*CAN* Obama get to 2025 by the convention? Is it mathematically possible?

[Mezzo]

It seems like we're looking at a mathematical impossibility.

[shadowknows69]

1. If super delegates start flipping in large numbers perhaps

[UALRBSofL]

19. Yeah, he can have more then 2025 delegates including SD's

but that's the only way. And the good thing about it is because he can't the 2024 delegates without SD's before the convention, Hillary can stay in the race all the way to Denver and she will because she is going to win.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

2. Sure.

As soon as the states finish voting, superdelegates are going to come out in force.

Could be sooner.

Oddly, this is a sort of version of the 50 state strategy.

[PM7nj]

3. Neither can with pledged delegates only.

[Lucky 13]

4. Nope. But neither can Hillary overcome his lead.

SO DROP OUT NOW

[Mezzo]

6. Nope. His bigot pastor has sealed his fate, and you know it. nt

[anonymous171]

7. He's not a bigot. Just for your information.

[Lucky 13]

13. Nope. And no amount of spin is going to win this for Hillary. And you know it.

[rocktivity]

27. The bigot pastor sealed Hillary's fate, too

She's been trying to convince the superdelegates that Wright undermines Obama's electability without mentioning that she has a tie to Wright of her own. Not the way to score points--and it may have cost her points with Bill Richardson.

:headbang:
rocknation

[UALRBSofL]

28. I don't think he's a bigot

But I would say he is a racist.

[Mooney]

30. Jeremiah Wright could have a swastika tattoo on his forehead

and it wouldn't change Obama's lead in the pledged delegates or popular vote count. And the superdelegates, being spineless politicians when all is said and done, are not going to vote contrary to the popular vote. Doing that would put future elections at risk for them, and they're not going to take that risk.

[rug]

5. No.

[NJSecularist]

9. Yes he can. With the help of superdelegates.

[rug]

11. Yes she can. With the help of superdelegates.

There's your conundrum.

[NJSecularist]

15. You are right. But that looks unlikely at this point.

She is simply too far behind in the pledged delegate count.

[Honeycombe8]

20. What would be the basis of her getting superdelegates? Popular vote? Not likely.

Pledged delegate number? Impossible, apparently.

What would be the basis of the majority of superdelegates voting for her? Reminder: Superdelegates don't exist to name a nominee; they exist to clarify and streamline the process, throw more definitive support to the winner, or end a drawn out battle by supporting the obvious winner of the popular vote and pledged delegate vote but who isn't getting to the magic number.

So....there is no way the superdelegates can go for Clinton, unless they "throw" Obama out and "crown" the Clintons. This would split the party, and damage the party for years to come. I don't think the party will let that happen.

Are you seeing how it is, yet? This is just the way it is. Even if the superdelegates looooove the Clintons and want them to win, they cannot thwart the will of their voters and expect to win in November. Winning in November is the name of the game, after all.

[rug]

22. The race is still quite close, no matter how many magic formulae are posted.

Depending on how the last 10 primaries go, the race can get tighter still.

I don't think superdelegates should exist at all but since they do this year, it is entirely appropriate for them to consider the ebb and flow of the entire season, which states were and were not won, which states are in play for the GE, and how each of them have withstood the increased scrutiny they're getting.

If Clinton enters with the greater momentum, and if it's still very close, it's not at all unreasonable that the supers would shift to her.

The bottom line is, neither of them has an undivided, inevitable claim on the party's nomination. Neither of them has yet earned it.

[Johnny__Motown]

23. Cutting his lead to 100 pledged delegates won't make it close, she lost. deal with it

better luck next time

[rug]

25. It already is close. Deal with it.

[Honeycombe8]

24. Actually, no it's not close. He is pretty far ahead. To catch up w/him, she'd have to win

EVERY primary left by a majority of 60% or so, if that gives you an idea of how far ahead.

She is lower in popular votes. She is much lower in pledged delegates. I think she may be somewhat higher in superdelegates, still. But she is trending downward in that regard.

I believe in supporting your candidate, but I also believe in realism. Like it or not, Clinton will not and cannot win w/o the superdelegates, and they simply will not vote for her unless she is already winning. The party leaders will prevent that from happening, because that would mean a loss in November (perceived unfairness by Obama supporters would split the party).

Obama is damaged from the Wright issue, but like it or not, he is apparently going to be the nominee, unless something else really big happens to his candidacy. But he would have to sink, or the party take him out. Clinton cannot win it on her own, fairly, by votes.

[rug]

26. Not necessarily. Until FL and MI are solved you can't be certain of the delegate or popular vote.

[Honeycombe8]

31. Ah, yes. MI and FL. But that would have to be fair, whatever is done w/those states.

I can't imagine an outcome that everyone would think is fair. But I hope they come up with something.

Even so, getting most of those delegates won't bring her even close to Obama. He's pretty far ahead in pledged delegates. She'd still have to win every other primary from here on out, to catch up. And that won't happen, obviously.

[NJSecularist]

8. Yes he can. With the help of superdelegates.

Provided he and Hillary split up half of the remaining pledged delegates each, he needs a little less than 50% of the remaining superdelegates to commit to him to win the nomination.

[mohc]

10. Mathematically....yes

As of right now Obama needs about 398 delegates to reach 2024. With 566 remaining pledged delegates to allocate, winning 398 is obviously possible, but not likely. If Obama somehow wins Pennsylvania, Clinton may drop out, and with 408 delegates left Obama almost certainly would get 398 but then again he would get all the superdelegates anyway. It is quite conceivable that Obama could win in the range of 55% of remaining pledged delegates, especially if as the contest nears its end it seems more and more likely he will win. This would give him 311 more delegates, and he would just need 87 new superdelegates to reach 2024, about a quarter of the remaining superdelegates. Its hard to imagine Obama getting less than 1/4th of the superdelegates with the pledged delegate lead he would have in this situation, so unless very few superdelegates endorse between now and the convention.

[Yossariant]

12. B-b-b-but, if four fifths of the pledged and seven eighths of the governors and

twelve out of 16 Senators and six out of seven superdelegates and three out of five representatives ....

:crazy:

[Johnny__Motown]

14. With Superdelegates, yes, easily

[Hoof Hearted]

16. No.

[grantcart]

17. Yes (and the number is now 2024)

He only needs 407 Delegates there are 907 delegates left to either choose or sd to decide. He only needs 44% of those delegates to get the nomination.

[Honeycombe8]

18. With a few superdelegates. Clinton would have a much tougher time of it. nt

[Quixote1818]

21. It might occur after PA. Hillary will probably win PA but not by nearly enough

to get people thinking she could come from behind and win. With PA in the past Clinton will have no other big state to point to to pull her out of her huge hole. At that point the National dialog will change to "Clinton can't win" and pressure will mount for her to drop out. The Supers should start to abandon her and move toward Obama to unify the party and Hillary will be forced to drop out at that point.

[rocktivity]

29. Hillary's "magic number" is 65

that's the MINIMUM percentage she'll have to score in ALL the remaining contests if she wants any chance of making a legitimate case with the superdelegates.

:headbang:
rocknation