ABC News: Keystone Democrats Set to Defect

[robcon]

March 21, 2008 10:06 AM

"In the new Franklin & Marshall College Poll some good news for Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, and some troubling news for Democrats.

Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, 51% to 35% -- increasing her lead from February, when she was up 44% to 37%. She leads among young voters, wealthier voters...voters in virtually every demographic group, with the exceptions of Philly voters and non-whites.

In a sign of just how divisive and ugly the Democratic fight has gotten, only 53% of Clinton voters say they'll vote for Obama should he become the nominee. Nineteen percent say they'll go for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and 13% say they won't vote.

Sixty percent of Obama voters say they'll go for Clinton should she win the nomination, with 20% opting for McCain, and three percent saying they won't vote.

Grim."
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/03/keystone-democr.html

Poll pdf: http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keymar08_1.pdf

-----------------------------------------

I think this is grim indeed. We have two flawed candidates, flailing at each other, and to the detriment of a Democrat winning the White House in November. 19-20% of Obama or Clinton supporters in the primary will vote for McCain in the GE!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. I Keep Getting "Shot Down" But If There's Not A Unity Ticket We Likely Lose

~

[JackORoses]

3. There will be a Unity ticket. Hillary just won't be on it.

Sorry, I've been telling you this for months.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. If Either Aren't On The Ticket We Lose

Unless you can show me a path to the White House with Obama getting 36% of the white vote and Hillary Clinton getting 55% of the African American vote:

[JackORoses]

Do you really believe the Polls now represent what will happen in November?

I know you aren't that dense.

When it comes down to it, Real Democrats will trump racists every time.

It is sad that you have accepted Hillary's racial argument as your own.
At one time I thought you had more integrity than that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. I Didn't Know There Was A Negative Correlation

I didn't know there was a negative correlation between a person's integrity and his ability to look at data and make inferences...

Either candidate needs to get about 44% of the non African American vote to win...

[roguevalley]

40. let them bitch. during the run up to Nov. 4th, people will see what a

fucking disaster McCain would be and even diehard boneheads will vote for the nominee. The way I feel about Hillary right now, I am glad short of disaster it won't be her. I can empathize with others who feel the way they do about Obama. However, I will vote for the nom.

And if by some chance that a goon like McCain gets the nod (which will never happen) I will personally be happy to see the draft come back and make its ugly point about how the country is first and ego is second.

[kwenu]

19. Wrong. One will have to put the party first and enthusiastically endorse the winner.

Once full and unconditional support is given to the nominee we can put this thing together.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Like We Did In 68, 72, And 80 After Bitter Democratic Primaries

~

[kwenu]

35. 1968, embattled president, unpopular war. The other years you're off base.

[HereSince1628]

2. Two flawed candidates? What happened to "It's a great Democratic field"

Nah. It isn't two flawed delegates who climbed to the top and kicked out all the truly great candidates. It isn't that at all.

[Teaser]

8. Two great candidates whose followers tore each other to pieces

.

[HereSince1628]

15. At least within the confines of GD-P that seems metaphorically true

Thankfully we've got computers not terminator type robots

[robcon]

12. Either candidate would make a great president.

I think both of them, however, are bleeding the independent vote (and even the Democratic vote, according to this recent poll in Pennsylvania.) Their attacks on each other are backfiring, resulting in their loss of appeal outisde their core of Democratic supporters, IMO.

They are flawed, not in what they stand for or would do, but because the campaign has been ugly and bitter, and they've lost attraction among independents and independent-minded Democrats.

[graywarrior]

4. GD-P is so bi-polar.

[rug]

42. With interepisodal symptoms.

[LSK]

5. BOTH SIDES ARE FUCKING BATSHIT CRAZY INSANE TO FAVOR MCCAIN

FUCKING OBAMA AND CLINTON AGREE WITH PROBABLY 90% OF THE ISSUES. MCCAIN 20% IF HES LUCKY. YOU PEOPLE NEED TO GET YOUR FUCKING HEAD OUT OF YOUR ASS AND START THINKING.

:grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr:

[XemaSab]

11. .

:thumbsup:

[ClericJohnPreston]

7. Only confirms what we Edwards supporters always knew...

Edwards, a TRUE Democrat, representative of the LEFT-WING of the Party, would have been best. However, he was vetoed by the Dem leadership who wanted their historic showdown, and believed one candidate would emerge.

Surprise! Obama and Hillary are both divisive and neither packs a knockout punch. So, we lose the only candidate who would have demolished the Right, and who was really LEFT, not Repub-lite or worse, CORPORATIST approved.

Maybe the voting electorate will get it next time that you need a clear choice of left versus right, not Repub-lite.

[TahitiNut]

17. You misspelled 'Kucinich' ... but that's not unusual.

:silly:

[ClericJohnPreston]

29. No

I meant Edwards thank you very much!

[SoCalDem]

9. Woo.. she's up a whopping 3 points from Last November

when she was Queen Bee..winner of the whole shebang.. and Obama was at 15%....

back then , only 36% of PA voters said they would vote for her in a GE..sdn 40% said NO WAY..NEVER would they vote for her..

she's been working it for 3 months & only gained 3 points? in a state that's supposedly tailor-made for her?

Team-O never planned on winning PA..just staying close... to get delegates.. that;s what it's about..delegates...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Math Wasn't My Major In College

But I don't see how either candidate can win PN if half their opponent's supporters vote for McCain or stay home...

[SoCalDem]

18. Dems may NOT win PA.. it's never been a reliable state for us

but with the republicans ruining the economy, there are probably enough disgusted people who pay NO attention to the primaries..who will vote in the fall. perhaps they will do an "opposite team" vote this year...no matter who's the candidate :) :hi:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. It's Went Blue The Last Four Election Cycles

~

[book_worm]

10. By November the dems will be united and we will win PA

[Drunken Irishman]

13. I agree. People need to calm the fuck down.

Democrats will come home. I bet had they done polls like this in 2004, many Dean and Edwards supporters would've said they would not support Kerry in the general, when they did. People can say "I don't want to support _____" but when push comes to shove, they will.

[TwilightGardener]

16. I agree. Remember, just a few weeks ago the GOPers were all pissed about McCain.

[gauguin57]

22. yeah ... especially if mccain keeps bumbling and stumbling over himself ...

... like he has been during his Middle East sojourn.

[high density]

20. Defect? So Obama's support going down 2 points is now a" defection?"

That's an interesting read into this poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. The Poster Is Implying Dems Will Defect To Grand Pa If Their Candidate Isn't Chosen

~

[Kittycat]

24. This is just more proof that we need to put an end to this, and move forward

with our presumptive nominee. There is no way for Clinton to overturn this. We need time to heal the wounds, and waiting until Denver will be too late.

[robcon]

27. How do you propose to put it to an end?

My only suggestion is for a summit of Clinton and Obama, with a statement of principles - both on the platforms and an agreement to stop the sniping at each other.

Chance of that happening: slim and none.

[Justitia]

28. LOL - love this part: "with the exception of Philly..." As Philly goes, so goes PA. -eom

[NorthernSpy]

31. "with the exception of Philly" -- aka, that big place where everyone lives...

:eyes:

[Vinca]

30. If they "defect," they're morons. Self-centered morons at that.

How many more flag-covered boxes will it take? How many trillions of dollars in debt will we owe? How many dead from no healthcare? How many jobs overseas? How many foreclosed homes? We always snicker at Republicans who continually vote against their own self interest. A vote for McCain is a vote for more war, more trade deals and more suffering. It's hard to understand how people could be so stupid and care so little about their fellow citizens.

[RiverStone]

32. Wonder why Obama Dems seem more loyal to the ticket then Clinton's?

In other words, they go Dem no matter what against the puke nominee this fall.

[Justitia]

33. Folks, for this "poll", they called 400 Dems in PA, very, very small sample. -eom

[immoderate]

34. Maybe Hillary supporters are really Republicans.

I don't see Obama as a flawed candidate. I think these poll takers will be surprised on primary day. Whoever wins, it will be much closer.

--IMM

[Catherina]

36. Good riddance to anyone who can vote for McCain

The sooner we part ways, the better.

[robertpaulsen]

37. American Suicide.

It's my candidate, or four more years of fascism. :eyes:

[depakid]

38. I'd say this is a pretty good argument for a compromise candidate

to be chosen and endorsed by both Hillary and Obama at the convention....

[Yes We Did]

39. Okay, Hillary was up 19% 2 weeks ago, now she is up 16%...

Um... I don't know about you, but that looks like Obama has gained 3% in 2 weeks.

[dmr]

41. How many of these "Democrats" polled were recently Republican?

How many Republicans re-registered as a Democrat so they could vote for Hillary during the primaries? I've no clue, but do recall reading that Rush Limbaugh and friends were urging people to do this.

If you poll these "Democrats" are you getting honest results?

The Republicans have nothing to lose by this type of vote. Even if they don't switch back and are still registered as a Dem, they can still vote for McCain in the GE.

Just asking ....

[SoxFan]

43. Why does this come to mind?

[UALRBSofL]

44. And then throw MI/FL in where Obama blocked from having a re-vote

And you can imagine what that spells in the GE.