So I've got a couple thoughts.

[gcomeau]

Good grief it's been a long time since I browsed through DU. And what do I find when I peek back in here? Clinton and Obama supporters going for each other's throats like rabid dogs. Well that's just a lovely thing to see. I'm sure it makes any Republican's day, they probably stop in here on their lunch breaks just to cheer themselves up watching the circus o' idiots. Yeah, I said it... idiots. Before I continue with the rest of my thoughts on this primary I'd like to get this out of the way first. If you are an Obama supporter who is being flat out derogatory and insulting to Clinton supporters, or to Clinton herself, you are a moron. You are hurting Obama, you are hurting the Democratic cause, and you are acting like a child. If you are a Clinton supporter who just got the urge to post something snide and gloating about what I just said about those kool-aid drinking Obama cultists it goes for you jackasses too so check your impulse to leap upon your keyboard and go stand in the corner, facing the wall, and take a time out until you can stop acting like a 6 year old.

That out of the way, a few points. They've been said elsewhere, but they bear repeating so I'm going to repeat them.

1. Barring something resembling an act of God, Obama is the nominee.

Don't start waving your hands and punching delegate numbers into your calculators and talking about how if Clinton just wins these and these sates by these ridiculous margins and they seat the Michigan and Florida delegates without making them re-vote even though Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan and the superdelegates swing the vote her way then yes, YES she could still be the nominee!!!!

It isn't going to happen.

They are not going to seat Michigan and Florida without a re-vote. That is settled. If there is a re-vote, with the proportional awarding of delegates, and with only Obama and Clinton to choose between at this point in the game, does Clinton pick up a hundred and fifty or so delegates on Obama in two states? No chance in hell. None. Get a grasp on reality for cripes sake. Whether they end up working something out in Florida and Michigan or not, it won't change that Obama will go to the convention leading in pledged delegates.

The superdelegates are NOT going to swing the vote against him when that happens. The reason they will not do this is because they have no particular interest in torpedoing the entire democratic party for the next 15 years or so. They're not that stupid. Whichever candidate goes into the convention with the most pledged delegates is going to walk away with the nomination. Yes, it is a hypothetical possibility that the superdelegates would vote for a candidate that lost the pledged delegate race, but it's not happening under these conditions. It just isn't. Not with GE polls showing that the candidate leading is also the candidate performing better against the presumptive Republican nonimee, and with a massive incredibly highly energized base of voters the party has been unsuccessfully trying to get up off their asses to vote for the last decade. They're not going to turn around and give that voting block the finger now that someone has finally managed to mobilize them.

The media may be playing up the "there's still a lot of delegates at stake, and neither of them has it clinched omg it's down to the wire!!!" angle for everything it's worth. Of course they are, it makes the race exciting. Exciting races get ratings. But the reality is this race is over, barring a miracle for Clinton or a catastrophe for Obama.

2. Clinton is letting her ego get the better of her.

Let me make this clear, I've never had any real problem with Hillary. Going into this primary I was perfectly fine with the idea of her winning the Democratic nomination. But since the week leading into the Texas and Ohio primaries she has crossed the line, and she has placed her personal ambitions to make herself the president ahead of the far more important consideration of keeping the republicans from actually managing to put one of their own in to follow Bush/Cheney and mostly carry on their policies. She went hard negative on Obama in a way that she never should have done. At that point in the race he was the very high probability Democratic nominee (he has only gotten more so since, his delegate lead is higher now with less states to go) and having a high profile member of the Democratic party declaring to the world that he isn't ready for the presidency and is nothing but a collection of good speeches is inexcusable at that stage in the game. Especially when that person clearly doesn't belive it herself considering she made overtures to him for a vice presidential slot.

Right about now there is someone getting all fired up to write a reply to make the argument that he had to be exposed to those arguments now because the Republicans would make them in the general election. Do grow up. The difference between having the Republicans saying those things about him and having the other major contending Democratic presidential nominee say them is so ridiculously vast it can be seen from space. Let the Republicans say it. They're expected to say it. They're the bloody Republicans, of course they're going to say it. And because it's them saying it there's a large cross-section of the country that wouldn't listen just because it's them saying it and that's business as usual. The Republicans are criticizing the Democratic nominee... news at freaking 11. Hillary doing their job for them changes that dynamic. And she needs to knock it off right now. She isn't going to win, all she's doing is inflicting damage on her way down. It's stupid and spiteful and it needs to stop. She is polarizing her own supporters against the person her own party is most likely running for President and every day it continues she's boosting McCain's odds. And there's no excuse for it any more than there is any excuse for the supporters of both parties to be tearing into each other HERE.

And before anyone points at my opening and says "Aha! How you're attacking Clinton!" I'm criticizing her chosen course of action. There's a profound difference.

3. The whole "cult of Obama" line.

What is the deal here? Seriously? Are people actually complaining that the prospective Democratic nominee is able to inspire fervent devotion in his supporters? Aren't we looking for someone to run for the office of the leader of the country? Isn't a fairly fundamental criteria for the job of leader the ability to actually get people to follow you? And that's what we're going to tear into the guy for?

Yes, the man gives a hell of a speech. GOOD.

Yes, the man inspires enthusiastic devotion in those he brings into his tent. GOOD.

Is that all he is? Charisma and a nice vocabulary? Sure... because that's exactly what gets you, say, Magna Cum Laude from Harvard Law and editing the Harvard Law Review, a gift for pitching your voice well and making people like you when you talk. No other qualifications required, that's exactly what those guys look for... come on people. We've got a candidate with actual brains and we're complaining that it comes wrapped in charisma too. What a horrible thing.

In summary: Obama's going to be the nominee unless there's some kind of act of God. That is not a bad thing. Knock off the damn internecine warfare and flinging of rhetoric at each other, line up behind the guy already, and turn it on the Republicans for cripes sake. I swear, it's like there's a whole giant faction of people in here who just plain like losing elections.

[jakem]

1. well done.

[Spider Jerusalem]

2. Agreed on all points.

:thumbsup:

[proud2BlibKansan]

3. . . .

:applause:

[oldgrowth]

4. Well said !!!!!!!!!!!!!nt

[crispini]

5. .

:kick:

[Medusa]

6. I wouldn't call it ego

I'd call it hubris or maybe just desperation. This was hers she thought. Everyone said she was inevitable. And suddenly she finds out that wasn't the case.

[Smelting Pot]

7. I hope that people actually read this...

and don't just label it as "Obama supporter rhetoric." Fewer and fewer supporters on both sides are willing to listen to the other side lately.

Thanks for putting this out there and spending the time to explain things even if it falls on many deaf ears.

[Jamastiene]

8. I thought I smelled something burning. n/t

[Labors of Hercules]

9. I have never put another North Carolinian on ignore...

PLEASE don't make me do it today. please?

[Beacool]

10. Nice post, except........

To many of us it's not just about Hillary, there are plenty of us who believe that Obama is not prepared nor experienced enough to be president at this point in time.

All the polls done so far have proven that a good portion of Hillary's supporters will vote for McCain (25%) and many others have stated that they'll either vote for Nader or stay home.

This is not about ego, neither for Hillary, neither for us who support her. It's simply about electing the person who is best for the job, and we believe that person to be Hillary.

:shrug:

[Spider Jerusalem]

12. But she can't actually WIN.

At this point, she's in the position of a team that wants to play out the whole of a seven game series after losing four straight. She can take it all the way, but it won't change the outcome.

[BornBlue]

13. That's fine

Let 'em vote for someone else, or stay home. Obama has won more states by a larger margin. So say he does lose 25% of her supporters, that still leaves him with 75% of her supporters and 100% of his who are turning out in record numbers for a primary, wait till the GE. Not to mention many repubs who dislike McCain and are willing to punish their party by not voting at all in the fall. It should be an easy win for him, as long as she does not bring him down too much on her way out.

[Beacool]

16. If you really think that you can win the WH without Hillary and her supporters,

then you are simply dreaming.

[BornBlue]

20. But you said 25% that is not all of Hillary's

supporters, it's only 25%. There are plenty of Hillary supporters out there who don't hate Obama, just don't like him as much. I am an Obama supporter, I will make no secret of it, but as long as things don't get too out of control in regards to her and her negative campaigning, I will vote for her in the fall. We can't give the White House to the repubs for another day, let alone 4 years.

[gcomeau]

17. Well that's all well and good...

...except it doesn't address my point. You're entitled to your opinion that Hillary is the more qualified candidate, I happen to think they're pretty near parity as far as experience and qualifications are concerned, but that doesn't alter the fact that Obama is the candidate who is actually going to be the nominee barring something incredibly momentous turning the race upside down at the last minute. Ripping into him at this point in the contest is doing one thing only that I can see, it's improving the odds that the Republicans are going to be able to put McCain in the White House.

So what is the argument that Hillary should continue the course of action she has chosen? What is the benefit it provides? If this isn't about ego, what is she trying to do? She can't possibly be less aware of the basic math of this situation than we are. There's little chance she doesn't realize that there's almost no way she can get the nomination at this point. So what is the purpose of continuing to run and trying to undermine confidence in Obama at this stage in the game?

[Beacool]

18. She is trying to win the nomination, that's all.

There's no evil reasons behind it. She also sees how energized her supporters are and how we have dug our heels in and don't want her to quit, and it's just not words. In the 2 days after the March 4th vote, she received over $6M dollars from her supporter and most were from small donations.

Do you understand the kind of love and support that many feel for her? It's the same thing that many of you feel for Obama. How would you react if the situation was reversed and we kept telling his supporters that he should drop out for the good of the party?

[gcomeau]

19. Trying to win the nomination...

...on what basis? How does she, or her supporters, actually expect her to get the nomination at this stage? Is there any scenario that doesn't involve incredible unrealistic requirements for her to obliterate Obama by 30 to 40 point margins in the remaining states? Or to have the superdelegates commit party suicide by reversing the outcome in the pledged delegate race? What is the reasoning?

And I personally don't feel "love" for Obama. I could have perhaps made this clearer in the opening post, and my last response, but I would have been pefectly happy with Clinton as nominee. But the time in which that was a reasonable and rational expectation has come and gone. remaining in the race at this stage is not helping, and attacking Obama while remaining in the race is flat out hurting and pushing the general election towards the Republicans. And I'm sorry, but I don't think Clinton is stupid, which means she can't be completely blind to that.

So if it isn't ego driven, what is it? What scenario is it that she realistically believes wins her the nomination at this point in the race? What scenario do YOU realistically belive does it? Winning Pennsylvanis isn't even going to get close. Not unless she does it by about 50 points.

[Laelth]

25. Not to respond for Beacool, but something worth considering.

Time ran an article a couple of weeks ago called "The Bitter Half" in which it explored Bill Clinton's role in the Hillary campaign. The essay suggests that Bill has acquired a Bush-like ability to deny reality coupled with a refusal to admit his own mistakes. Here's the link:

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1717925,00.html

It could be that Bill simply cannot accept that he might lose. He might be convinced of his own ability to persuade the Credentials Committee and the Super-delegates to give the nomination to Hillary. He may be entirely oblivious to the damage he would do to the party if he did use his influence to get Hillary nominated.

Despite my snark below, I agree with you that it's time for the party to unite behind Obama, and I am very concerned about the health and welfare of the party, as I have said on a number of occasions, including the following:

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Laelth/22

It seems apparent that Hillary and her followers are determined to keep fighting this thing to the very end. That's why I have little hope that your call for sanity will be heeded. I hope I am wrong about that. For the good of the Party, the time has come to unite.

-Laelth

[LisaM]

29. No, they don't understand it. I'm also getting really tired of people getting on the soapbox

and trying to talk down to me and eplain Obama's inevitability. I don't care for it. I also don't like the blithe dismissal of Michigan and Florida.

Hillary is winning the big states. Obama has won a lot of little states, many of which did not go blue in 2000 and 2004, and which are unlikely to go blue now (I count Georgia outside of this equation). He has done well in caucuses, which favor students and people who can get away for the fixed two-hour time, but less well in primaries. This is not a good pattern for the GE.

Every time I see someone trying to "reason with me", I know it's going to be some condescending Obama supporter. Then it will be followed by a bunch of other Obama supporters acting like FINALLY some NEUTRAL person is weighing in on the side of SANITY. Oh, glory! Oh, you are so wise! Meanwhile, those of us supporting Hillary are marginalized once again. No one ever listens to, or cares, WHY we support her! It's so irrelevant, I guess.

[gcomeau]

30. Then explain it.

"Hillary is winning the big states." Great. Fine. How exactly is that getting her the nomination at the convention if she continues campaigning?

Before you tell me I don't listen to why you support her, try answering the question I asked about that very thing. At least give me the opportunity to listen instead of just declaring I won't without bothering to give me anything to listen to. That's not asking a great deal, and this is only the third time I've posed that question in this thread.

What is the rationale you are using? How are you expecting Hillary continuing to campaign and attack Obama to result in her actually getting the nomination at the convention given the current situation? Saying "she's winning big states" doesn't answer that. Saying you don't think Obama will do as well as her in the GE, despite all polling to the contrary, doesn't answer that. You're saying why you personally think she should be the nominee and just ignoring how that's supposed to happen if she keeps going.

[Beacool]

31. Well, they'll sure as hell listen in November when we don't vote for Obama.

If Hillary is not on the ticket, my vote is either staying home or going to Nader. Whoever doesn't like it, too damn bad!!

[gcomeau]

32. Well that's great, thank you.

I asked you a perfectly reasonable question how you expect your candidate to win if she continues campaigning, and you proceed to ignore me to post about how we'll listen to you when you refuse to vote if your candidate doesn't win, again neglecting to provide an outline of how you reasonably expect such a thing to happen in the first place. You know, it's hard to listen to your reasons when you refuse to provide them.

Here, it's not hard:

First she can be at least rationally expected to pull off wins in remaining states: ________ by margins: _______ while performing to at least this level: _____ in these other remaining states: _____

This will give her a pledged delegate count going into the convention of: _____ to Obama's: ______

At this point this argument can be made to the superdelegates:______________________________________________________________

... with a reasonable expectation that it will be accepted and cause them to provide her with enough support to cross the nomination threshold ahead of Obama, and Hillary will become the nominee.

There. I wrote the whole outline for you. It's just a matter of fill in the blanks now. I assume you do have answers that go in those blanks, and lead to the conclusion that you have a basis for arguing for a continued campaign? If you guys want to complain we refuse to listen to your reasons for supporting Hillary continuing to campaign prove it by showing us you actually have a reason for pushing for her to continue that we're not listening to. Where is this reason you speak of that leads to "Hillary can win the nomination"?

[gcomeau]

35. kick...

...just in case someone feels like filling those blanks in and explaining why Hillary should still be campaigning.

[IDemo]

11. Where's that multiplication sign next to the recommend button?

Terrific post, gcomeau.

[BornBlue]

14. THANK YOU!!

You are a godsend.

[latinolatteliberal]

15. DU acting like 6 year olds? That's hugely insulting to 6 year olds.

I especially liked the point on attacking Obama as a preparation for the GOP attacks. Good stuff.

[Laelth]

21. Condescending and, perhaps, deservedly so.

I suppose people who are acting like children deserve to be spoken to like children. Perhaps.

Just a question, OP. Do you think it will work?

:toast:

-Laelth

[gcomeau]

22. Define 'work'.

'Work' as in suddenly all the attack dogs on either side of this thing who think they're actually accomplishing anything by calling the other side sexist or racist or the spawn of satan are suddenly going to all come to their senses and start behaving rationally once they read this? No.

'Work' as in possibly persuade a few people to temper their reactions and rethink their positions considering the stage in the race we're at? And maybe they'll go on to positively influence the atmosphere in here a bit themselves, and so on? One can always hope. And if it doesn't work at least I took a shot.

[Laelth]

24. Fair enough. You identified the two possibilities I saw.

I am a big fan of realistic hope.

-Laelth

[DarienComp]

23. That's sexist.

just kidding. :evilgrin:

[Flabbergasted]

26. kick

[solara]

27. Beautifully said and I couldn't agree more - thank you

Kickety :kick:

INVESTIGATE IMPEACH INDICT IMPRECATE INCARCERATE :patriot:

[redqueen]

28. K&R

[LuckyLib]

33. Yes. "come on people. We've got a candidate with actual brains and we're complaining

that it comes wrapped in charisma too." Imagine that! And he happens to be biracial. We're at war with the Repugs, remember?

[davidlynch]

34. Very clear and concise, mirrors my thoughts exactly n/t

[thoughtcrime1984]

36. K&R- Well said!

[metalluk]

37. You're mistaken.

Clinton can win and will stay in the game until it's fully played out. It has nothing to do with ego, anymore than when a sports team tries its hardest until the last out is registered.

There are so many things that could happen in the next five weeks to alter the remaining primaries. All Clinton needs is to gain a bit more momentum. An Obama snafu, a revelation, increasing polarization of voters. Who knows. It's far from out of the realm of possibility. Come-backs happen and this one is less of a long-shot than many others.

No amount of nay-saying on your part is going to undermine the determination of the Clinton team and their supporters to give it the best shot they can. For many of us, there's no downside to seeing it through to the end, because Obama is just not a satisfactory nominee. The only choices for some of us are a Clinton nomination or not voting Democratic this year.

If Clinton narrows the gap in elected delegates, wins the popular votes, trounces Obama in PA, and continues to gain momentum, the superdelegates will come around. Furthermore, the analysts among the Democratic Party leadership will likely do a state by state analysis of each candidates chances of beating McCain and go with the one with the best chance, if the two nominees are close at that point. The whole point of having superdelegates is to protect the interests of the Party.

[gcomeau]

38. There are some blank spaces in post 32.

Would you care to fill them in, in some kind of detail?

[gcomeau]

39. Final kick

Just in case there are any Hillary supporters who can fill in those blanks in reply #32 and tell the rest of us how exactly Hillary is reasonably expected to win the nomination if she continues this campaign and draws out this increasingly destructive process.