isn't even running, he's just bumbling around and biding his time while neocons whisper in his ear and the RW digs up dirt.

[AZBlue]

6. You're confusing two different races -

she's lost the Democratic Party's nomination; but by prolonging her stay, she's hurting Obama's changes of winning the General Election because he's wasting his time with her instead of running against the real opponent, McCain.

[flowomo]

10. no, I am not confusing two races....

I am talking about the one-on-one contest between Clinton and Obama -- which has to have a winner and loser. The general election is another issue altogether -- and can only occur after the first contest is settled.

[Voice for Peace]

23. It's a 3 way race, really.

The winner will be decided in November after the GE.

One of the three will be eliminated before then.

Hillary thinks it should be Obama.

According to people who follow the math of the delegates, it's set that Hillary is the one who will be eliminated because there is no way she can catch up in the pledged delegates.

But she is staying in and doing her utmost to undermine his electability, at all costs; thus McCain is winning.

If she can throw enough confusion into the mix, turning people against Obama, she thinks the Superdelegates will decide in her favor.

I think you already understand all of this; I guess you probably just want people to stop saying "Hillary has lost" until there's an official end to this bloodbath?

But.. good luck with that.

If she keeps doing what she's been doing, the chances are good the Superdelegates will continue to flock to Obama.

If it goes on much longer, and she succeeds in convincing the SD's to give her the nomination, the possibility of a Dem winning in November will be lower. She will not get the same support Obama is getting from Independents and many Republicans. Those are probably going to be the decisive votes in the GE.

So even if she wins the nomination, she has already lost, in my opinion.

[flowomo]

26. interesting post -- the kind of analysis I was interested to hear...

but, no, I am really not trying to get people to stop saying, "Hillary has lost," rather trying to puzzle out the politcal/philosophical implications of the claim. Someday, a lot of philosophers (language analysts) and political philosophers are going to be writing lots of papers and theses about these things. It may be "academic" and pointless in the real world, but it's an intriguing set of circumstances for those who puzzle over meanings.

[Voice for Peace]

28. Ah, ok, I get you.

And it depends ultimately on what winning means, and what level of winning is really important.

If a person wins the power of the presidency but loses their soul, or destroys their good name, or their party, or otherwise uses that power for personal gain at the expense of others, or destruction of life, or the advancement of cheat and deceit, have they won anything?

In my opinion, no.
As somebody famous once said, you can't serve two masters.

[flowomo]

31. now that's a whole other kettle of fish...

worthy of discussion, but for another thread.

[AZBlue]

30. But no one's saying she can't win the nom but hurts Obama's chance at the nom.

If you're not confusing them, you've misunderstood.

[flowomo]

32. that's not how I read this post.....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5202809&mesg_id=5202809

that one sort of led to my musing (and it's not the only one)

[jerryster]

43. She hasn't lost it yet.

The race for the nomination is not over. Remember with our party it's not just math. The super delegates will have their say. And whether we like it or not (I don't), those are the rules and EACH candidate must
live or perish with them.

[GarbagemanLB]

12. She is still in it, IF you accept the pledged delegate leader being overruled as an option. I, don't

. Any situation involving the winner of the pledged delegates being overturned by Superdelegates will ensure the Democrats lose in 2008, period. Of course the entire youth and AA vote wouldn't disappear, but it would likely decrease in strong enough margins to substantially hurt the Democratic party.

I don't think the superdelegates are morons, and as a result I don't believe they would overturn the pledged delegate leader. Following that logic, this primary is over.

[musicblind]

20. But it is an option. Even if you feel it's not a good one and would ruin the party

it is still an option. I personally think it would only ruin the party under certain circumstances. If Obama has the pledged lead, is leading in polls, and leading in popular vote it would not be a good idea. If Obama has pledged lead and Hillary the popular vote then either way would probably end up justifiable. If Obama has the pledged lead and Hillary the popular vote but Obama is leading in all the polls then they would have to go with Obama to not have a disaster. If Obama is leading in pledged delegates, and the popluar votes but he is, for some reason (who knows), suddenly WAY behind in the polls... then the smart thing is to go with Hillary. It is all going to depend on what happens. Then there is the small, though very very small chance that Hillary will win massive margins in all the states left. It's very very unlikely, but since it is "techincally" possible the contest isn't over. Similar to a football game where a 1000 points behind. Technically you'd never win... but it would be lame to stop the game and send everyone home because some of the players might get injured and wouldn't fair as well in the super bowl. I personally think that no permenant damage has been done to either candidate that would not have happened regardless of who was still in the race. Not at this point at least.

[GarbagemanLB]

24. The thing is, the longer this plays out, the larger McCain's support over EITHER Democratic candidat

e grows. There are talks of this going through SEPTEMBER, as that is the deadline for the delegates to make their final decisions on who to support. At this point, frankly, I think it would be suicide for Hilary to win in ANY circumstance that doesn't involve her winning the pledged delegate vote. If she wins without it, expect to see the youth and the black vote to decrease substantially (not disappear, of course), leading to big problems in November.

I also will not be voting for Clinton if she wins without the pledged delegate AND the popular vote lead, and I suspect there are plenty of other Obama supporters who will see injustice in such an outcome. My point is simply that we need an outcome that the MAJORITY of Democrats can see as just. The easiest way for that to happen is to have the pledged delegate leader win.

[musicblind]

35. I think the majority would certainly understand if Hillary was given the nomination based on the cir

based on the circumstances I listed. If she has the popular vote and Obama is down in the polls publicly, it would not be robbing anyone. She would have WON the most votes and since the nomination is not decided on either pledged delegates or popular vote the supers would have to choose. If it appeared that the voice of America at the time was claiming a desire for Clinton over Obama. and these are all BIG ifs. Without MI or FL it looks less likely that she will reach a popular vote at all. But IF she did, it would not be robbing the cradle to give her the nomination if Obama was also below her in the polls at the time. It would be the smartest thing to do. Almost all of her supporters (at least 47% of the party) would feel robbed at that point since she would have the highest polls (meaning the majority of dems wanted her at that time) and the most popular vote (meaning the majority of dems wanted her at that time) and Obama would be trying to win on a technicality as he was not able to win enough Delegates to go over the top either. I would be fine to give the nod to Gore at that point of that is the only way people would accept it rather than choose Obama and bury the parties chances in Nov. (though that would only apply if the above circumstances were in place. Not saying Obama having the nod as is, right now, would bury the party in Nov.) I think a lot of what it is on this board is that people take politics personally, and they also hate Hillary. That is not rational. As Bill Maher (who is supporting Obama in this race) wisely said. "If you hate Hillary, that doesn't say anything about her. That say something about YOU."

I hope all of this is able to work out without the party breaking apart. But I don't think DU represents the party either. I'm not THAT worried. Obviously it doesn't. 47% of the party wants Hillary. About 15% of DU does. Not representative of the feelings of the rest of the world. Though I am sure the people here FEEL like they know the feelings of the rest of the world, since it is human nature to inflect our feelings onto the actions of others. It would be nice if John Edwards were still in the race. He too would be a good option. Whether he endorses Obama or Hillary or No One he'll always be one of our best candidates. Oh well sorry for the rambling. I wrote a longer post than I meant to.

[anamandujano]

60. The height of Bullcrap. The differences between the Dems and McCain

are significant.

There is plenty of time for either to run against McCain.

[GarbagemanLB]

13. Delete

[NashVegas]

14. Do Not Under Estimate Hillary Clinton

If there is one thing women understand, it's the necessity to choose your battles wisely. HRC would not be in the race if she didn't believe she could win it. It's that simple.

[FrenchieCat]

18. Actually, it isn't quite that simple.....and I'm not sure what Hillary has done

to merit not being underestimated. When one starts with the advantages that she had, and ends up where she is, there was no underestimation involved. If anything, her lack of planning properly, her lack of utilizing everything except for her own good merits to try and win, and the lack of money that she currently faces along with the lack of odds of her winning leads me to believe that she did the underestimating......of who she was up against.

Bottom line is that the media is the one that is keeping it going, like not admitting that Obama got more delegates in Texas, and other "experience" questions and NAFTA issues squashed......and not really telling the truth that her odds are just too slim.

The fact that she is willing to destroy the Democratic party for what is an exercises in futility is the only thing that I don't underestimate that she will do.

[saltpoint]

27. She was so confidant she'd win it that she didn't bother having a

focused organization post-Feb. 5th.

Sheer arrogance.

[rodeodance]

16. The claim

that Clinton has lost is the error. If people use that as their premise-then they are in the dilemma you speak of

[Patsy Stone]

19. You've left out the most important factor:

the media.

Since this is still "close" in terms of delegates and polls (and there's enough drama for every news cycle), they are playing this like a horserace. Although, things may soon change; even they have recently begun to see the writing on the wall.

With hours to fill, the networks dig up dirt on both candidates and the party, eventually, may suffer because of a prolonged fight.

[babylonsister]

22. Yes! And that's the problem. We need a candidate to fight McCain,

right now.

Hi, Patsy, as always, we agree. :pals:

[publicatlarge]

34. From wikipedia...

The 2008 Democratic primaries are the selection process by which members of the United States Democratic Party choose their candidate for the 2008 US Presidential election. The Democratic candidate for President will be selected through a series of primaries and caucuses culminating in the 2008 Democratic National Convention scheduled from Monday, August 25, through Thursday, August 28, 2008, in Denver, Colorado.

In order to secure the nomination at the convention, a candidate must receive at least 2,024 votes from delegates (a simple majority of the 4,047 delegate votes, bearing in mind half votes from territories).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008

Neither candidate can get the 2024 delegate count during the primary. Currently Obama is leading in pledged and super delegates by 128. Pledged delegates from remaining contests is 343.

There are many factors to consider as this moves along.

[rug]

38. He is about to get his ass handed to him in PA so naturally all you here is she should quit.

He cannot win before the convention and they find that fact intolerable. Rather than focus on issues or the slim difference between the candidates they focus on bullshit, false calls to defend the party (even though many of them are overt in their intention not to vote Democratic if it's not Obama), specious attacks on Clinton's person and positions, and hamhanded attempts to intimidate. Tough shit. It's going to Denver. If you can make it there you can make it anywhere.

[Vinca]

39. Even if he "gets his ass handed to him," his ass is ahead.

Her only chance of getting the nomination is to have the superdelegates ignore the numbers going in and that would be the end of the Democratic Party.

[rug]

40. And he will have to haul his ass into Denver if he expects to win.

And no, Virginia, it will be neither the end of the Democratic Party nor the end of carbon-based life on this planet.

[Vinca]

41. Tell me how Hillary wins without the African American vote.

If there is any perception this nomination is stolen from Obama, she hasn't got a prayer.

[rug]

42. Tell me how Obama wins without the supers, the same ones you fear will steal the nomination?

And tell me how you can speak for the African American vote? Are you saying no African American will vote for her? Are you saying they'll vote Republican? Are you saying they are as childish as the posters here who say, if not Obama, I won't vote? Are you saying their vote means so little they'll sit back and let McCain hobble into the White House?

[Vinca]

44. What point to address first? The supers - there aren't enough

of them to sway the election one way or the other after a party nominee is chosen. I'm not speaking for the African American vote, I'm listening and reading and that's the impression I've gotten from many, many sources. That impression, by the way, is widely held. As for the last 3 questions you ask, you sound like numerous postings I've made about people who whine they won't vote if Obama is the nominee. In fact, far and away there are most pouty posters who say they'll vote for McBush or stay home if Obama is the nominee. To them I say, count the flag covered boxes, count the jobs being off shored, count the foreclosures, count the number of people without healthcare. They'll all skyrocket if McBush is elected.

[LeFleur1]

48. I Think I Heard....

Obama say that Michigan and Florida did not follow the rules so their voters can be disenfranchised. He is a great follower of rules UNLESS the rules include super delegates who may vote against him. Funny how that works.

[Milo_Bloom]

46. Football analogy for you....

The score is 49-0 and there is 1 minute left in the game.

Everyone now knows there is a winner and a loser.

HOWEVER, if the Winner declares victory and leaves the field... the loser could win, simply because something that was impossible with another field on the team (simply because of time), becomes possible when there is no one in your way.


Basically... Clinton would need the Superdelegates to break in her favor by 75%... Up until now, they have broken in her favor 53/47.

These remaining super delegates aren't lemmings... They are going to split between the candidates in some fashion and unless Obama walks off the field, it will probably be somewhat similar to the previous hundreds who have decided and that type of split... even close to that type of split... will easily make Obama the nominee.

[flowomo]

49. nice analogy! I enjoyed thinking about that....

I would add that "leaving the field" might not mean the presumptive loser wins by scoring 50 points in a minute, but because it would be ruled a "forfeit" insofar as the presumptive winner quit.

But I would suggest that the Clinton supporters would just redraw your example to say, perhaps, she is down 38-3 in the third quarter against a team with some weaknesses. Could she win?

EVANSTON, Ill. (AP) Oct 21, 2006 -- Nearly an hour after the game, Drew Stanton was trying to digest what he'd just been a part of -- the greatest comeback in NCAA Division I-A history.

Trailing 38-3 in the third quarter, Michigan State rallied Saturday for a 41-38 victory over Northwestern as the Spartans ended a four-game losing streak in dramatic fashion and momentarily took the heat off coach John L. Smith.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/recap?gameId=262940077

[JohnnyLib2]

58. Heh, should I mention "trash talk" along the way?

More to the philosophical point, the primary is not over and it may be that
the statements you mention come from a narrow focus. One gunshot, one heart attack, one plane crash, etc., and all changes.

I'm reminded of that old movie line, "I coulda been a contender....."
One is, or one isn't.

Terrific discussion. Recommended.

[backscatter712]

52. I'm not as worried about Hillary as I was anymore.

Wright was her last, worst shot. She's probably going to find other things to attack Obama with, but nothing as bad as the Rev. Wright "scandal" and the associated media circus.

And you know what, Obama responded brilliantly and torpedoed the swiftboat with the greatest speech America has heard since Martin Luther King Jr. said I Have A Dream.

That story no longer has legs. The cable news stations aren't running Wright's tape loop 24/7 anymore - probably because they're getting complaints.

Hillary and the GOP are both experiencing some blowback right now, as seen in today's Gallup poll, probably because they pushed Wright too hard, people started looking, especially when Obama made his speech, and learned that Wright is NOT a cartoon character, but a decent respectable human being who like all of us, occasionally puts his foot in his mouth.

That was it. That was the worst.

And again, Hillary's running out of money. The media's slowly losing interest in her campaign, and the fat lady is singing, especially when Bill Richardson made his endorsement.

She's gonna get Huckabeed. She'll still technically be in the race, but she'll get less media attention, be able to make fewer appearances, and her campaign will just run out of gas.

[anamandujano]

57. Wright was not Hillary's shot, it was Obama's unvetted @ss rearing

it's ugly head.

[melody]

62. Why do you keep discussing Obama's ass? lol

I mean, really. This is like your tenth post now focusing on Obama's buttocks. Or do you mean his symbolic donkey?

[anamandujano]

54. Great thread. Thank you. REC!

[flowomo]

55. is it just me, or was this actually a semi-civil discussion?

oh, it tilted toward the vitriol at points, but mostly people were being thoughtful and respectful. Nice to see in GDP

[Freida5]

61. I am willing to see how the voters vote-particularly the remaining states including

Michigan and Florida. I don't believe Obama can win a general election because of the Wright, Rezko, lack of experience, poor judgement, racism in his campaign, Ayers, Farakhan, drug use, alienation of many women by sexist campaign, weak legislative record, changing economic circumstances, changing situation in IRAQ, inability to win a big state in a primary, disenfrachising Florida and Michigan voters, amateurs in campaign which lied about NAFTA and Iraq, misleading voters, link to nuclear industry and rezko link to Iraq, link to banking industry. etc.