What % chance do you honestly give either to win the nomination at this point?

[loveangelc]

Just a random question. with the delegate math, popular vote possibilities, and the (continuing?) jeremiah wright scandal, what chance do you give both candidates of winning the nomination?

[thevoiceofreason]

1. First off, there is no Wright scandal.

There is a scandal about Hillary's ongoing secrecy and refusal to reveal records.

Having gotten that off my chest, I put it at 90% Obama, 5% Hillary, 5% other.

[loveangelc]

8. um, there is a Wright scandal. It was all over the morning news shows, theyre still talking about

this on CNN and infact will be looking at the most offensive sermons or something at 9 on CNN.

Will this be a scandal tomorrow? IDK but lets be hoenst, its an issue.

[thevoiceofreason]

23. So that's why he polled better yesterday?

News dump cycle timing strategy worked perfectly. Also, information went out right when Obama was at his best (50%). He was able to withstand the hit. Now, having only winged Barack, he is stronger and on message.

What percentages do you think apply? Or do you only ASK the probing questions?

[loveangelc]

41. I dunno if it worked out perfectly or not. It's still a major deal and may continue to be tomorrow.

why would cnn be advertising for it and what the top ten most offensive things he's said, if it werent a big deal? answer that question.

He polled one point better than the day before, do we really know if that is statistically significant? Unless something else happens thats big idont know how this won't be an issue, at least for a little while.

[thevoiceofreason]

42. Because CNN is always about 24-48 hours behind the times.

And they appeal to the small-minded set -- the set that still think this is an issue.

[loveangelc]

45. they cover things that are of interest to their viewers.

It is silly to say this is not interesting to many people just based on the number of views on youtube of this pastor and the videos online now. Lets see how it plays tomorrow. If theyre not still making a big deal about this at the end of the week then maybe its all over.

[dailykoff]

46. CNN is a bullshit propaganda organ.

I guess you can get used to anything, but it's always been total crap.

[DemVet]

57. Actually, he's down 5 points in three days, nationally.

Go to realclearpolitics.com for links to most of the national polls.

[dailykoff]

2. 99.99% chance it goes to Obama.

Barring something really horrific.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

14. I'm thinking maybe even higher.

[dailykoff]

19. I hope so..

but the reality is that troublesome politicians have to be careful.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. Obama 80-85% chance

[jlake]

4. 60/40 for Obama.

[demokatgurrl]

56. I agree with that . n/t

[11 Bravo]

65. That sounds about right.

[dkf]

5. 99% Obama

I think he's got it.

[leftrightwingnut]

6. Well, Obama has the edge. He will be forced to give Clinton the VP slot.

Distasteful as that may be to Obama supporters. That's just what my gut tells me right now...

[Andy823]

20. What makes you think

That he will be forced to give her the VP slot?

I really don't think she wants it, and I really don't think Obama wants her. I think it would be bad if he did win the nomination and had her as VP after all she has said about him not being ready, not having the experience, etc. I also think it would help McCain out more than it would Obama. To many repugs just don't want another Clinton in the whitehouse no matter what spot she would hold, they will come out in record breaking numbers to prevent it.

[leftrightwingnut]

38. I agree neither wants it. But I think that they will be encouraged to cut a deal.

"Forced" is probably too strong a word. "Strongly encouraged" for "the good of the party."

It's a lot easier to imagine if you are on the outside instead of in one partisan camp or another.

If you manage to force it past the gag reflex, it sort of makes sense. How else do you accommodate the Clinton supporters? Clinton did get nearly half the delegates.

Ideally, Obama should pick someone else. These are not ideal circumstances.

[izzybeans]

7. Obama 75% Clinton 49%.

Wild guess, but that's what you asked for.

[adoraz]

9. you do realize that doesn't make any sense right? :p

anyways my guess is 99% Obama.

[izzybeans]

16. I had 99% originally

but "wildly" second guessed myself. :)

[adoraz]

26. no what I mean is

having 75% for one and 49% for another doesn't make any sense. it would either need to be 75% and 25% or 51% and 49%. :)

edit: unless you did that purposely to make it wild then nvm.

[izzybeans]

27. No I misread the OP. I was talking in the general.

I'd say 80/20 obama for the nomination.

On edit: thanks for straightening me out, I sometimes read the OP too fast if I'm multitasking.

[adoraz]

30. oh ok I see

for the GE I say Obama 60% McCain 40%.

[izzybeans]

31. A realistic guess from me would be low 50s for Obama.

I don't think Clinton could get higher than high 40s.

[rateyes]

10. That is a wild guess...

75%+49% = 124%

[izzybeans]

18. We are talking about chances of winning not percentages of the vote.

If the final goal was to obtain a constant number I could substitute percentages of the vote for degree of chance.

And I realize now that I am talking about the general when clearly we are talking about the OP.

That percentage looks like 80/20 Obama.

[rateyes]

32. Cool. Gotcha. nt

[anigbrowl]

17. Um that's impossible - adds up 124% chance

With only 2 contestants, the total probabilities should add to 100. 75/25, or 51/49. but 75/49 just means you're on crack.

[izzybeans]

21. see above-and I guess I misread the op because I'm thinking of the general.

So I'm giving Clinton roughly a 50/50 chance and Obama a much greater one.

[anigbrowl]

36. Ah, I see what you mean now /nt

[PseudoIntellect]

11. Clinton 20% chance

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

12. Chance of both candidates winning the nomination: 0%

Sorry for the snark

[depakid]

13. Obama 70% Clinton 20% Neither of the two 10%

A lot can happen in 4+ months.

[The River]

15. There's A 99% Chance

Hill-Bill will try to steal the nomination via Super D's,
a 30% chance she will and a zero% chance it will do her any good if she does.
That gives Obama a 70-30 shot.

[ihelpu2see]

40. If she (Hill-Bill that is) pulls it off, I, an elected dem. in my town, I leave the party

and go to work for Nadar. Because, what I had thought back in 2000 would have been proven to be true. That neither party is interested in the liberal, progressive masses (most of the populous) they are interested in power and what power they can grab from attaining more and more....

[The River]

43. I Hear You

I took a 30 year hiatus from "organized" politics
after the McGovern disaster.

[ihelpu2see]

47. I was, I think, 2 years old when that happened, I helped Ned Lamont beat Sen. Joe LIEberman in

the Primary, only to see Joe woo the CT republicans to vote him in for 6 more years. I worked hard to help a local Probate Judge win as a D in a republican town and I feel that I helped Obama win in my town and in CT. So, for a younger liberal dem. it would be very depressing to see Sen. Clinton think only of herself and not the huge numbers of new young voters who are finally engaged.....

[nsd]

22. Obama 99%.

There are only 9 contests left (11 if MI and FL go again). Too few for Clinton to overcome Obama's lead. There's no chance the superdelegates are going to give it to her anyway. If Obama is ahead on points (by even a little bit), that's all that will matter.

[ZombieHorde]

24. 50% - win or loose.

[TwilightGardener]

25. Obama, 80%. And I'm a pessimist. But Pelosi has been signaling

support for his position, and that may ultimately sway most of the SD's--she is the most powerful female Democrat in Congress. Now, will the Wright thing hurt him? Maybe, but I have a hunch that the Dem party does not want him to go down over such a stupid reason, because that new guilt-by-association standard will not serve Hillary if she's the nominee either. I'm pretty sure the GOP has got stuff on her and Bill, association-wise, that's worse than an angry black preacher.

[jillan]

28. 60 - 40 Obama

[susankh4]

29. Neither will win

we'll have a white guy in the White House in 2008.

Or: less than 25% for either of them at this point.

[PseudoIntellect]

44. nomation =/= presidency.

I seriously doubt a white guy will win the nomination...LOL...

[susankh4]

55. He already has

his name is John McCain.

[Tribetime]

33. if fox loses power

and they're off the air the final month I'd say 100% if not 95% if both on same ticket or 65% if either one individually

[Exilednight]

34. 90% in favor of Obama.

[polichick]

35. 100% chance - Obama

[depakid]

53. I know some bookies who would love to meet you...

they love certainty.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. Obama 3-1 Favorite In The Primaries

McCain 3-2 favorite in the General aganst Obama or Clinton...

How did the Dems ever get in this mess?

Even if the war is a push this might be the first time in electoral history that a party held the White House in the midst of a recession...

Obama and Clinton remind me of two children fighting over a toy...They end up breaking it...

I'd put the odds at 30-1 but I think the only thing that could rescue the Dems is a deadlocked convention that turns to Al Gore...

[XemaSab]

39. 75-25 Obama

and it's only that high for Hillary because I don't trust her at all. :(

[mikekohr]

48. 90% Obama, 10% Clinton

In the general election Obama 54%, McCain 46%. If Clinton wins our nomination McCain 51%, Clinton 49%.

mike kohr

[BenDavid]

49. HRC will receive 370 or more electoral votes.....

[Johnny__Motown]

51. Nomination.... there are no electoral votes,

also this proves you are delusional

Hillary breaking 280 electoral votes in the GE is extremely unlikely



370 is not possible

[mudesi]

50. 100% Obama

There are no chances here. It's over.

[depakid]

54. Those bookies would love to meet you, too.

[Johnny__Motown]

52. 99% Obama 1% Other

[my3boyz]

58. Obama is going to win the nomination. I'm not sure if Hillary and the other repugs

have damaged him too much to win the general election. Yes,I include Hillary as a repug. Once she sides with a repug over a democrat she is no better than them. I will just be pleased to see Hillary NOT win the democratic nomination because I knows how much she wants it. I want democrats to show her that kneecapping your opponent on character issues is no longer acceptable. To have a debate on the issues is fine but trying to destroy their character (I take him at his word that he is not a Muslim, Jesse Jackson won S.C. too,etc..etc). So I would like the Clintons to learn a lesson. In addition, I think Hillary has a worse chance at winning the general election.

[formernaderite]

59. its 50-50 now

but neither candidate is strong at this point...the fact that Mcain is running even with them, is upsetting. Both their trains have slowed... oh well, GO democrats!

[cali]

62. no way. Obama has a far greater probability of winning the nomination

how far greater? Hard to say but definitely over 60%. Hill has no more than 40%- and that's being generous.

[formernaderite]

63. maybe if not for the fall out

and super delegates. I don't trust Hillary to back off.

[DeschutesRiver]

60. no percentage applies

Unless Clinton pulls out what is likely a mathematical impossibility, Obama has already accumulated enough elected delegates to become the nominee. So 99% Obama, 1% just in case for Clinton.

The superdelegates are not going to tear the Democratic Party into shreds as the Clinton team hopes and throw their votes to her while Obama has the most elected delegates. And sure, if I was a SD I would let Clinton continue to think she has a shot with SDs, because I'd like not to have my arm clean twisted off while being pressure by them to vote for them instead.

[moobu2]

61. 80% chance the primary goes to Barack and 100% chance we loose the GE

Thanks Borack

[Redbear]

64. Obama 70/30

I think there are still several Democratic Party leaders who aren't sure about Obama.

[invictus]

66. 100% OBAMA n/t

[Texas Hill Country]

67. i give BO about 85-90% for nomination. I give BO 30% in GE unfortunately. Hope the speech is good.

[IsItJustMe]

68. Your OP sounds like a push poll when you say "scandlal".

[Proud Liberal Dem]

69. Mathmatically, from what I've heard, Obama has the majority of delegates

In terms of securing the nomination, what I've also been hearing is that, technically, neither candidate will be able to win enough delegates to put them over the top once all of the primaries are completed (with or without Michigan and Florida), so it appears that the party is probably going to have to broker some kind of arrangement that recognizes that Obama has won (and probably will continue to win) the majority of the delegates but also takes into account that Hilary has made a very strong showing in the primaries, particularly in the larger states, and has a significant constituency within the party. At this point, I am concerned that any decision (including the use of "super delegates" to tip the scales one way or another) that is made that doesn't include some kind of Obama/Hilary pairing is likely to be divisive for the party and could suppress voter turnout. As for the conflict between Obama and Hilary, I think that they would be able to smooth over their differences and work together. They HAVE, of course, been competing against each other and most vice presidential candidates, after all, seem to emerge from the initial field of presidential candidates. What do people expect from a primary, particularly in a race as contested as this one has been? Also, with Hilary on the ticket, Obama will be able to take advantage of Hilary's strengths on some of the issues that he may be somewhat weaker on and vice versa not to mention the possibility that the prospect of Hilary as a VP nominee might not drive as many Republicans to polls as she would if she were the Presidential nominee. That's just my $0.02.

[intaglio]

70. Given that however unlikely someone might try bribery

89% Obama, 10% Clinton, 1% other