In every FL, MI scenario, Obama maintains pledge delegate lead

[ProSense]

Florida and Michigan: By the numbers

There are all sorts of options concerning Florida and Michigan, so we do what we do best - we run all the numbers:

The options are:

• Do not seat Florida or Michigan
  
• Seat them based on the elections that have taken place. Don't assume Obama gets the 55 Michigan uncommitted delegates.
  
• Seat them based on the elections that have taken place. Give Obama the 55 Michigan uncommitted delegates.
  
• Split the Florida and Michigan pledged delegations 50/50. Superdelegates are free to vote as they wish.
  
• Split Michigan 50/50 including supers. Give Florida pledged delegates 1/2 vote, but based on January election. 1/2 vote for superdelegates also. This is supposedly under significant discussion.

Florida and Michigan hold new elections.

We are not endorsing any of these options. We're just providing information so our readers can judge how each option will affect the race.

Let us know what you think of these tables.

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Summary of tables show Obama's pledge delegate lead in every scenario:

Total Delegates: 4048 ** W/o FL & MI - Current Status ** Needed: 2024.5
Pledged Delegates(AP) Obama 1390, Clinton 1248
Superdelegates (DCW) Obama 207, Clinton 244

Total Delegates: 4415 ** With FL & MI included - Results upheld** Needed: 2208
Pledged Delegates(AP & GP) Obama 1457, Clinton 1426
Superdelegates (DCW) Obama 212, Clinton 259

Total Delegates:4415 ** With FL & MI (Obama gets MI 55) ** Needed: 2208
Pledged Delegates(AP & GP) Obama 1512, Clinton 1426
Superdelegates (DCW) Obama 212, Clinton 259

Total Delegates: 4415 ** With MI & FL 50/50 ** Needed: 2208
Pledged Delegates(AP) Obama 1540, Clinton 1398
Superdelegates (DCW) Obama 212, Clinton 259

Total Delegates: 4309.5 ** MI 50/50 FL 1/2 Vote ** Needed: 2155
Pledged Delegates(AP) Obam 1390, Clinton 1248
Superdelegates (DCW) Obama 207, Clinton 244

Total Delegates: 4415 ** FL & MI will Re-Vote ** Needed: 2208
Pledged Delegates(AP) Obama 1390, Clinton 1248
Superdelegates (DCW) Obama 212, Clinton 259

Obama Cuts Into Clinton's Delegate Lead Among Elected Officials

Julianna Goldman and Catherine Dodge
Fri Mar 14, 12:01 AM ET

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama has pulled almost even with Hillary Clinton in endorsements from top elected officials and has cut into her lead among the other superdelegates she's relying on to win the Democratic presidential nomination.

Among the 313 of 796 superdelegates who are members of Congress or governors, Clinton has commitments from 103 and Obama is backed by 96, according to lists supplied by the campaigns. Fifty-three of Obama's endorsements have come since he won the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, compared with 12 who have aligned with Clinton since then.

``That's not glacial, that is a remarkable momentum,'' Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri, a superdelegate and Obama supporter, said in an interview. ``I don't think there is anything that will slow that down.''

<...>

In the overall race for superdelegates -- elected and party officials who automatically receive votes at the Democratic National Convention that will choose the nominee -- Clinton leads Obama in commitments by 249 to 212, according to an Associated Press tally.

The trend, though, is running against the New York senator. Since March 5, the day after she won primaries in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Obama took Vermont, the Illinois senator has won backing from nine superdelegates and Clinton one, according to the campaigns and interviews.

<...>

Even if Clinton scores a net gain of 10 delegates in Pennsylvania, Obama can make that up with wins in smaller states such as North Carolina and South Dakota, which vote later.

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Another for Obama:

Obama Campaign Statement on Wisconsin Superdelegate EndorsementFrom the Obama campaign:

Wisconsin Superdelegate Endorses Barack Obama for President

Melissa Schroeder Cites Obama’s Electability

Chicago, IL – Today Wisconsin superdelegate Melissa Schroeder endorsed Barack Obama for president, citing his unique ability to stand up to the special interests and unite all Americans to bring about real, meaningful change.

Melissa Schroeder said: “After much consideration, I have decided to endorse Senator Barack Obama. My decision came down to electability and who I felt would do a better job of unifying this country for a common purpose. Obama’s message of hope and change has touched millions of voters in a way that I haven’t seen since the late 1960’s. People from every walk of life, young and the not so young, Democrats, Independents and some Republicans, are all rallying around a belief that change can happen if we want it bad enough. With Obama as our nominee, I am confident that this November we will increase our majority in the House and Senate and elect a Democrat to the White House.”

Melissa Schroeder is Wisconsin’s 7th District Democratic Party Secretary.

Edited to add:

Popular Vote Total -
Obama 13,280,770 49.5%
Clinton 12,577,044 46.9%
Obama +703,726 +2.6%

Popular Vote (w/FL) -
Obama 13,856,984 48.5%
Clinton13,448,030 47.1%
Obama +408,954 +1.4%

Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)* -
Obama 13,856,984 47.5%
Clinton13,776,339 47.3%
Obama +80,645 +0.2%

link

[Frances]

1. Do any of these scenarios show Obama with enough

delegates to win the nomination?

I think the reason the people want both Obama and Hillary on the ticket is that it's not likely either will have enough delegates on his/her own to clinch the nomination outright.

[ProSense]

3. Note: Hillary can't win! n/t

[Scurrilous]

2. Thanks!

K & R :thumbsup:

[ProSense]

4. Not good news for Hillary! n/t

[papau]

5. very true - I do not know why Obama fears the redo

[peace13]

6. I don't think he fears it.

If you break one election rule where does it stop. If we are going to change the rules let's change the number of delegates needed for the nomination. Let's do that one. Winner takes all. Bet Hillary would never agree to that even though it would be the most fair.

[ProSense]

7. Link? n/t

[papau]

8. Google Obama Michigan primary fairness do over and get a thousand hits like this one

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/03/michigan_firehouse_primary_nix.html

[ProSense]

11. Opposing Hillary's ultimatum is not opposing a revote. Here:

Friday, March 14, 2008
Decision 2008

Dems zero in on June 3 primary

Mark Hornbeck and Deb Price / The Detroit News

Key Michigan Democrats were negotiating feverishly toward breaking the impasse with the national Democratic Party over the state's 156 national convention delegates.

The most promising compromise on the table was a June 3 do-over primary.

A blue-ribbon group of four top Michigan Democrats formed to seek a resolution met in Washington on Thursday with top officials in Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign and by conference call, separately, with Barack Obama's camp. They are looking for a compromise acceptable to the state party, the Democratic National Committee and both presidential campaigns.

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Obama's Michigan Co-Chair Suggests Agreement On Redo Of Primary Is Likely

[ClayZ]

9. Thanks! K and R

[jobycom]

10. Good. So maybe Obama supporters will quit trying to squash the vote, then?

[ProSense]

19. The goal is to keep Hillary from cheating. n/t

[Independent-Voter]

12. He should just let Veruca take the votes as it, then rub her nose in it when he beats her anyway

[tritsofme]

13. 2025 or bust.

nt

[ProSense]

14. "Seventeen Iowa officials announced their support for presidential candidate Barack Obama..."

Obama gets backing before Ia. convention

By MIKE GLOVER, Associated Press Writer

DES MOINES, Iowa - Seventeen Iowa officials announced their support for presidential candidate Barack Obama just days before Iowa Democrats gather for the next phase of choosing delegates to the national convention.

All the supporters, including Lt. Gov. Patty Judge and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, were won over since Obama claimed first place in Iowa's leadoff precinct caucuses.

"He's drawing a new generation to our party," Judge, who hadn't previously backed a candidate, said Thursday. "The way he did that was by expanding the base of our party."

The endorsements by Judge and 16 legislators came two days before Democrats across the state will gather in each of Iowa's 99 counties for conventions made up of delegates elected at the Jan. 3 caucuses.

<...>

With only Obama and Clinton remaining, the campaigns now are seeking activists who backed other candidates, particularly Edwards. About one-third of the 17 new Obama supporters formerly supported Edwards.

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[ProSense]

15. Source: Obama Tells Donors That Losing Pennsylvania By Less Than 10 Points Will Be "Victory"

Source: Obama Tells Donors That Losing Pennsylvania By Less Than 10 Points Will Be "Victory"

By Greg Sargent - March 14, 2008, 3:40PM

On a call with some of his major California donors yesterday, Barack Obama acknowledged that Pennsylvania will be a steep uphill battle, and said that his aim is to get within 10 points of Hillary there, something that he said would be a "victory" for him, according to a donor on the call.

"He said that Pennsylvania is tough for them and that the demographics really are not the best for them," the donor tells me, adding that Obama was speaking to the group of 40-odd contributors via conference call.

"He said his goal is to finish within 10 points, and that that would be a victory for them. He said he'll be making a big effort there, but that she should win it and that the goal is to finish within 10."

Asked for comment on the conversation, Obama spokesperson Bill Burton didn't deny that it had taken place, saying: "She has a big lead, she won Ohio by 10 points and she is the favorite -- but we will fight as hard as we can for votes and delegates."

Obama's remarks are significant, because defining a Pennsylvania victory (and defeat) in such specific terms could make it tougher for the campaign to frame the actual results when they happen should he lose by more than 10 points. If he comes in under 10, however, setting expectations in advance this way could help.

[ProSense]

16. More on the 17 Iowa officials

Obama's Iowa backers make push for county conventions

Still not sure how many, if any, are superdelegates.

[Infinite Hope]

17. Redoes will actually help him over the current results.

Granted, Hillary will gain slightly on delegates (likely) once these states are counted, but not much. And by having redo-contests in those two states, Obama can drastically reduce her "commanding" false leads (with the slight potential of winning one or both) and negate her argument resting upon large current leads in those two states.

[ProSense]

18. The superdelegates will move! n/t

[phrigndumass]

20. k+r

good stats work

:thumbsup:

[ProSense]

21. Winning in November: Obama Still Stronger Against McCain

Winning in November: Obama Still Stronger Against McCain

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

22. but he's muslim, not black enough, stole a penny from the need a penny take a penny cup...

but but but.......