Arizona is in play, new poll shows satistical dead heat

[NMDemDist2]

The poll, conducted by KAET-TV and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University, showed Bush and Kerry in a dead heat – 41 to 38, with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent. 18 percent are still undecided.


http://www.kaet.asu.edu/horizon/poll/2004/4-29-04.htm

[pnorman]

1. That leaves 21% for "Naderites & "undecided".

I think that virtually all the Nader supporters will end up voting for the Democratic candidate. As for the rest? Sometime ago, there was a reference here on DU to a political commentator, who said that "undecided" votes generally break for the challenger. As I recall, this was a PRO-Bush guy.

I can almost TASTE the victory (although I'm not ruling out a Diebold coup, or a MIHOP "Trifecta").

pnorman

[NMDemDist2]

2. AZ is 10 electoral votes and went for Clinton in 96

Bush wants us BAD and it ain't looking good :bounce:

[Jeebo]

6. It was Dick Morris who said that...

<< Sometime ago, there was a reference here on DU to a political commentator, who said that "undecided" votes generally break for the challenger. As I recall, this was a PRO-Bush guy. >>

I remember that, too. It was Dick Morris who said that.

Ron

[Lexingtonian]

7. yep

The Incumbent Rule
http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm

Between relatively equal candidates Undecideds will split as low as 2:1 against the incumbent, if the the incumbent is a serious screwup and/or hated the split can be greater than 10:1. (That's why incumbents falling even a few percentage points under 50% tends to mean mortal peril to their chances.)

Arizona, it seems to me, is going to be harder for Kerry to win in November than New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, or Nevada. But probably easier than West Virginia, which seems to me to be his upper limit at present. I'll take any margin of victory, though. And the liberation of Arizona from the corrupt right wingers that control it now will be a good thing in any case, the sooner it begins the better.

[leyton]

11. Another interesting bit:

"Many challengers who did not get a majority of undecideds were recent or current holders of an office equal to the one they were seeking. Voters were equally or more familiar with the challenger’s past performance in a similar office, so the challenger assumed incumbent characteristics. Other exceptions include well-known challengers or short-term incumbents." (from the same site as above)

Kerry is from the Senate, so he definitely is not in an office equal to the one he's seeking. So I don't think he can assume incumbent characteristics. (Perhaps this is why Vice-Presidents do poorly as well - they assume these incumbent characteristcs, which I guess are mostly negative in the eyes of the undecideds?)

[aquart]

3. Arizona??????

Not a state I'd ever have picked for blue. Could it be the pissed off retirees?

[NMDemDist2]

4. thats a big part, also so many new people

many from liberal bastions like cal and oregon

[DaveSZ]

5. The state has been turning more and more blue

:kick:

[AntiCoup2K4]

8. There may be a lot of Republicans in Arizona, but....

...they're traditionalists. This is the state that produced Barry Goldwater and John McCain. The AZ pubs, for the most part aren't fans of the neocon agenda or the huge amounts of money Junior is wasting, most of it going straight to Halliburton.

And yes, the pissed off retirees could be some of them. But then a lot of those folks are "snowbirds", so they might not even be registered to vote in Arizona.

[NMDemDist2]

9. don't forget we have a Democrat Governor

The other good news in AZ is the party here has been taking the redistricting committee to court and we now have 5 very competitive house districts too.

[NMDemDist2]

10. here is a letter from AZ re: the Frontline show on */Jesus

"Dear FRONTLINE,

This program did indeed capture him perfectly. On inauguration he sweared to uphold the constition, not his own religious beliefs.

I have no problem with his beliefs, but they don't belong in the political arena for a specific political agenda.

No president before has ever made this great country so hated and disrepected. Not only by our enemies, but what we call our allies also.

Bret Graham
Scottsdale, AZ"

Scottsdale is the 'upscale' burb of Phoenix, which I would expect to be very Republican.

[Arugula Latte]

14. Also

the growing numbers of Hispanic voters who favor Democrats.

Yeee-haw! The future's lookin' good in Arizona.

[jsw_81]

19. Indeed

We see a similar trend (growing numbers of Democratic Hispanics) in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada etc.

Come 2020, the southwest is going to be solid Democrat.

[AgadorSparticus]

21. my elderly neighbor tells me her retirement circles are all hating bush

they were furious about the prescription medication restrictions and bush's whoring to the pharmaceutical companies. they were also screaming about the AARP sellout.

to add: and i am from tucson

[Mattforclark]

12. If McCain were VP

Arizona's 12 electoral votes would be 100% certain, as would Kerry's victory.

OK, time for me to put on my

[AgadorSparticus]

22. not to mention they will lose a senatorial seat. but i'm not asserting a

mccain vp ticket. nooooooooooo.

[Mattforclark]

13. twenty-six

"Twenty-six percent (26%) of the reasons given for supporting Bush described the President as a God-fearing, honest and moral leader."

:eyes:

[Stirling Newberry]

15. Arizona

WIth the booming growth of cities in Arizona has come the realization that liberalism has its good points. With the water crunch coming - read the New York Times article - it is clear that unrestrained growth isn't going to be possible.

But to turn this corner means realizing that there are core constituencies in Arizona that need to be spoken to, fiscal conservatives, rising Latino and Hispanic voting groups, and entrepreneurs who need to realize that responsible government is needed for economic expansion.

A great governor, who is a hard campaigner helps, and economic factors help. But what really helps is showing the people there that the Democratic Party is their natural home, and that we care about what makes the West great.

[Pale Blue Dot]

16. Hi Stirling Newberry!

Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

23. Funny thing is some of the more conservative communities

opted slow growth long ago...then they were taken for a ride by monied interests who claimed to be on their side...on the outskirts of Phoenix, local Repub candidate argue over who is MORE slow growth than the other..but then corporate developers end up getting their way anyway so these people are finally seeing that the only means to preserving their communities is THROUGH regulatory schemes.

It will be interesting to see how the tide turns.

[Leilani]

17. Wes Clark finished 2nd to Kerry in Arizona & New Mexico

I think he would be a popular VP choice.

Arizona is very pro-military, isnt it?

[in_cog_ni_to]

18. Arizona LOVES Wes Clark!

He NEEDS to be on the ticket! If he is, watch the Arizona polls go sky high for the Kerry/Clark ticket!

[NMDemDist2]

20. yup I am tending to like Clark a bunch for VP

I don't think we would do well with 2 senators on the ticket and other than Ed Rendell I'm not crazy about any governors (you CANT have Janet)

[Zomby Woof]

24. I tried helping

By moving here last year from a reliably blue state. :-)

[GOPBasher]

25. I'm glad this is still trending blue, but I have a question:

Does anyone know how big the Christian Right is in Arizona? I saw that an earlier poster said these Repubs in AZ are "traditionalists" and they don't like neocons. That's cool. But what about the Christian Right? Goldwater was never a fan of them, so I'm hoping the state as a whole is cold to them.

[ijk]

26. belated answer

The hardcore christian right, the evangelical-fundie types that go for your Pat Robertsons and Jerry Falwells, have little place in AZ politics. There's plenty of the standard, more mild association of christianity with conservatism, of course, but the real dominant themes of the party here are libertarian-leaning, I think.

[ButterflyBlood]

27. not very big at all

there's a bunch of Mormons but even they aren't as hard right as the ones in Utah.

[AgadorSparticus]

31. the ones i've spoken to tend to be maverick mormons

fled from utah and family because it was too strict and confining.

[SiouxJ]

28. And this is with Shrub's ads running about every 5 minutes!

I would estimate, based on my own personal experience, that Shurb's ads are running 10 to 1 (vs Kerry's) on local TV. It bodes well that this poll shows a dead heat when Kerry hasn't even fired up his ad campaign here yet. The Shrub camp has been pounding away day and night already.

It's true that this state is swinging slightly left. We even managed to elect a Dem. governor. There are a lot of retired Vets here and I'm sure they don't like seeing Kerry being attacked for his military service. Also, there are tons and tons of California transplants (cost of living and real estate here is cheap compared to CA, so people are cashing in their real estate there and moving here in droves). I am one of them, though I beat the rush and moved here back in '96 (from San Diego).

I remain hopeful that we can win this state. We just need Kerry to spend some time here. Shrub came to my small town and gave a speech right before the 2000 election and it was a HUGE deal.

[democratreformed]

29. GO ARIZONA!!!!

I'm visiting there the end of this month. My aunt lives near Bullhead City.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

30. Wasn't it really close in 2000? eom