ARG Poll Kerry 48 % Bush 43 %

[Nicholas_J]

Apr 9 Bush Kerry Undecided

All voters 44% 50% 6%

Republicans 81% 10% 9%
Democrats 3% 95% 2%
Independents 46% 45% 9%

Mar 2004 43% 50% 7%
Feb 2004 46% 48% 6%
Jan 2004 46% 47% 7%

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/presballot/

Important fact. Percentage of Democrats who would now vote for Bush is at an all time low for party crossover for president in over 50 years with only 3 percent of Democrats stating they would vote for Bush. On the other side, the percentage of Republicans who state they will vote for Kerry is at 8 percent. In this poll, and equal percentage of Democrats and Republicans would choose Nader. Bush loses 2 percetn to Nader, Kerry loses 2 percent to Nader.

With Nader Out of the race Kerry's percentage goes up to 50 and Bush goes up to 44.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. Unusual:

In past elections we usually see

85% of Democrats behind the Dem Candidate and 12% of them behind the Republican.

In this election we see 95% of Democrats behind the Democratic Candidate and 10% Republicans behind the Democratic Candidate.

[mobuto]

5. Agreed

Unless its a fluke, it seems to indicate just how angry Democrats are. This doesn't necessarily translate into solid support for Kerry per se, but it means that a lot of people will line behind anybody but Bush.

[David Dunham]

2. It's amazing even 3% of Dems support Bush

[kodi]

3. trhey must have polled zel miller

.

[mark11727]

4. They must be RICH dems...

... who benefitted from *'s tax breaks.

[Democat]

10. George Soros is a rich Democrat and he doesn't like Bush!

Maybe it's just people who aren't paying enough attention.

[leyton]

15. They may be local dems.

That is, they support their local Democrats (in municipal and Congressional races) because the Democratic party in their locality is conservative. Thus they register as Democrats, but still vote Republican nationally. I think this happens in the South a lot, where the Democratic party remains strong statewide but has a hard time winning Senate and Presidential elections.

[MidwestTransplant]

6. Only way the numbers could look better if independents

went more our way.

[mobuto]

7. Independents may not yet be focussing on the race

They typically pay attention later, but Kerry may still win even if he (narrowly) loses independents. This race is all about turnout - you're not going to see the race to the middle that you saw in past years. Sure, there will be some attempt to reach swing voters, but both campaigns are really gearing up to appeal to committed partisans.

[rockymountaindem]

9. Turnout is key.

I'm in total agreement with you on that one mobuto. We all have to do what we can to make sure everyone we know is a liberal gets out and votes.

[damnraddem]

8. But now, we need to know about states.

And only local/state polls have enough in-state respondents to know about that.

[Gothmog]

11. I have never seen the party this united

I have voted Democratic in every election since 1976 and this is the most unified that I have seen the party. Part of this is that some are still pissed at the theft of the 2000 election. The fact that Bush has been a disaster helps a great deal.

[Nicholas_J]

12. Since the 1980 election

And the birth of the Reagan Democrat the percentage of Demos voting for a republican presidential candidate has been as high as 20 percent and no lower than 10 percent so it is fairly obvious that Bush has polarized the country to a very larrge degree and has the percentage of Republicans who will vote against him and vote for a democrat has gone up more than any Republican after Reagan.

Out of all of the Democratic candidates Kerry was the one who appealed to the greatest number of Democrats as well.

I think that the results of the 2000 election are a part of this, but given the number of Republicans who are polled as voting for Kerry rather than Bush is indicative that other factors are more likely to be in play, such as the large deficit, increasing the federal budget in ways that end up leaving the country and do not result in a return opf revenues to the federal coffers, such as giving government contracts to corporations like Halliburton and Bechtel who completely avoid paying federal taxes by having their corporations set up in tax havens, as well as keeping te money offshore, thus taking massive sums out of the United States, draining the economy. THe fat that mst of the mosey in federal contracts in Iraq go to these corporations adds fuel to that fire as well.

[MoonRiver]

13. Great news!! Thanks for posting!

I think the polls are consistently going up for Kerry and down for * and Nader. I think it will only get better. Now what do we do with the BBV problem? Doesn't matter how many vote if their votes aren't counted.

[Nicholas_J]

14. Recent Bloomberg Report

Is also stateing that Kerry is either at a dead heat with Bush in many polls is ahead in a number of them, and that in some polls the gap between Kerry and Bush is growing in Kerrys favor:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=auYHujefjAZw&refer=top_world_news

Another article I recently read suggested that Bush's recent increase in Florida in the Mason Dixon Poll may reverse soon as the Mason Dixon polling was finished just before the recent crisis in Iraq started, and that in the ARG poll which has been done since that, Kerry and Bush are in a dead heat again in Florida with Kerry 1 point ahead of Bush in that poll.

Also Kerry has a double digit lead among Hispanics both nationally and in Florida and Bush has been trying to court Hispanics in Florida since that poll, but on Monday, Hnry Cisneros is coming to Orlando (Bush is doing better in Florida North of Orlando), to go over all of Bush's broekn promises to Hispanics, along with a number of Hispanic Florida Legislators:

Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Henry Cisneros, Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), Florida State Representative Bob Henriquez, Los Angeles City Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa, and Democratic National Committee Hispanic Outreach Director Nelson Reyneri will participate in the call.

http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=106-04092004

While Miami has a heavily Cuban Hispanic population, Kerry appeal to 7 out of 10 hispanics who are older than 65, including Cubans who have for years voted Republican due to memories of the "Bay of Pigs"

The I-4 Corridor which Orlando is in the center of has a realtively high non-Cuban Hispanic population and Kerry is also ahead of Bush in that area among Hispanics, so Kerry's hispanic supporters are going into action on the same day that Bush is supposed to attempt to start courting Hispanics in Orlando.

[MoonRiver]

16. That is all very encouraging.

Seven months and counting. O8)