The 'Decider'--the DNC Credentials Committee will be controlled by candidate with most delegates

[flpoljunkie]

(This is obviously why Senator Bill Nelson is working so hard to have either the January 29th primary results stand or have the party conduct a "mail-in" primary.)

When both states' legislators moved their contests to January 15, in Michigan, and January 29, in Florida, they thought they knew exactly what they were doing: While the DNC might strip them of delegates, the eventual nominee would instruct credentials committee members to allow the two states' slates to sit n the convention floor. But that plan did not factor in the possibility of a contested convention.

Now, based on delegate allocation, it looks almost certain that votes to seat the delegations in their current iterations - both overwhelmingly favoring Hillary Clinton - will not exist. Examining the 186 members of the DNC's Credentials Committee, which would decide any contested delegations, the deck is heavily stacked against both states.

Of the twenty eight members DNC chair Howard Dean appointed, five have already voted to strip the states' delegates. Committee chairs Alexis Herman and Jim Roosevelt, along with members Ralph Dawson, Tina Flournoy and Janice Griffin, all served on the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee, which decided the punishments for non-compliant states. The remaining twenty three members will likely follow suit and vote to uphold the rules.

Based on results so far, it appears that Barack Obama's team will control at least 68 seats on the credentials committee, after an estimate that is, if anything, generous to Clinton. Clinton's wins have netted her 55 seats, while states that have yet to hold contests -- Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennyslvania, South Dakota, West Virginia and Puerto Rico - have yet to allocate their combined 22 seats. With Dean's selections voting to uphold the rules and Obama's delegates voting in their candidate's interest, 96 delegates would vote to keep Michigan and Florida out.

While the committee is slated to have 186 members casting 183 votes (delegates from the territories are given a quarter of a vote, though all four voted for Obama, suggesting they will cast their combined one committee vote for him), Florida's and Michigan's combined 14 delegates are still allowed at the convention, but they cannot vote on matters involving their own states.

Alternate link: http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20080310/cm_rcp/michigan_florida_options_shrin

[madfloridian]

1. Fix your link...

:hi:

[flpoljunkie]

2. It works for me, but I edited post to add the entire link. Thanks.

[madfloridian]

3. That longer one works for me. Thanks.

That is a very comprehensive article.

[cali]

4. yep. it looks like Hillary is plumb out of luck

That said the credentials committee still has to come up with an acceptable solution that doesn't ignore MI or FL.

[flpoljunkie]

6. FL and MI put themselves in this situation, yet expect the DNC to bail them out

A new primary would have to be paid for with soft money from Democratic party fat cats--no doubt supporters of Hillary Clinton.

All we need to understand here is that the person who is driving this is Bill Nelson, Hillary Clinton endorser. He is not thinking about the voters of Florida. He is thinking about shoring up Hillary Clinton's increasingly slim chance to be the Democratic nominee.

It is time for Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race. Can you imagine if the shoe were on the other foot? The Democratic party elite would be demanding Barack Obama drop out. Does anyone doubt it?

But, hey, "it's her turn," and if she has to destroy the Democratic party, in her increasingly unlikely quest to be the nominee, so be it!

[madfloridian]

7. Hillary superdelegates have offered the money...Corzine and Rendell.

If I were in their states I would be sort of upset over their raising millions for another state.

[flpoljunkie]

8. Great point, madfl!

[psychopomp]

5. The delving into obscure rules of party politics will turn off American voters

who were excited about a change for the better following our long nightmare of bush. We are an impatient people and will rapidly get annoyed and lose interest in what Democratic party politicians might have to say.