Why Wright doesn't matter: It's the economy stupid

[NMMatt]

All this freaking out over Wright is a bit over blown. The fact is that it will not matter in November.

Of course it isn't helpful to the Obama campaign. That is true. The right wingers are all over this and are going to try to pin Wright's views on Obama. It's a useful distraction for them, however, it ultimately won't matter. For two reasons.

First of all, in order for it to matter, it has to stick. There is nothing in the way Obama talks that would give anyone the slightest impression that he is some kind of anti-American radical. Quite the contrary. So your average voter will see an add with an angry radical pastor and some dark imagery and some serious sounding narrator tying him to Obama. But that is completely contrary to what the same voter will see when they hear Obama give speeches and see Obama in debates. Voters are impressionistic, true, but for these attack adds to work they have to be congruent with the actual person being attacked (think Willie Horton add + Dukakis in a tank = unserious bleeding heart liberal). As with John Kerry and the swift boats, the reason that they actually worked is because they had footage of a young Kerry condemning Vietnam in Senate testamony. Although Kerry was a war hero, a low information voter would have had their doubts. Also, the war was the issue of the campaign, and at that point, it was still 50-50 concerning support for it. I just don't see this Wright issue being all that effective against Obama, becuase what Wright is saying is almost completely diametrically opposed with the way Obama comes across.

Secondly, the Republicans are going to have a SERIOUS problem with the economy come November. Maybe in normal times swing voters would vote for the war hero and this would become a big enough issue to matter. The thing is that vs. McCain (who appears ignorant and uncaring concerning the average voter's economic concerns), Obama will contrast quite nicely with his anti-establishment populist message. That is what will resonate with the voters and how they will view Obama. The only people that will ultimately care about this Wright thing, are the voters who weren't going to vote for Obama anyway.

[C_U_L8R]

1. Funny, the Clintonarians seem to think its the stupid attack.

They're running out of time, they're running out of states,
they're running out of money, they're running out delegates,
and they ran out of a positive message a long time ago.
They really need to give it a stupid rest, they're doing no one
any good... especially themselves.

[tandem5]

2. This isn't a primary election thing...

Obama's part of the general election cycle now and this is just the first salvo in a long and ugly line of attacks.

[C_U_L8R]

3. Tell that to the Clintons... they just don't know friend from foe

[Vinca]

4. You're correct - it is the economy, stupid. I heard Ben Stein, of all people,

pretty much blaming the current mess on Bush and disagreeing with making the tax cuts permanent. (Hell is reportedly also freezing over.)