New Ras Polls show Mccain Well Ahead While Obama's ratings are starting to plummet

[acrosstheuniverse]

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Monday, March 17, 2008
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The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain with a six-percentage point lead over both potential Democratic opponents. McCain currently leads Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton by an identical 48% to 42% margin. McCain has a double-digit lead over Clinton among unaffiliated voters and is essentially even with Obama among those same voters. However, McCain makes greater inroads among Democrats with Obama as the nominee.

McCain has gained ground against both Democrats in recent days as stories about Obama’s former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright, have been widely discussed(see recent daily results). Wright is viewed favorably by just 8% of American voters and 73% consider his comments racially divisive.

The dialogue about Wright’s controversial comments appears to have had at least a short-term impact on public perceptions of Barack Obama. The Illinois Senator is viewed favorably today by just 47% of voters nationwide. That’s down five points since last Thursday (see recent daily results). The number with an unfavorable view of Obama has risen from 44% on Thursday to 50% today. Among White voters, Obama is now viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 54%.

Looked at from a slightly longer perspective, Obama’s overall favorable ratings peaked at 56% on February 21, shortly after he won the Wisconsin Primary. At that point, Clinton began raising questions about Obama as part of the campaign that ultimately enabled her to win the Texas and Ohio Primaries. Since then, Obama’s net favorability ratings have fallen seventeen points (from plus 14 points on February 21 to minus 3 points today).

McCain, visiting Iraq and left out of the Democratic mudslinging, is now viewed favorably by 54%, unfavorably by 42%. Clinton is viewed favorably by 46%, unfavorably by 52%. Her unfavorable total has been at or above 50% for most of the past month (see recent daily results). Negative attitudes towards Clinton remain more firmly entrenched than for the other candidates—35% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Clinton, 29% say the same about Obama, and 18% hold such a negative view of McCain.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Monday’s numbers show Obama with 46% support from Likely Democratic Primary Voters while Clinton earns 44% of the vote (see recent daily results). Among Democrats, Clinton leads 48% to 42%, but Obama has a substantial lead among unaffiliated voters likely to participate in a Democratic Primary.

Obama continues to enjoy overwhelming support from African-American voters while Clinton leads by seventeen points among White voters. Robert Novak takes a look at the Democrats’ Racial Divide and Geraldine Ferraro’s puzzling role in highlighting the divide. A recent Rasmussen Reports poll found that just 37% hold a favorable opinion of Ferraro and that most disagree with her recent comments.

Democrats now lead in states with 214 Electoral Votes while the GOP leads in states with 189 Electoral Votes. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 247 to 229. Recent polling shows that, over the past month, McCain has gained ground in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Both Democrats continue to lead in New York, Connecticut and California (see summary of recent state general election polling).

Democrats also retain a modest lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Tuesday at 11:00 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.

Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a 71.8% chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at 28.8%. Market data also suggests that Obama has a 43.6% chance to become the next President. Expectations for McCain to become President are at 39.7% while Clinton’s prospects are at 17.7%. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

[acrosstheuniverse]

1. this is not good

not good at all

[faithfulcitizen]

3. welcome to DU, it'll be alright.

[Traction311]

63. Well, if neither can get the number of deligates needed by the convention

Maybe, just maybe, John Edwards can sneak in. Ahh, we can always dream...

[AGirl]

2. Interesting.

[neverforget]

4. instead of going after each other, maybe they should attack McCain.

that's a novel thought. Democrat vs Republican instead of Democrat vs Democrat.

[mnhtnbb]

65. Precisely. DFA is now compiling signatures to send open letter to Obama & Hillary

with just that message. See my thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5124092&mesg_id=5124092

[Nedsdag]

5. Way to go, Hillary!

Thanks for dragging the campaign into the mud with your play of the race card.

[tridim]

6. The minute she drops out or is forced out, Obama will regain his significant leads..

over McPain.

[Mags]

8. give it a break, the Rev. Wright and his relationship with BO

being made public and the News channels being forced to cover it , is the reason for the start of free fall.

[EFerrari]

12. No. This is yet another Clinton attempt to marginalize Obama.

The problem is they are really bad at what they do and have already lost the nomination. I'm sure Dean has a few choice words for them, too.

[anamandujano]

27. You guys are terminally delusional.

[EFerrari]

31. Considering that Pelosi pretty much told Clinton to go home

over the weekend, I'd say the delusion is on the other foot.

[Straight Shooter]

39. Pelosi. There's a stellar example of leadership.

As Matthews would say, "Ha!"

She just wants to be the most powerful woman in politics and she wants Rahm Emanuel out of the House. Obama as POTUS means Emanuel runs for the Illinois Senate and it's a cinch he'll get it.

Pelosi is going for a twofer. BTW, one of Obama's political nicknames is "Pelosi with wingtips." There's a reason for it.

[EFerrari]

40. I'm no Pelosi fan and remember, she disowned me.

:)

[Straight Shooter]

46. I don't understand the reference to being disowned.

I was a fan of Pelosi, for about 30 days. :(

[EFerrari]

48. Remember, she hasn't had a townhall here for almost two years now,

iirc, so Code Pink went and demonstrated outside her house. Pelosi told the media that the demonstrators weren't her constituents and said she'd like to have them arrested just like homeless people are arrested here?

I wasn't there at the time, but since I do get out to CP actions sometimes, I assumed she meant me, too.

[Straight Shooter]

49. I see.

Well, Pelosi is certainly full of herself, wanting demonstrators arrested who offend her sensibilities. Sometimes I wonder why we even have Congress Critters to begin with.

I'm outta here today. Have a good one! :hi:

[EFerrari]

62. You, too!

:hi:

[Pawel K]

51. So now Pelosi is the enemy?

Shit, who isn't the enemy at this point for you idiots willing to sabotage the party because you can't cope with the fact that you already lost?

You already think Olbermann is the enemy. So is Kennedy. So is DU. So is huffington post. So I ask, who isn't the enemy at this point? Krugman, is that all you got?

This is the exact thing you did when Obama started winning all those states, suddenly all those states didn't count.

Or maybe you guys should get a fucking clue and actually listen to what these brilliant people are telling you? (when I say brilliant I have to mention I don't fit pelosi in that position)

[Straight Shooter]

66. Enjoying your Grand Canyon leap of a conclusion?

I don't like Pelosi. Did I say she's "the enemy"?

Please, find a hammock and relax for a while. You're wound up just a wee bit too tight today.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

73. Obama supporters have thrown a lot more people under the bus than Hillary's

Joseph Wilson, the Edwards, Paul Krugman, Wesley Clark, etc., etc., etc.

[Pawel K]

74. I dont ever remember those people being thrown under the bus

as a Obama supporter I still have great respect for Wes Clark, just don't agree with him on who he supports. All the others you mentioned I have no issues with, I just think they are making the wrong choice in their support.

Instead people like "Straight Shooter" actually smear the person because they support Obama. Let me give you some recent examples.

KO is a sellout that says what he says for ratings.

Nobody cares about Kennedy anymore.

And Pelosi is just saying what she is saying to get a head.

I have not seen any Obama supporters get personal with Wilson, Edwards, Krugman, or Clark. It is the norm for Clinton supporters to get personal with Obama supporters.

[cali]

67. I'd say you little hilly supporters are the ones terminally delusional

thinking that hilly dear has anything but the slimmest chance to win the nomination. Obama will have to implode or that to be possible, and I don't think Wright will do it. Tough shit for hilly and you hilly lovers.

[publicatlarge]

41. How are Rasmussen Polls a Clinton campaign tactic?

?

[EFerrari]

43. That wasn't my statement. n/t

[Nedsdag]

20. The Clinton people played like the Bush people did

regarding the Swiftboat ads.

[usregimechange]

21. She would do anything to get elected...

[Rageneau]

32. Stop blaming Hillary for Obama's self-inflicted wounds.

When you were growing up, who did you blame for things you did wrong when you didn't want to take responsibility for them? I tried to blame imaginary people, but my mom wouldn't buy it.

Too bad I didn't live next door to you. You could have taught me how to blame Hillary whenever I screwed up. Like you're trying to teach BO to do.

[Beacool]

69. HER play on the race card??? Way too funny!!!!!!

I guess that she told Rev. Wright to insult her on his Christmas sermon (of all days to spew venom). I guess she also forced him to G-D the US after 9/11.

Yep, it's all Hillary's fault.......

[Larkspur]

7. Hillary has done Rush Limbaugh's work for him

The Clinton's selfishness will hurt the Democratic Party. There is no way I'll vote for Hillary if she becomes the nominee. She chose to walk the Karl Rove path. That is unforgivable for a Dem nominee.

[kennetha]

11. You can't blame Hillary

for Obama's choice of a pastor. Obama chose Wright as his spiritual counselor. Unfortunately that choice just doesn't fit with his self-presentation as a transracial apostle of a new politics. Something serious has to give. I'm not sure what. But something has to give.

[EFerrari]

15. Wright himself said a year ago that he didn't mentor Obama.

What I'm waiting for is for someone to pull out tape of Bill Clinton in the same church or in another one with a similar style. I give it a week.

[Larkspur]

18. The pastor didn't bring him down

It's too recent and anyway he didn't say anything the ancient prophet Jerimiah wouldn't say to the corrupt ruling elite. Actually what he said was tame compared to what Falwell, Robertson, and Hagee have said. McCain is not revoking their help.

Hillary using McCain talking points against Obama and playing the fearmongering game has done damage to Obama. Hillary is like a drowning woman who will drown her rescuer along with herself. She is selfish and only cares about herself.

[EFerrari]

9. Nice going, Hillary! n/t

[KansDem]

10. So, when does the Whoreth Estate report on McCain's attempt to join Dems?

Kerry-McCain: McCain's Crew Approached the Kerry Campaign
by Jonathan Singer, Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 04:19:04 PM EST

Following up on Todd's post on John McCain blowing up at New York Times reporter Elisabeth Bumiller over a question regarding the much talked about possibility that he would run on a ticket with John Kerry in 2004, I think it's worth going back to the record -- in this case the exclusive interview Kerry had with MyDD just one year ago in which he revealed that it was McCain's staff who had approached the Kerry campaign, not the other way around.

--more--
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/7/155722/0130

Maybe if Repubs realized their Golden Boy almost jumped ship, we'd see his numbers plummet...

[Swamp Rat]

13. Divide and conquer

[NJSecularist]

14. The only thing that will solve this is for Hillary to offer her resignation tommorow. n/t

[texas_indy]

16. "plummet" is only used by the OP, and not mentioned anywhere in the article...agenda anyone?

from the article:

Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a 71.8% chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at 28.8%. Market data also suggests that Obama has a 43.6% chance to become the next President. Expectations for McCain to become President are at 39.7% while Clinton’s prospects are at 17.7%. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.


Looks like the actual authors of the article don't agree with the OP.

[nickn777]

22. a nearly 10% drop in favorability rating.......

56% say they are "less likely" to vote for Obama after Wright scandal.

Maybe "plummet" is not the right word, but this story has permanently changed the image that BO once possessed.

[texas_indy]

This story didn't change anything, This story only reported polls for a specific point in time.

"permanently changed the image"

This is true for all candidates in all times. No image is consistent for the entire time for a candidate.


You'll see his positive numbers improve again after he becomes the official nominee and gets to fight only McDud, and not McDud and Hillary at the same time.

[nickn777]

30. I still disagree right now...

56% are "less likely" to vote for Obama because of the Wright scandal. In a time where elections are ever so close, every percentage point is huge....if you think Wright's sermons, played all September and October, are going to convince swing voters in flyover country to vote for Obama, well then.....

[Drunken Irishman]

35. 56% of people are less likely to vote for Obama? Bunk.

I don't care what a poll says. If you actually believe almost 60% of voters are now less likely to vote for Obama over something his pastor said, I have a bridge to sell ya'.

[texas_indy]

37. Not surprising you don't agree since you've already stated your preference for Hillary.

As I stated already, Obama's positives will go back up and the negatives will go back down once he is the official party nominee. Obama's pastor is not a big issue for many people and it will only get smaller and smaller as the contest ends up between a wanna-be-bush and Obama. Those that want to concentrate only on those few sermons, not even given by Obama, well IMHO they would never have voted for Obama in the 1st place.

Obama will beat McDud. Hillary will lose to McDud and ensure 4 more years of hell for the world.

[villager]

17. so the DU response to this "news" -- so many months out, and before

the full impact of Depression II is known -- is to "blame the Other Democratic CAndidate?," rather than figuring out strategies to go after McCain?

Way to go.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

19. let me guess: your headline?

it doesn't quite fit the Rasmussen report.

[ORDem]

23. Simply put, it's a long way to the GE, and McCain has not been put

under the microscope that Obama and Clinton have been these past few months. He had a walk in the park to his presumptive-nominee status compared to the Dem side of the race. When voters get to really know McCain and see him up in debates against the Dem nominee, his numbers will plummet.

:dem:

[nickn777]

26. Let's hope so but....

there is very little that people don't know about McCain. Similarly, there is very little people don't know about Hillary Clinton.

This is why I believe Clinton is the "best" chance of beating McCain. What else is waiting to come out on BO? I can almost guarantee that there are scores and scores of reporters looking for video of Obama in those pews, listening to one of Wright's sermons....can we afford this ticking time bomb as our nominee? Look, I prefer Gore, or even Edwards, but those choices aren't available, so it's looking pretty bleak right now, the way I see it.

[Kaylee]

24. Welcome President McCain....us DEMS are a stupid bunch.

:banghead:

[npincus]

25. "plummets"? Hardly. Wait until the shit storm dies down.

[oasis]

28. Wright rantings:"short term impact". And that's just because it's only been 3 days.

:wow:

[blogslut]

29. Novak writes for Rasmussen?

I never knew that. No wonder peeps say Rasmussen leans to the right:

Obama continues to enjoy overwhelming support from African-American voters while Clinton leads by seventeen points among White voters. Robert Novak takes a look at the Democrats’ Racial Divide and Geraldine Ferraro’s puzzling role in highlighting the divide. A recent Rasmussen Reports poll found that just 37% hold a favorable opinion of Ferraro and that most disagree with her recent comments.

[Drunken Irishman]

33. LOL, didn't his ratings plummet two days ago?

You guys crack me up. Two days ago Obama was in a free fall, plunging 4 points in the Rasmussen poll and then he rebounded. Today he doesn't lose ANY of his support, while Clinton sees an uptick and he's plummeting again?

I know it's Saint Patrick's Day and all, but -- and take this from a Druken Irishman -- it's way too early to be slamming down Irish Carbombs.

[2rth2pwr]

34. If Obama would just pull out, we could focus on Hillary

and this negativity would end.

[dionysus]

36. phhhhhffffft *choke*

are you baked?

[2rth2pwr]

38. you disagree? nt

[GarbagemanLB]

42. I'd say the person in 2nd place, who has no shot at 1st, should drop out.

[texas_indy]

45. Kind of sad that you have to say something that should be apparent to anyone, isn't it? (nt)

[2rth2pwr]

52. After Pastorgate, Hillary will be the frontrunner. nt

[dionysus]

44. asking the FRONTRUNNER to drop out is the stupidestthing i have ever heard...

[2rth2pwr]

53. After Pastorgate, Hillary will be the frontrunner. nt

[Arugula Latte]

56. How do you figure? Does she get Magical Delegate Points awarded or something?

Really, I wonder where this fantasy thinking comes from.

[2rth2pwr]

59. Magical Superdelegates.

magically delicious

[dionysus]

60. pastorgate... is already over...

:rofl:

[Traction311]

64. What happens if they both drop out?

Then at the convention they find someone else to nominate, right? I'm voting for a Democrat in November no matter what, but I honestly believe a John Edwards/Wesley Clark ticket would be better to take on McLame. I'm not gonna lie, I'm very worried at this point of a puke victory. :(

[moobu2]

47. “GOD DAMN AMERICA”

you cant be associated with people who say shit like that and be president of the US. And I thought he was genius lol.

[goldcanyonaz]

54. Some don't view National Security as important, those who do will not like GD America.

And, they will vote against a candidate who has someone who does in their corner.

It's a different America post 9/11.

[quiet.american]

50. Yet McCain's endorsement from John "Armageddon/Christian Zionist" Hagee is okey-doke with folks, eh?

Unbelievable.

[nickn777]

57. Far easier for McCain to distance himself from Hagee...

wasn't a lifelong relationship, mentorship...Hagee didn't marry McCain, baptise his kids, "bring him to Jesus", inspire him to write his first book, even giving him the title, etc....

The Hagee/McCain comparison is a losing counterargument to Obama/Wright.....Wright will never go away for Obama and will kill his chances in the GE. Clinton is the "best" chance to win at this point. Really, Gore is probably the best chance, but that ain't happening. If you really don't want McCain, or 50 more years in Iraq, I think it would be best to support Clinton, since everything about her is already on the table...there is nothing new. What else is waiting on Obama? Can we really take that chance?

[quiet.american]

71. I disagree. McCain was glad enough to take the endorsement of this "influential" nutcase.

No one thinks Wright is going to influence Obama to "push the red button." Hagee advocates the annihilation of Iran for the sake of Israel, and "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" McCain is happy to take his endorsement? If Obama is half as smart as I think he is, once Hillary is out of the way and he can concentrate on McCain, he'll be able to put the spotlight on this insanity to the detriment of McCain.

[cbayer]

55. The most important line in this report is

"McCain currently leads Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton by an identical 48% to 42% margin."

That's the worst I have seen to date. I once again hope for unified ticket.

And the bickering here is getting really, really boring.

[txaslftist]

58. Mission Accomplished, HRC.

[Name removed]

61. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Beacool]

68. Great news!!!

Come on Hillary, there's plenty of us behind you!!!!

Hillary keeps getting the support of the Democratic base:

Among Democrats, Clinton leads 48% to 42%, but Obama has a substantial lead among unaffiliated voters likely to participate in a Democratic Primary.

[Life Long Dem]

70. Exactly one week ago on the 10th Obama and Hillary were at 46 - 44

The same as today. Go make up some more false titles now.

[QC]

72. LIES!!! LIES!!!