THE MATH Mini Update - Super Tasty Superdelegate Statistics

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Mini Update - Super Tasty Superdelegate Statistics

Under Status Quo (Florida and Michigan not seated):

Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 50/50:
Hillary Clinton – 1,532.0 Pledged, 249 Super, 244 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,695.0 Pledged, 212 Super, 118 more superdelegates needed

There are only 334 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 244 of 334 – 72.8% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 118 of 334 – 35.3% of remaining superdelegates needed

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Or, with new elections in Florida and Michigan:

Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 50/50:
Hillary Clinton – 1,688.5 Pledged, 262 Super, 258 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,851.5 Pledged, 216 Super, 141 more superdelegates needed

There are only 351 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 258 of 351 – 73.4% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 141 of 351 – 40.0% of remaining superdelegates needed

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Or, with Florida and Michigan seated as is, from January results:

Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 50/50:
Hillary Clinton – 1,711.0 Pledged, 262 Super, 235 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,762.0 Pledged, 216 Super, 230 more superdelegates needed

There are only 351 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 235 of 351 – 67.0% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 230 of 351 – 65.5% of remaining superdelegates needed

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To summarize it a different way:

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
Status Quo – Clinton needs 244 of 334, or 72.8%
New elections FL/MI – Clinton needs 258 of 351, or 73.4%
FL/MI seated as is – Clinton needs 235 of 351, or 67.0%

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
Status Quo – Obama needs 118 of 334, or 35.3%
New elections FL/MI – Obama needs 141 of 351, or 40.0%
FL/MI seated as is – Obama needs 230 of 351, or 65.5%

More detailed info at link:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5055743

Read my journal for daily details over the past week:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass

[ButterflyBlood]

1. Thanks for the cold hard math

Also take into account that 73 of the remaining superdelegates have not yet been chosen, and will be elected by the state Democratic committee or at the state convention. Assuming every state appoints these the way the state voted, Obama will have a 12 delegate lead among them. Also any deviations will likely benefit Obama due to his domination of caucuses which control the state convention, his supporters will control almost every state convention elected by a caucus which will elect the superdelegates.

[phrigndumass]

2. That's very interesting

So on the morning of convention day, Senator Obama will just have to wake up and get out of bed to gain 12 more superdelegates.

:thumbsup:

[Scurrilous]

3. Thanks.

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

4. YW ...

Thanks for the bump 'n' rec!

[phrigndumass]

5. bump

[phrigndumass]

6. bump

[phrigndumass]

8. bump

[quantass]

7. k&r