Can Bush Win Without Ohio?

[maisey03]

There's that old saying: "A Republican has never won without Ohio." But, I wondering - just because it's never been done, does that mean it's impossible? If Bush lost Ohio but won Florida and a couple of the midwestern swing states - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, etc., could he still win? I've never tried to experiment with the different possiblilities... Honestly, I don't even know how many votes it takes to win (my political science background is pretty weak) or how many votes each state has. I only know Ohio has 20 and Florida has 25. Has anyone else been playing around with this? Is it possible?

Oh, I just noticed that I still don't have my donation star! Ugh, that makes me mad - I donated over a week ago.

[onehandle]

1. Yes, but not this time.

Ohio will be the game in this election, and it's looking good for us.

[DaveSZ]

2. Yes he can

But he'd have to take Pennsylvania from us.

[phillybri]

3. Nope...

If Kerry takes Ohio and New Hampshire (in addition to the blue states), he can lose Florida, New Mexico, and Iowa and it won't matter...

[ps1074]

4. No

No republican has ever won the White House without carrying OH. There is no reason to think Fearless Leader will be the first to do it.

[leyton]

13. I wouldn't say that...

He was the first modern Republican to win without California. And to lose the popular vote. And to see his party gain seats in Congress during the first midterm (although this may not be unheard of in modern times, it's not normal). While I think Ohio is our key, I think it's because Ohio is reflective of the nation.

[spooky3]

5. there's an interactive electoral map at John Edwards' site.

You may want to try out several possibilities there.

[Bombtrack]

6. I mean, yeah, he COULD win without Texas

but of course we're dealing with probability, not possibility. He's unlikely to win if we win Ohio, but you could say that about any handful of swing electoral votes.

[galadrium]

7. I doubt it

[yellowcanine]

8. No he can't because it means that he also is losing in other places that

could offset the loss - like Pennsylvania or Michigan for example. Andmaybe he loses Missouri as well. If * loses Ohio, he loses.

[ludwigb]

9. Bush is trying to turn Minnesota and Wisconsin

Would that be enough to offset losing Ohio?

[ButterflyBlood]

10. yes, but it's not happening

we have 20 electoral votes combined, Ohio has 20.

However, that is very unlikely to happen. He is running endless ads here in Minnesota and it's not causing a crack to appear in Kerry. He's so hated here he shouldn't even bother.

[ButterflyBlood]

11. No Republican in history ever has

It's their most crucial swing state. If he loses it, he'll be so far behind in most other states he has no chance.

[mot78]

14. Actually Ike lost Ohio to Adlai Stevenson in 1956 and still won

n/t.

[maisey03]

15. I've never heard about that one...

I'm glad we voted against Ike, even if he still won. He was an evil devil. He wanted to test nuclear weapons on his own people. I wonder why people are still throwing around that phrase then (?).

[ButterflyBlood]

17. really?

it says Eisenhower won in a landslide here: http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/state.php?year=1956&fips=39

you're probably thinking of Missouri. Missouri has voted with the winner in every election except 1956 when it voted for Stevenson, and 2000 when it voted for * instead of the actual winner Gore.

[LiberalFighter]

24. 1956 Electoral votes for Stevenson

AL - 10
AR - 08
GA - 12
MS - 08
MO - 13
NC - 14
SC - 08

Total 73

NARA Source

[dolstein]

12. Sure -- if he wins Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

Now it seems unlikely to me that he'll win without Ohio. If he loses Ohio, he'll probably lose Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as well. But there's a first time for everything, and, in purely mathematical terms, it can be done.

[Nailzberg]

16. the real question - Can Bush Win Without Cheating?

And the answer is no.

[maisey03]

19. I don't know...

Even cheating may not get Bush Ohio. This is Ohio, not Florida. We're not owned by Jeb. There is heavy tension b/w the parties here -there are Democrats who are out for Taft's blood. I honestly don't think that he could get away with something like this. The Democrats are more distrustful of the administration since the Florida vote - they don't want that happening here.

Has anyone heard any updates on the Ken Blackwell/voting machines situation? The last thing that I heard was that several of the Dem. reps were fighting him on getting the machines installed by November.

[WI_DEM]

18. It would be very difficult

If Dems hold on to all of their 2000 states and win Ohio obviously Bush will lose. I can't see how Dems could win Ohio and lose some other industrial state.

[Zynx]

20. Technically, but not in practice.

No Republican has EVER won without Ohio.

[Hippo_Tron]

21. Unless Kerry camps out in Ohio until November, then no...

If Ohio goes Blue then most of the other swing states will be going blue, unless Kerry focuses an insane amount of time and money on one particular state.

[maisey03]

22. Thanks for the replies...

So it looks like if Ohio goes blue, and given the rest of the midwestern blues stay blue, then Kerry could win (?). The question that I'm afraid to ask is: Can Ohio win with Bush? I'm afraid that if Bush gets another four years, jobs will continue to leave, people will leave, and we'll lose more electoral votes. I hope that we will take a chance on Kerry. I've seen so many startling changes lately, I fear losing my job everyday. Bush just vetoed a bill to fund Ohio highways - that pretty tells the tale right there. I have faith that Ohio will make the right choice. If it doesn't, then save a place for me in Vermont. At least it has a decent governor who cares about his people. I'm not going to sit back and watch Ohio turn into a Yankee Alabama under Bush's watch.

[GOPBasher]

23. He'd have to win PA and FL.