Is Hillary's delegate count inflated?

[Deny and Shred]

As reported in the MSM, there has been an effort by Rush and other repugnant Republicans to keep the Democratic primary close; therefore, they sent out RNC loyalists to vote Clinton in the Dem primaries.

I am the first to question the MSM, BUT ... there does seem to be credence in this plea, at least in the last couple primaries. Specifically, a few of these open primaries had 'One Time Dems' vote for Hillary, i.e., Republicans trying to sway the Dem nominee, or at least keep it undecided and make our party look ameteurish, disorganized, undecided, etc.

If one accepts that this crossover primary voting IS the case, I ask my fellow DUers: Is Hillary's delegate count inflated?

If you accept this MSM observation, Republican voters who will not vote for her in the General Election are making up some percentage of her primary tally delegate count. This is made up of non-believers, who just want to see the Dem primary drag out. People who just want to see resources spent and dirt dug up on the eventual candidate.

I will just add, I have always admired Hillary for the most part, and have hoped she'd be a ground-breaker, and she has.

Also, I may be among the only guys in America who actually thinks she's kinda cute, (not that physical appearance matters when it comes to policy, but, I must mention that because she's been the target of such scorn for so long.)

I refuse to draw a line in the sand between the two remaining Dem hopefuls, and pledge to vote for whoever's name is next to the lever when I enter the booth. I know some of you out there are with me, and I invite your responses.

To the candidate partisans, I'd like to limit this thread to the question of quasi-Parliamentary procedure in the subject line. The past 7 years sure can inflame, which can lead to strong feelings either way. Lord knows there are plenty of DU venues for voicing opnions about which candidate you support.

I guess I'd just like to see some solidarity headed into the Summer, not some Convention fiasco that will only weaken the chances of whichever candidate emerges...because if McCain somehow wins, I don't know what I'm gonna do.
It's ours to take, and I CAN see us blowing it. If this crossover phenomenon is true, then Hillary is not as strong a candidate as the delegate count would have us believe.

[Nitrogenica]

1. It is inflated by freeps whom only want to win against Hillary in November

They will vote for her before they vote against her.

Isn't that a flip-flop?

[SirScud]

2. Cross-over inflation

I completely agree with your analogy, and the concerns you have voiced. The acceptance of the cross-over votes by the Clinton campaign is understandable, given the circumstances they are in, but the principal goal of a Democrat victory in 2008 should not be sacrificed on the alter of over zealous loyalty to any candidate.

[MonkeyFunk]

3. Obama's is more inflated

by your standards.

Clinton leads among Democratic voters.

[JimGinPA]

4. Unfortunately For HRC Democrats Aren't Going To Be The Only Voters In Nov.

[MonkeyFunk]

5. That's not the issue

don't change the question.

The question is about delegates gotten from Democratic primaries. Democrats prefer Clinton to Obama.

I find it it hysterical how you guys tout Obama's independent and republican votes when it suits your purpose, then attack Clinton for getting any independent and republican votes when it serves your purpose.

[JimGinPA]

6. If You Can't See The Difference Between Attracting Indy's & Moderate Repubs...

To your point of view and having repubs cross over in a primary just to affect the outcome, you might really be as stupid as some of your posts suggest.

[MonkeyFunk]

7. For the purposes of this thread, that's irrelevant

You keep switching the terms of the discussion.

The fact is, more Democrats vote for Clinton than for Obama. That's what we're discussing here.

[Hepburn]

8. The reason behind the switch is what is important IMO....

...and there are two basic reasons:

1. A voter switches over to vote for Clinton who is the weaker of the two Dem candidates in order to give McCain a better shot in November.

2. A voter wants a change, is tired of politics as usual, and switches over to vote for Obama because they feel he will bring that and this voter intends to vote for Obama in the GE.

So, in one case, #1, the switch is bad for our party, and in the other case it is good.

The two reasons IMO are hugely different and Hillary for the most part is the cause of the bad switches whereas Obama for the most part is the cause of the good switches. The big clue on that is that so many RW nut cases like El Rushbo are strongly encouraging their listeners to switch in the open primaries to vote for her. They appear to see her as the weaker candidate and the candidate who will unify the Pubbies and others to get out and vote for McCain.

So, yes, some times a switch is good and some times it is bad.

JMHO

[Deny and Shred]

16. This is a good summary of what I meant, Hepburn.

Though honest crossovers for Hillary and hurtful ones for Obama are certainly happening. It is virtually impossible to differentiate between case #1 and #2, unless the crossover voter actually does what a few in Ohio did. Ohio asks non-Dems to sign a pledge to the principles of the party, and some wrote notes along with their signature indicating that they were only voting Democrat for one day.
Other than those people it's hard to know the true numbers, and reasons. I read on another DU thread where someone put the Ohio crossover number at 16,000, where OxycontinMan told his 'audience' to vote Hillary. If accurate, this is not insignificant.
Case#1 is people crossing over for real, case#2 is crossing over to keep the two candidates at one another's throats as long as possible.
Anecdotally, Obama has more of case 1, Hillary more of case 2. That isn't proof, but overt campaigns to engage in case two like the one by Captain Rush Rush do add credence.

[Maribelle]

9. Obama's "be a democrat for a day" campaign indicates this attraction is fleeting, he doesn't care...

about attracting these for the General Election. It appears Obama's quest for the crossover voters focuses merely on the primary as far as the "for a day" pomp is concerned, an obvious attempt by Obama in certain areas to turn the Democratic Party nominee process into a free for all for Republicans, Independents and others.

Notice he did not publish his "be a democrat for a day" pomp in Mississippi? There was a pressing reason he did not do this, you know.

[JimGinPA]

10. You Post Is Entirely Void Of Reason And Fact

[Maribelle]

12. It is the facts contained in my post that obama supporters do not want to hear.

Are you trying to deny that the Obama campaign, in places like Nevada, published the "be a Democrat for a day" brochure and widely distributed it?

Facts are inconvenient things, now aren't they.

[weezy2736]

19. I think a smart politician would focus on the primaries first.

I think a smart politician would also use every resource to their advantage, whether that be independents or republicans. If it's law that independents and republicans can vote in these primaries, then why shouldn't they if they feel strongly about a candidate? Do their votes not count because they aren't democrats/isn't that disenfranchisement? What are you arguing?

If you're suggesting that Obama will win the nomination and then turn his back on his key supporters, then you're quite possibly the craziest person I have ever met. If you're trying to say that he's just out to screw Hillary, then you're nuts.

[Exilednight]

11. This was what MSNBC said about the SD count.....

They contact both campaigns and ask for a list of super delegates, and promise to keep the names secret - unless the super delegate goes public.

What MSNBC noticed is that both campaigns turned in lists with names showing up on both lists. Those Super Delegates have been removed from both candidates list.

Is someone inflating their numbers? Yes - who that someone is, is hard to tell. In could be Barack, it could be Hillary, or it could be both.

[Orsino]

13. I'm not sure that this question can ever be answered meaningfully.

Open primaries guarantee the possibility of cross-over voting, but the phenomenon is hard to measure, and sorting out the genuine converts from the hostile cross-overs may be impossible.

[karynnj]

14. This is not a problem that Clinton caused and it may be within the law

This is not the first time that people have spoken of people crossing party lines once their nominee is determined. This is a risk taken when you can change close to the date or on the date of the primaries.

The one thing that I think is different is that there are RW talk show hosts advocating for doing this for the purpose of creating chaos or havoc and harming the Democratic party. This has to be, at least, unethical, does anyone know if it is illegal or at least something the FCC should have an interest in. Should we be asking legislators on the appropriate Commerce committee to investigate this?

[cooolandrew]

15. It is important to put out there to whoever you know that DNC is seekig to fine temporary voters.

[rinsd]

17. States where Obama won GOP crossover voting according to CNN exit polls; MO, LA, VA, & TX

CNN only gives breakdown for each candidate when the percentage of Republicans is 5% or greater and even then they did not always determine a winner so we have limited data. But with that at minimum 5% we can see where Obama has built his delegate lead to this point.

Party affiliations are usually on page 3 of the exit poll.

For instance for Feb 5th elections we only have Alabama & Missuori

In AL, Hillary beat Obama 52 to 45 in Republican votes - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#ALDEM

In MO, Obama won GOP votes 75 to 21 - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#MODEM

Obama also won Republicans (usually in the same 3 to 1 fashion Hillary just did) in:

LA - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#LADEM

VA - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#VADEM

They tied the GOP vote in OH - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#OHDEM

Obama won the GOP vote in TX 53 to 46 - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#TXDEM

Then we have MS which Hillary won by her 3 to 1 margin - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#MSDEM

For those keeping score at home when the data is available to determine a winner, Hillary has won 2 matches involving GOP crossover votes one of them handily enough for her to get extra delegates.

Obama has won the crossover vote 4 times. 3 times by a 3 to 1 margin. Once by a slim margin.

[Arkansas Granny]

18. There has been Republican crossover vote reported for both candidates.

I don't know how you would separate those who are actually going to vote for the Democratic nominee in the GE and those who are trying to influence our nomination.