A closer look at the (R) crossover vote in Mississippi

[kristopher]

His total vote was 255,809
Her total vote was 155,686
overall total was 411,495

12% of the total (49,379) was (R)epublican crossover
Split 25% (15,344) Obama and 75% (34,034) Clinton

34,034 is 24% of Clinton's total vote of 155,686

15,345 is 6% of Obama's total vote of 255,809

Deducting these numbers we have

Total w/o Republicans

Obama 240,809 (67%)

Clinton 118,321 (32.9)

Overall total 359,230



I suspect that if we went further we'd find that the big supposed losses for Obama among whites is a product of this crossover republican vote.

Added on edit:
There are two crossover groups voting for two different reasons.

There are the disaffected (R) that have been crossing over since the beginning.
There are also the gremlins crossing over at the behest of Limbaugh in order to vote for hillary.
I don't think the second group is voted for Barack, but it's possible.
Discounting that possibility for the moment, the logic is that the 25% that voted for Obama in MS (nowhere else did limbaugh have as much lead time to urge the crossover) are real crossovers because we should assume that Limbaugh's listeners wouldn't have voted for Hillary.
What we don't know is the number of Hill's voters that were Limbaugh inspired and the number that were genuine crossover.

So I chose to just remove the tallies from both columns.


I haven't seen the totals but it would be interesting to see a breakdown by primary with the closed primaries used as controls.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225989/

[usregimechange]

1. A good lot of it was as she won all the Republican strongholds

[ProgressiveEconomist]

4. YES! And since pledged delegates are awarded by proportional vote WITHIN Congressional

District, it does not take many Republican crossovers to thoroughly outweigh Democratic voters and give Hillary unwarranted pledged delegates within predominantly Republican CDs. See http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/MS-D.phtml (final table) for the Mississippi popular vote within CD.

The district with 7 delegates total is overwhelmingly African-American, and gets extra delegates because of loyalty to the Democratic Party in past General Elections. Other districts are overwhelmingly Republican and thus get only 5 delegates total.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

5. Self-delete--Dupe

[Barack_America]

2. We had a bit of a discussion about this yesterday.

Some interesting ideas were brought up there too.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5046005&mesg_id=5046005

Particularly Frenchie's post:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5046005&mesg_id=5047344

[FunkyLeprechaun]

6. And a DailyKos analysis from my post yesterday

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5039415

It's very interesting.

[phrigndumass]

3. interesting!

rec'd

[speedoo]

7. Why would a rethug not vote for Hillary? She's one of them, after all.

A vote for McCain serves no purpose for them, so why not try to eliminate Hillary's enemy.

K&R.