YOU WANT TO TALK NUMBERS? HOW OBAMA GETS TO 2024

[thoughtcrime1984]

These numbers do not include MI/FLA. If they have a re-vote, I am of the opinion that they will come close to 50% split of delegates overall. That notwithstanding, here is how Obama can get to 2024 and clinch the nomination. Numbers based on current CNN 1611-1480 count.

PA 87-71 H wins 55-45
IN 40-32 H wins 56-44
WV 18-10 H wins 64-36
OR 28-24 H wins 54-46
SD 8-7 O wins 53-47
Gu 4-0 H wins 90-10
NC 60-55 H wins 52-48
KY 30-21 H wins 59-41
MT 8-8 near tie
PR 28-27 H wins 51-49
Supers go 194-157 for Hillary the rest of the way

Obama ends up at 2024

Honestly, I think each and every one of these results are VERY kind to Hillary, and I don't believe she is going to nearly win out. So, how besides MASSIVE SD movement to Hillary AND seating MI/FLA to their current messed-up vote does she prevent Obama from getting to the delegate number he needs to win? I just don't see it.

[Occam Bandage]

1. Yep. Even if Hillary runs the table, Obama still wins it.

[dchill]

16. Exactly - even under the most favorable scenario...

she loses. Either this fact is incomprehensible to the Hillbots, or they are ready to jump on board with whatever undemocratic theft tactic HRC comes up with. My guess is... both!

[Johnny__Motown]

18. I think the easy numbers are.. she needs 64% of remaining pledged delegates to catch up or....

54% of all remaining delegates to win.

Obama only needs 47% of all remaining delegates to win


(I think those are right, did them from memory)



She has no real chance other than lots of SD going against the leader in pledged delegates and that does not seem likely.

[dchill]

19. Easy numbers for everyone...

except for Hillary and her supporters.

[CreekDog]

2. If she splits the rest of the votes evenly

She needs to get 87% of the rest of the uncommitted superdelegates to beat Obama.

87%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Come on.

[thoughtcrime1984]

3. This makes sense? No? C'mon guys!

[The_Casual_Observer]

4. Apparently Obamoids are allowed to repeat bad news

about Hillary, not the other way around.

[rug]

5. So, you see her winning 8 of the last 10.

[SunsetDreams]

6. no...

realistically she won't, however, it dispells this notion that she can beat him fairly.

The OP was generous with her and he still comes out on top.

What's the purpose of her staying in?

[rug]

8 out of 10 is a damn good reason.

[thoughtcrime1984]

9. Read what I just typed, she WILL NOT win 8 of 10

She will get more delegates in PA, but not 17. KY and WV would be the only other states where I would think she could gain delegates. He will continue to outpace her all the way to the end.

[rug]

11. If your post turns out correct, and you wrong, there's ample reason to go on.

And it will be decided in Denver.

[Hawkowl]

14. Hello? Anyone in there?

Please, please, PLEASE say something remotely, vaguely intelligent or insightful or how about just stop posting?

[FlyingSquirrel]

31. It's called the ignore list. Start using it, the few remaining Clinton supporters in GDP

are (for the most part) delusional and not much worth wasting your time on.

[rug]

45. Good discussion. Ignore posts and call those ignored posts delusional.

Your technique is to debate what masturbation is to sex.

[rug]

44. If you measure intelligence by people agreeing with you, you'll find the world to be a stupid place

And you'll be quite confortable there.

[thoughtcrime1984]

7. Nope, just putting up Hillary friendly numbers to help prove

my point that Obama won't be stopped from reaching 2024 without massive SD help. This is not going to the convention without being decided.

[Benhurst]

8. I think the number to win is back to 2025, so he loses.

Sorry, I couldn't resist. :rofl:

[goldcanyonaz]

10. !!!!!

:rofl:

[Buzz Clik]

13. Actually, with the numbers in the OP, she's nowhere near 2025.

[Benhurst]

20. No body wins unless somebody gets 2025. Someone is going to have to

be pushed over the finish line.

[Buzz Clik]

24. Agreed. This isn't happening with Florida and Michigan off the table.

[FlyingSquirrel]

32. Huh? Of COURSE it is.

Geez you sound like the pundits at CNN.

It is impossible for one of the two NOT to get to 2,024.5 or very nearly impossible. Edwards only gets 12 delegates, and there are perhaps another 14 in Iowa of unknown status.

If you add MI and FL in, as they currently stand, the number rises to 2,208 needed to win.

(I'd suggest learning what you're talking about before posting in numbers threads.. wouldn't want to sound as uninformed as CNN anchors would ya?)

:rofl:

[Buzz Clik]

38. self delete

[mythyc]

37. oh, that's rich!

:rofl:

[mckeown1128]

12. Only thing wrong with it is that...

MT will lean obama in delegates... and Hillary will win by 18% in Pennsylvania.... but the result is the same...

[Johnny__Motown]

15. Umm... no..... I don't think any Hillary people want to talk numbers.. only about Big States

[4_Legs_Good]

17. The 1611 includes Super Delegates

Not that there's anything wrong with that, but it still hits the point that neither of them will likely get to the "magic number" without the Supers.

Personally, I'd just tell the super delegates to shut up until the final pledged delegates are in, and then they can pipe in about who they'll support. When the pledged numbers come out with neither hitting the magic number but one up by 150-250 delegates, I think the choice will be obvious, and they can break accordingly.

For the most part, IMO, the primary job of the super delegates is to fill programming time on cable news channels.

David

[sniffa]

46. Yes, and the Supers are included in the 4049 Delegates

Hence, the 2025 number.

[grantcart]

21. After Texas it stopped being about numbers and your fine post proves the point

but Ferraro reveals the personal nature of the bitterness these people feel and why they will not stop. It will go to the convention.

[Buzz Clik]

22. Where do the numbers come from for the supers? 351 supers not committed at this time?

Currently, Obama and Clinton have a total of 3091 total delegates committed to them collectively. Subtract this from the total 4048, that leaves 957 not accounted for. Subtract out the 566 pledged delegates that have not been voted upon yet, and that leaves 391. Removing all the FL and MI delegates (367), and we get 24. My understanding is that the FL and MI supers are not being counted, right? Even if we add them in, that would add only another 54.

Help me here.

[thoughtcrime1984]

23. Not sure. Every site seems to have different numbers, too.

I don't know what the defintive source is for the numbers.

[Buzz Clik]

25. The supers are this ethereal, amorphous number that seems to be concocted.

Using numbers for the current totals from CNN and Wikipedia (search Democratic Primaries), I get the following breakdown:

Excluding the results from MI and FL and assuming that their superdelegates don't count, Obama needs 414 delegates to get over the top, and Clinton needs 545.

In terms of all the delegates not yet voted upon and the uncommitted supers (minus the supers from FL and MI), Obama needs to capture 70% of these delegates to win outright. Clinton needs 92% of them.

Now, if the FL and MI delegations are eliminated from the pot, then the total delegate pool becomes becomes 3681 and the needed count to win more than half is 1841. Suddenly Obama needs only 39% to win and Clinton needs 61%. She cannot win, and Obama certainly can.

I haven't heard anyone say that the magic number changes simply because FL and MI won't be seated. So, seating these states becomes crucial if this is to be resolved prior to Denver. When we start seating these states, it suddenly becomes very, very possible for Obama to win outright: he'd need only 43% compared to Hillary's 57%.

Hillary's best chance to win outright before the convention is to a) steal delegates from Obama or b) have Michigan seated without a re-vote.

Care to guess the probability of this getting resolved prior to Denver? (My guess: no chance)

[Chasing Dreams]

34. Sorry, that's not correct. The do-overs in MI and FL change the calculus completely.

There are 4048 delegates without these states, so 50%+1 = victory or the 2025 total noted in this thread.

However, MI and FL have another 366 delegates (including supers) after the do over, which will happen. That means a total of 4414 delegates, and 2208 to win.

So assuming the CNN 1611-1480 current count is correct, let's further assume that Hillary wins MI & FL 55% to 45%, and takes the same percentage of delegates. That would give Hillary 201 delegates from MI / FL, and Obama 155. Put differently, she cuts into the current 131 delegate margin by 46 delegates, leaving Barack with only an 85 delegate lead.

Make no mistake, Obama still has the advantage. But it is not impossible for Hillary to win.

One more big however: the assumptions that Hillary wins Oregon (I live here---no way!!!), North Carolina, Montana, and Puerto Rico are way off. Obama wins these, easily. So he still looks like the nominee to me.

[Buzz Clik]

41. You're absolutely correct about the 4414 number. I didn't realize that until this moment.

Thanks. I'll revisit my spreadsheet this evening.

[VolcanoJen]

26. You're ceding Indiana and Kentucky to Clinton?

Not on my watch. :-)

[Buzz Clik]

27. No, he's working out the worst case scenario.

At the moment, North Carolina is also polling for Obama.

The real flaw in his numbers are the superdelegates that are so difficult to pin down.

[VolcanoJen]

30. Oh! Thanks. So, it's the "Generous And Improbable" Projection!

Awesome.

:thumbsup:

[FlyingSquirrel]

28. About 3.33% of voters will choose other candidates

Should include those in your calculations (not that they matter much in delegate apportioning)

I have: (Best case scenario for Hillary)

PA 85-56 H wins 55-42
IN 38-28 O wins 56-41
WV 16-10 H wins 59-38
OR 26-22 H wins 52-44
SD 8-6 O wins 52-45
Gu 2-1 H wins (no percentage)
NC 48-43 O wins 52-45
KY 25-22 H wins 52-44
MT 8-7 O wins 53-44
PR 27-24 H wins 50-46

Your delegate numbers must include supers?

:shrug:

At any rate, Hillary picks up 6 of the remaining 10 states/territories under her best case scenario and still only has a net gain of 17 delegates.

Final delegate total without MI/FL: Obama 1845, Clinton 1756 including current supers.

Obama needs 40% of 446 uncommitted delegates to reach 2,024.5 ... easy peasy.
Clinton needs 60% of 446 uncommitted delegates to reach 2,024.5 ... not gonna happen.

Ok add MI and FL in as they stand, giving Obama the uncommitted vote in MI. Now one of them needs 2,208.

Final delegate total with MI/FL: Obama 1971, Clinton 1949 including current supers.

Obama needs 48% of 495 uncommitted delegates to reach 2,208 ... easy
Clinton needs 52% of 495 uncommitted delegates to reach 2,208 ... also possible

And now you see why she has not dropped out. It's all about counting MI/FL as they stand now and taking it to the convention, disputing every possible delegate.

Wonderful, ain't it?

[donheld]

29. No way will Hillary do near as well as you say in NC/OR/MT

[thoughtcrime1984]

33. I'm being kind to prove a point

She can't win, even with wacky outcomes.

[harun]

42. It was a great point because even those thinking she is going to

do outstanding will not think she will do as good as you stated. So Barack wins.

I guess after burning through all that corporate money she had given to her she feels like she needs to give them what they paid for and stay in until the convention.

[AJH032]

35. MI/FL will revote

I find it extremely unlikely that they are not seated in any way.

[Kaotac]

36. You guys really have to lobby hard..

With the Dem leadership to get rid of this superdelegate crap. Totally insane system.

[Vinca]

39. Obama is likely to get more than that out of those states.

In addition, if there is a revote in Michigan and Florida, I expect Obama will do very well in those states, too. Hillary is mysteriously assuming those states will do it for her, but I can't tell you the number of Obama supporters I've heard of who stayed home because it didn't count. And, of course, the Geraldine comments bring in more votes to Obama.

[phrigndumass]

40. K&R

Obama only needs about 35% of the remaining superdelegates if the remaining primaries are 50/50.

More info:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5055743

[Scurrilous]

43. K & R

:thumbsup: