THE MATH – Monday Night, March 17

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH – Monday Night, March 17

9:30 p.m. Eastern Time (US)

Updates and additions today:
- Polls and the Magic Number
- Weighted Popular Vote (based on turnout-by-population)
- Updated pledged delegate and superdelegate totals

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.0 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,669.0 of 3,235.0 – 82.5%

********************************************

THE MAGIC NUMBER

Here’s what we have after considering the information in the Polls section below:

Obama’s Magic Number – 110.5 of 318 remaining superdelegates needed, or 34.7%
Clinton’s Magic Number – 226.5 of 318 remaining superdelegates needed, or 71.2%

********************************************

TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of March 17:
Hillary Clinton – 1,504.5 (519.5 short)
Barack Obama – 1,640.5 (383.5 short)
Remaining Delegates – 884.0
(Sources: NBC, Wikipedia 3/17/08)
Wikipedia link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Hillary Clinton – 255 (Source: NBC 3/17/08)
Barack Obama – 221 (Source: NBC 3/17/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 318

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of March 17:
Hillary Clinton – 1,249.5
Barack Obama – 1,419.5
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 566.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/17/08)

“Primary Only” Pledged Delegates as of March 17: (for informational purposes only)
Hillary Clinton – 1,090.0
Barack Obama – 1,107.0
(Source: Countdown with Keith Olbermann, 3/10/08, plus MS)

“Caucus Only” Pledged Delegates as of March 17: (for informational purposes only)
Hillary Clinton – 159.5
Barack Obama – 312.5
(based on source for “primary only” pledged delegates above)

OVERALL CONTESTS WON

Hillary Clinton – 15
Barack Obama – 30
(Source: DailyKos 3/17/08)

PRIMARIES WON

Hillary Clinton – 12
Barack Obama – 16

CAUCUSES WON

Hillary Clinton – 3
Barack Obama – 14

BLUE AND RED STATES WON

Hillary Clinton – 6 Blue, 8 Red
Barack Obama – 11 Blue, 16 Red

POPULAR VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Status Quo as of March 17 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,644,666
Hillary Clinton – 12,903,848
(Source: Wikipedia 3/17/08 plus states listed above)

Total weighted* popular vote as of March 17:
Barack Obama – 15,764,931
Hilary Clinton – 14,093,210
*Weighted popular vote adds primary votes and 5.5:1 skew of caucus votes

Primaries only (Status Quo) as of March 17 (includes WA):
Barack Obama – 13,173,496
Hillary Clinton – 12,639,549

Caucuses only (Status Quo) as of March 17:
Barack Obama – 471,170
Hillary Clinton – 264,302
(IA,NV,AK,AS,CO,ID,KS,MN,NM,ND,NE,VI,WA*,ME,HI,TX*,WY,Guam)

With Florida only added, as of March 17 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 14,220,880
Hillary Clinton – 13,774,834

With Michigan only added, as of March 17* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,644,666
Hillary Clinton – 13,232,157
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Florida AND Michigan added, as of March 17* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 14,220,880
Hillary Clinton – 14,103,143
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

********************************************

SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PRIMARY DELEGATES ARE 50/50 SPLIT

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 237 of 318, or 74.4% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Clinton needs 249 of 332, or 74.8% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 226 of 332, or 68.1% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Clinton needs 244 of 330, or 73.8% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Clinton needs 242 of 320, or 75.5% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Clinton needs 229 of 320, or 71.6% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Clinton needs 236 of 332, or 71.1% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 234 of 330, or 70.8% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 239 of 332, or 71.8% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 101 of 318, or 31.6% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Obama needs 123 of 332, or 36.9% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Obama needs 212 of 332, or 63.9% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Obama needs 114 of 330, or 34.4% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Obama needs 110 of 320, or 34.2% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Obama needs 135 of 320, or 42.2% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Obama needs 148 of 332, or 44.6% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Obama needs 178 of 330, or 53.8% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Obama needs 187 of 332, or 56.2% of remaining SDs

Going 50/50 here on out, in Senator Clinton’s best case scenario, she would still need more than two-thirds of the remaining superdelegates to win the nomination.

On the other hand, Senator Obama’s superdelegate needs would be at a disadvantage ONLY if the Michigan delegation is seated as is, from the January results, in a 50/50 scenario. With the possibility of a new primary in Michigan on June 3, these disadvantages quickly disappear.

********************************************

SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PRIMARY DELEGATES ARE 55/45 CLINTON

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 208 of 318, or 65.3% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Clinton needs 204 of 332, or 61.4% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 197 of 332, or 59.3% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Clinton needs 209 of 330, or 63.2% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Clinton needs 203 of 320, or 63.4% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Clinton needs 200 of 320, or 62.5% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Clinton needs 201 of 332, or 60.5% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 205 of 330, or 62.0% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 200 of 332, or 60.2% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 130 of 318, or 40.7% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Obama needs 167 of 332, or 50.3% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Obama needs 241 of 332, or 72.6% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Obama needs 149 of 330, or 45.0% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Obama needs 148 of 320, or 46.3% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Obama needs 164 of 320, or 51.3% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Obama needs 183 of 332, or 55.1% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Obama needs 207 of 330, or 62.6% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Obama needs 225 of 332, or 67.8% of remaining SDs

Giving Senator Clinton a 55/45 edge in pledged delegates from here on out will still require her campaign to pick up about 60% or more of the remaining superdelegates IN EVERY SCENARIO.

The 55/45 disadvantage in pledged delegates from here on out for Senator Obama’s campaign would still put forth three scenarios where they would need less than half of the remaining superdelegates to clinch the nomination, and two more with almost even odds (Scenarios 2 and 6). If Michigan holds a new primary on June 3, we could remove the three scenarios with large disadvantages for Senator Obama, and arrive at a worst-case scenario of 55.1% (Scenario 7). Scenario 7’s impact would be reduced to about 50% if only half of the Florida delegation is seated.

*********************************************

FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS REGARDING PLEDGED DELEGATES

These are all the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and what it would require for Senator Clinton to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. The presumption here is that most remaining superdelegates will support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates from the state and territory contests.

If new elections are held in Florida and Michigan, the primary season is still almost done. Pledged delegates in would be 2,669.0 of 3,540.0, or 75.4%.

Changes in the number of delegates are considered in the percentages below.
With Florida, add 185 delegates (Clinton 105, Obama 67)
With Michigan, add 128 delegates (Clinton 74, Obama 0)
With Florida and Michigan, add 313 delegates (Clinton 179, Obama 67)

The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated. (See more below this section for information about what the “status quo” is)

Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan)
CLINTON NEEDS 65.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 35.0%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 2 – New elections in Florida and Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 59.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.3%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 3 – Michigan seated as is, Florida seated as is
CLINTON NEEDS 55.1%, OBAMA NEEDS 44.9%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 4 – Florida not seated, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 62.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 37.8%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 5 – Michigan not seated, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 61.3%, OBAMA NEEDS 38.7%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 6 – Florida seated as is, Michigan not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 61.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 38.3%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 7 – Florida seated as is, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 59.5%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.5%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 8 – Michigan seated as is, Florida not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 58.5%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.5%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 9 – Michigan seated as is, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 56.4%, OBAMA NEEDS 43.6%, in all remaining contests

********************************************

THE NEW ELECTIONS SCENARIO

Looking at Scenario 2 above, if both Florida and Michigan hold new primaries, Senator Clinton will need to win an average of 59.7% in all the remaining contests, including Florida and Michigan, to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. That’s considerably higher than the 55.1% she would need on average in every remaining contest if Florida and Michigan’s delegates were seated based on the January primary results. Senator Clinton has achieved 59.7% in only one state during this primary season.

On the other side of the coin, if new elections are held in Michigan and Florida, Senator Obama will need to win an average of 40.3% in all the remaining primaries, including Florida and Michigan, to maintain his lead over Senator Clinton in pledged delegates. Even though that’s higher than the 35.0% he would need under status quo in all the remaining contests, it’s still highly probable to achieve.

Clinton’s wins over 59%: (1)
Arkansas – 70%

Obama’s wins over 59%: (18)
Idaho – 80%
Hawaii – 76%
Alaska – 75%
Kansas 74%
Nebraska – 68%
Washington – 68%
Colorado – 67%
Georgia – 66%
Minnesota – 66%
Illinois – 65%
Virginia – 64%
Louisiana – 62%
North Dakota – 62%
Mississippi – 61%
Wyoming – 61%
Maine – 60%
Maryland – 60%
Vermont – 59%

********************************************

POLLS FOR UPCOMING CONTESTS, USED TO DERIVE THE “MAGIC NUMBER”

Polls have been released for some of the upcoming contests. Where no polls are available, I have marked it as “No Poll” and used a 50/50 calculation for that contest’s pledged delegates. Obviously this information will change, and I plan on updating these calculations whenever we have new or updated polls.

Pennsylvania (April 22)
Real Clear Politics average has Senator Clinton as +16.0%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

Guam (May 3)
No Poll

Indiana (May 6)
USA Election Polls shows Senator Obama with +15.0%
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/indiana.html

North Carolina (May 6)
Real Clear Politics average has Senator Obama as +8.2%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html

West Virginia (May 13)
Mark Blankenship Enterprises (as reported in the Charleston Daily Mail) shows Senator Clinton with +21.0%
http://www.dailymail.com/News/election08/200802260192

Kentucky (May 20)
No Poll

Oregon (May 20)
Riley Research Polls have Senator Clinton as +8.0%
http://www.rileyresearch.com/polls/2008_1_31_riley_report.pdf

Puerto Rico (June 1)
No Poll

Montana (June 3)
Mason-Dixon shows Senator Clinton with +12.0%
http://billingsgazette.net/articles/2008/01/02/news/state/16-polls.txt

South Dakota (June 3)
No Poll

If anyone has links to new or more recent polls, please share. Thanks!

********************************************

MEMO FROM DNC DATED MARCH 5 REGARDING FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN

This is quoted here to show the current “Status Quo” used in the figures above.

Democratic National Committee’s official stance on Florida and Michigan as of March 5, in a press release from Howard Dean:

"We're glad to hear that the Governors of Michigan and Florida are willing to lend their weight to help resolve this issue. As we've said all along, we strongly encourage the Michigan and Florida state parties to follow the rules, so today's public overtures are good news. The rules, which were agreed to by the full DNC including representatives from Florida and Michigan over 18 months ago, allow for two options. First, either state can choose to resubmit a plan and run a process to select delegates to the convention; second, they can wait until this summer and appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee, which determines and resolves any outstanding questions about the seating of delegates. We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time. The Democratic Nominee will be determined in accordance with party rules, and out of respect for the presidential campaigns and the states that did not violate party rules, we are not going to change the rules in the middle of the game.”

Source: http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/03/dean_statement_45.php

(emphasis mine)

********************************************

BROKERED CONVENTION

Feel free to share your thoughts and concerns about a possible brokered convention this year. I’d love to hear thoughtful conversation from all sides.

Link here from wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention

********************************************

OFFICIAL DELEGATE SELECTION RULES FOR THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION

The link below takes you to the pdf file from the Democratic Party with the official rules for this year’s primary season. I’m still looking for actual rules or guidelines for the convention balloting process. Any links will be greatly appreciated!

Link here from democrats.org:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/apache.3cdn.net/de68e7b6dfa0743217_hwm6bhyc4.pdf



********************************************

Link to the spreadsheet (feel free to download and make your own scenarios):
http://www.box.net/shared/xnx7q7hk0o

********************************************



Please keep this thread bumped for easier access in GDP.



.

[phrigndumass]

1. Granting permission to use information herein on DU

I am granting permission for everyone to use any of this information, in whole or in part, in other threads here on DU, and anywhere on the internet.

- phrigndumass

[Voice for Peace]

8. Thanks! nt

[Kittycat]

2. Can I just say..

You do a great job on this, and I've come to look forward to reading it every day. I'm sure it's no easy task, so thank you :)

[phrigndumass]

5. Thanks Kittycat

I enjoy doing this, and you're right ... it's no easy task. It's a labor of love for DU.

So thanks for reading!

:hi:

[MannyGoldstein]

3. You Obama People With Your 'Facts' And 'Math'

As I write this, Bill's meeting with a 'businessman' in Uzbekistan who'll teach you all some real math.

[phrigndumass]

10. Uzbekistan

:rofl:

:headbang:

[grantcart]

4. thanks

[stop the bleeding]

6. FACTS? is that all you got punk?

God I love your posts - thank you, your information is awesome!


I drink to that:beer::toast:

[phrigndumass]

13. Facts, and my dukes

Ya got somethin' ta say about it? Put 'em up!

Or we could settle it Zell Miller's way ... a duel. Name your poison.

:rofl:

Thanks!

[Scurrilous]

7. K & R

:thumbsup:

[SunsetDreams]

9. Thank you phrigndumass

I admire all your hard work, thank you for taking the time and energy to do it.

Recommending and kicking

[phrigndumass]

14. Thanks for reading, SunsetDreams!

What a nice compliment!

:hi:

[Adelante]

11. Just wonderful

Thank you :)

[byronius]

12. Sweet.

[Forkboy]

15. Off topic, but what does your avatar say?

Oh, and good post! :)

[phrigndumass]

16. Avatar says "Truth"

Thanks!

:hi:

[Forkboy]

25. That's awesome...thanks!

[me b zola]

17. Obama has won more primaries then Clinton!

PRIMARIES WON

Hillary Clinton – 12
Barack Obama – 16

With all of the dissing the Clinton camp has been doing of caucuses, the way that the spin has been spun, I thought that Clinton had won more primaries. It seems as though her entire campaign is a house of cards.

[nxylas]

45. More blue states too

So much for the spin about how Obama can only win the states that will vote for McCain in the GE.

[TheDoorbellRang]

18. kicking for the MATH

thanks for the update!

[quantass]

19. Wow that is a lot of EXCELLENT info!

[phrigndumass]

27. Thanks quantass!

:hi:

[TheDoorbellRang]

20. Oh, I forgot to ask

How did you come up with the formula to estimate popular vote totals in caucus states?

[phrigndumass]

23. It's turnout-by-population ...

Take the 27 states where primaries were held, total up their population, and there was a 13.2% average turnout to vote in the democratic primaries.

Take the 13 states where caucuses-only were held, total up their population, and there was a 2.4% average turnout to vote in the democratic caucuses.

13.2% is to 2.4% as 5.5 is to 1. It is skewed 5.5 to 1, so you multiply the caucus votes by 5.5 to weight it and estimate a popular vote total.

Neat, huh?

:dunce:

[TheDoorbellRang]

26. Aha! Very nice

Thank you!

[uponit7771]

21. Numbers are against her, I pray she likes math

[phrigndumass]

24. A lot of us are praying ...

:hi:

Edited for the wave, gotta have the wave. It's like cowbell.

[housewolf]

22. Kick

[meow mix]

28. nice i love the math

kick!

[NDambi]

29. It Must Be a Labor of Love...because you always do it so well..thanks!

[phrigndumass]

32. Thanks for reading!

What a nice compliment ...

:hi:

[adoraz]

30. excellent job!

[phrigndumass]

31. Did anyone else catch MSNBC giving away NBC's superdelegate tally?

Did anyone else catch MSNBC giving away NBC's superdelegate tally? NBC had been holding their cards close, but you could read in between the lines in the MSNBC puffpiece for Senator Clinton on Monday afternoon.

Link:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23677857/

Quoted from the MSNBC article linked above:

"Obama leads Clinton, 1,617-1,498, in The Associated Press' count. That advantage masks a larger lead among pledged delegates, which are won in primaries and caucuses. Obama leads Clinton by 155 pledged delegates, 1,404-1,249, while she leads 249-213 among superdelegates, a margin of 36.

(The Associated Press and NBC news conduct separate delegate counts. NBC's national delegate count currently stands at 1,625 for Obama and 1,504 for Clinton.)"

See that? Do the math, and you'll see that NBC has 255 superdelegates for Senator Clinton and 221 superdelegates for Senator Obama. Sometimes reading in between the lines is beneficial!

:dunce:

[phrigndumass]

44. 255 to 221 NBC superdelegate tally

That's only +34 superdelegates for Senator Clinton's campaign.

[phrigndumass]

33. Bump for the left coast

.

[phrigndumass]

50. nt

[grantcart]

34. I was curious what add on delegates were and this is what I found

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5126016

[phrigndumass]

35. Read: Add-on delegates

Looks like Senator Obama will gain another 10 to 15 delegates from add-ons, then.

:thumbsup:

Good night!

[ORDem]

36. Thanks again for the great stats AND especially for the weighted popular vote.

Most people really don't get it how big Obama's pop. vote lead really is, because the caucus votes "shrink" it. That's why we need to look at the pledged delegates, which is a truer number.

:kick:

[phrigndumass]

42. Thanks for reading, ORDem!

Weighting the popular vote is the only fair way to consider that statistic as a viable one.

:hi:

[jgraz]

37. Question: Since FL will likely not be seated, does the 2024 number decrease?

[phrigndumass]

39. 2024 is without Florida ... If FL is seated 2024 will increase

:hi:

[NM Independent]

38. I swear the...

...only reason she's staying in is to turn it over in an unfair fashion.

When she does she will lose the youth vote for Dems that is mostly going for Obama, and then we're screwed.

I wonder if Penn is just convincing her to stay in the race to help his firm get McCain elected?

[phrigndumass]

43. I don't know about Mr. Penn, but ...

I appreciated Ernest Partridge's journal entry today and his take on things.

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/CrisisPapers/159

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

40. Quinnipiac has Senator Clinton as +12.0, not +16.0

This poll changes the magic numbers ...

Senator Obama - 107.5 of the remaining superdelegates needed
Senator Clinton - 229.5 of the remaining superdelegates needed

That's three closer for Senator Obama.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

41. For you Hillary supporters: 2 + 2 = 4

[phrigndumass]

46. Thanks to everyone for putting THE MATH on the front page!

:yourock:

[biglefthander]

47. thanks for this!

Love it. Props to you for the hard work.

[phrigndumass]

48. Thanks for reading!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

49. Tuesday: Neither FL nor MI will hold redo primaries?

I guess that's why they call it the "status quo" ...

Scenario 1 is looking more and more like the scenario du jour. The magic number for Senator Obama is sitting at 107.5 on Tuesday, or only 33% of the remaining superdelegates. The "Pelosi Number", per grantcart, is 223. That's more than twice as many needed.

Do we have any reason to suspect the tide going against Senator Obama's campaign, after that great speech today?

[StClone]

51. Why don't you add Polls: Clinton/Obama vs McInsane?

Your wonderful post and my tweak together make perfect.