Latest Florida Poll: Bush leads Kerry 51-43

[ringmastery]

Bush has been blasting the state with ads relentlessly.

http://www.tallahassee.com/mld/democrat/8360801.htm

[stellanoir]

1. thanks loads jeb

[Catfight]

2. I know, I see his beady little eyes every day

It's Florida, they only count the repug votes anyway.

[Florida_Geek]

3. Keep it up Jeb and Bush spend all that money now

It is only April........

[Racenut20]

4. They have 12,000 paid campaign workers here.

[dolstein]

11. Cite please?

I'd be surprised if either campaign had as many as 12,000 paid staffers nationwide, much less in a single state.

[onehandle]

5. No problem. Ohio is ours. That's the game. nt

[dolstein]

27. Not if we lose Pennsylvania and/or Wisconsin

Bush currently leads in both of those states.

[thexanman]

6. I can't watch shit without seeing Asshole's face

It's really aggravating. Can't even watch soap operas without seeing his creepy little head. Thank God C-Span doesn't have commercials.

I love Florida, but I hate being the focal point of the election.

[mzmolly]

7. Can you say Bob Graham?

;) I knew ya could!

[Bombtrack]

8. Notice they don't report that Graham subtracts 5 points from Bush's lead

if he is added to the ticket.

as reported here

http://news.tbo.com/news/MGAXBXSQOSD.html

"Adding Florida Sen. Bob Graham to the ticket brought Kerry closer to Bush, but didn't put him ahead, according to the poll. The Bush-Cheney ticket beat the Kerry-Graham ticket 49%-46%. "

[w4rma]

14. More revealing is that Edwards isn't mentioned in that poll.

Edwards helped win Florida by the same number that Graham did in a previous poll.

[saracat]

17. What is really interesting poll

wise is that Bush has dropped from 80% of the Cuban support in Florida to 58%.Numbers courtesy of CNN and supposedly the Bushies are nervous as this was a republican bedrock.

[Bombtrack]

18. We need to get Alex Penelas nominated for senate to cement and further

that. He's the only candidate virtually garenteed to help Kerry win the state in a clear way. Particularly if Mel Martinez gets the GOP nomination.

[saracat]

31. Who is

Alex Penelas?

[Bombtrack]

39. The Mayor of Miami-Dade county

He's lead the state in Job growth of all counties in a state with alot of job growth. Among many other accomplishments.

Read this article: http://www.floridahispano.com/html/alex_penelas_-_the_people_s_ma.html

<snip>
From his early childhood, Penelas was deeply inspired by his parents, Mirta and Luis Penelas. It was his late mother Mirta, a loved and devout member of Miami’s Cuban American community, who inspired him to take part in the county’s leadership. The humble origins and gentle nature of his parents shaped Mayor Penelas into the person he is today: a man of integrity, character and devotion to the community.
<snip>
As a response to this problem, Mayor Penelas created the Mayor’s Health Care Access Task Force. This 52-member group’s goal is to bring together public and private sectors to identify health access barriers; discuss ways to provide residents with quality, convenient and affordable healthcare coverage through governmental and private partnerships; and to create public awareness of available and new programs.
<snip>
On a statewide level, he spearheaded the Universal Pre-K Plan to provide free, voluntary pre-kindergarten education to all Florida four-year-olds. This plan was overwhelmingly approved by Florida voters in November 2002, and will be implemented throughout the state by 2005.
<snip>

[otohara]

9. 4 Years Ago - April 6, 2000

After months in which Mr. Bush was ahead in Florida with a double-digit lead, polls now show that Mr. Gore has closed the gap appreciably. The most recent poll, by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, had Mr. Bush with a lead of eight percentage points. Mr. Gore's advisers say that winning Florida is certainly possible, though by no means certain. Still, a common belief among Gore advisers is that their efforts in Florida come at little cost, particularly if they make Mr. Bush fight hard for victory. "If you have a tong war going on in Florida, that's a good thing," said the Gore strategist. "We don't necessarily need it."

http://www.austincc.edu/plane/cr/readings/berke.htm

[punpirate]

10. Even with Nader in the race...

... and an incomplete count of the vote, it was a dead heat in Florida in 2000. Given how badly Bush has done in the White House, how exactly does Florida, in the space of three years, go eight points up for Bush?

Has the state government been adding something to the water?

[ringmastery]

12. there's been major population growth

the west coast areas like naples, ft. myers are booming and they tend to attract rich retirees from the midwest who are republicans.

Of course, the east coast counties like miami-dade, broward, and palm beach are also booming in population but they get it mostly from immigration and those people can't vote.

[strategery blunder]

13. Rich retirees who are about to realize they got scammed

by bu$hco's "Medicare reform."

[ArkDem]

32. rich people could care less about medicare

.

[Nederland]

43. Not before the election

Medicare reform doesn't kick in till 2005.

[jsw_81]

15. We can win without Florida

I've played with the numbers, and Kerry can definitely win this thing without Florida or any other southern state for that matter. I'm not saying that we should abandon Florida -- we really need to keep that Senate seat -- but I think Kerry should focus on the industrial midwest. Putting someone like Bayh on the ticket could really help a lot in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and maybe even Indiana (which hasn't gone Democratic in forty years). If we can take Ohio, the game is over and Bush goes home to Crawford.

[fujiyama]

16. we have a stronger chance

in florida than indiana. That's a state that should be written off.

Actually I would write off any state Clinton couldn't win either time...and a few more on top of that (I really don't see Kerry winning Montana or Georgia - two states he won in '92).

[jsw_81]

19. Senator Bayh is extremely popular in Indiana

He is the son of a famous former senator (Birch Bayh) and was elected governor twice by large margins. I think Kerry/Bayh would have a real shot at taking Indiana.

[LiberalFighter]

36. Wide Margins? I don't agree for 1988. And I also dispute 92 and 98

1986 Secretary of State
Bayh 828,494 (53.32%)
Bowen 704,952 (45.37%)
*Ran against son of former governor Otis Bowen?

1988 Governor 1st term
Bayh 1,138,574 (53.19%)
Mutz 1,002,207 (46.82%)
*Ran against 2 term Lt. Governor

1992 Governor 2nd term
Bayh 1,382,151 (62.01%)
Pearson 822,533 (36.90%)
*Ran as incumbent against Attorney General (1985-1993)

1998 US Senator 1st term
Bayh 1,012,244 (63.72%)
Helmke 552,732 (34.79%)
*Ran against 3 term Ft Wayne mayor
*Helmke lost 2002 primary against nut case 4th District Representative Mark Souder -- If he couldn't beat Mark Souder!!


The only way that a Kerry/Bayh ticket would win Indiana is if gw* poll numbers continue to plummet. If that happens then a Kerry/Bayh ticket would not be necessary. And Bayh would not have that much of an influence on the neighboring states. It would be better for Kerry to have a quality VP.

President Indiana Results
2000
Gore 901,980 (41.0%)
Bush 1,245,836 (56.6%)

1996
Clinton 874,668 (36.8%)
Dole 995,082 (42.9%)

1992
Clinton 848,420 (36.8%)
Bush 989,375 (42.9%)

1988
Dukakis 860,643 (40%)
Bush 1,297,763 (60%)

[59millionmorons]

20. I dont put much faith in state polls.

They are usually done by amatuer pollsters or Colleges that arent very good at it. For example there was a poll released from Michigan on Saturday that had Kerry up only one point in MI. Now yesterday ther was a poll out of MI that had Kerry up 10. They just arent reliable. Keep this in mind there has only been two people elected who did not win the national vote. Thye majority of the most recent polls has Kerry up in FL.


MI SUSA | 4/2 -4/4 536 L 4.3% 41% 51% - Kerry +10
EPIC/MRA | 3/28-4/1 600 L 4.0% 43% 44% 3% Kerry +1

[dryan]

21. Kerry Can Win Florida

John Kerry can win in Florida. Its only April folks. Bush has pockets of support but there is not much going on in his campaign either. Unfortunately for our part, the Bush campaign has hired some bi-lingual (Spanish/English) turncoat Puerto Ricans in Central Florida who are being paid $35,000 (starting in Feb. to November) to work for the GOP campaign. Their mission is to go to all the pentecoastal churches every Sunday and hand out pro-Bush literature. They are also holding Bush slanted voters registration drives. This has caused a lot of problems in the Latin community here in Orange County -- which frankly is the linchpin to winning the state.

On the Senate race, Alex P is a turncoat. During the Elian debacle, he wouldn't support Janet Reno or President Clinton. Sorry but I can't vote for him.

[Anaxamander]

22. I'm a Florida voter...

and yes, I'm sick of the Bushit infesting my airwaves. There are some Kerry ads, but not nearly as many. It's hard for me to predict what will happen here. I live in Tallahassee, which is Leon county, which went for Gore in 2000 by a 60% to 38% margin. So it's a Democratic pocket in a sea of red in the Florida panhandle.

[qb]

23. Were any of the 90,000 purged voters included in this poll?

[bluedog]

24. where are they finding these numbers?

I have not been polled.....I seen some on line paper polls that has Kerry ahead.I think one was in the Orlando Sentinal.....don't despair.these numbers have to be made up.as far as bush ads go.let them rip......we don't listen......

[ACK]

25. F*cking Mason Dixon poll

There is something fishy about the fact that a bunch of other polls shows Kerry ahead or real close and the Mason Dixon polls always show Bush outside the margin of error.

[bluedog]

26. and I believe this??

A poll done for The Tampa Tribune and WFLA, News Channel 8, shows Bush with 51 percent support among registered voters, compared with 43 percent for Kerry, with 6 percent undecided. The poll sampled 625 voters Tuesday through Thursday, with an error margin of 4 points.


************Is this where they are getting those numbers? Polled 625.....give me a break.WFLA.limbaugh, glen beck larson station.totally right wing wackos.... the Trib.always been right leaning........

[TheDonkey]

28. CNN remarked just a few months Kerry was behind by 20+ pts

this is good news. He is catching up to the chimp. We still have 7 months.

[Nicholas_J]

29. A Tallahassee Democrtat Poll!

Give me a break...

North Florida is 2/3rds Republican.

More indicative is the recent change in the sentiments of hispanics in Miami (Dade county) who have been solidly Republican since Kennedy, and now support Kerry 54 - 33 percent.


John Kerry has advantage over Bush among Hispanic voters

BY BORIS LEONARDO CARO—Granma International staff writer—

JOHN Kerry, the Democratic candidate for the U.S. presidency, has a higher degree of preference than the current president among Hispanic electors, according to The Miami Herald.

According to a survey by this newspaper, 58% of voters of that origin are backing Kerry, as opposed to 33% who support Bush. Specialists have noted that if this trend continues, the democrats could win in traditionally disputed states such as Forida, New Mexico and Arizona, the daily comments.

In Florida, that state that gave the controversial victory to Bush in the 2000 elections, the vote is polarized among Cuban Americans, in their majority pro-Republican, and Latinos from other countries, whose numbers are higher than the former.

More a cause for concern for the Republican leader is his falling popularity in the Great Lakes region. In states such as Michigan and Ohio, less than 50% of Hispanics trust in Bush’s capacity to revert the unemployment situation. At the same time, 62% believe that a change in the presidency is needed within the country.

http://www.granma.cu/ingles/2004/abril/lun5/kerry.html

Kerry also is showing massive leads among hispanics nationally as well.

Hispanic voters prefer Kerry in 2004, poll says

ASSOCIATED PRESS


MIAMI - Democrat John Kerry has a sizable lead over President Bush among Hispanic voters nationwide, but both sides could enhance their support among the critical constituency, according to a poll released Sunday.

The presumptive Democratic nominee held a 58 percent to 33 percent lead over Bush among voters who identify themselves as Hispanic in a poll for The Miami Herald. The survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted March 29-31 and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Despite the advantage, strategists say Kerry must hold Bush's support among Hispanic-Americans to less than 35 percent to have a shot of winning the White House in November. Bush narrowly won the presidency in part by taking a sliver of the traditionally Democratic Hispanic base and drawing 35 percent of its vote in 2000.

http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/8356539.htm

Since the poll is so skewed and directly in opposition to every other poll taken in the state so far, it was likely designed to find the results that those who paid for it wanted.

[otohara]

38. Novak Was Bragging About Mason/Dixon Poll

today - thanks for posting this.

[Nicholas_J]

46. Kerry is also ahead in the

Latest ARG poll which also was done later than the Mason Dixon Poll.

If you google on Mason Dixon many of the articles are reports on the questionable nature of the poll.

[Nicholas_J]

30. Actually the latest polls still have Kerry ahead:

Bush 43%
Kerry 49%
Nader 3%

Schroth & Assoc. (D) / Polling Co. (R) 3/3-4/04 3.5%

http://www.stpetetimes.com/2004/03/07/polls_graphics/polls-prez.shtml


Over the years there have been questions about the results of the Mason Dixon Polls. While Schroth and Associates are a rather well known Washingtno D.C. polling firm. This poll runs through the 4th of April, while the Mason Dixon Poll runs through the 1st of April. So in Actuality Kerry is ahead in the LATEST poll:

PLus he is running neck and neck with Bush ( a point ahead) in the latest American Research Poll, whil is also more current than the Mason Dixon Poll, Running through the 4th.

Bush 44% Kerry 45% Nader 4% American Research Group 3/3-4/04 4%

Kerry and Bush Tied Among Likely Voters in Florida

John Kerry and George W. Bush are tied among likely voters in Florida according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 45% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 44% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 4% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 7% of likely voters are undecided.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Florida. Of the 600 likely voters, 41% are Republicans, 44% are Democrats, and 15% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party. The interviews were conducted March 3 and 4, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/fl/

So far, in every poll but one, Kerry has been ahead in Florida, and in polls since the Mason Dixon Poll, is either in a dead heat, or retains a lead over Bush.

35. That Schroth poll you keep quoting is a month old! From March 3/4

I keep seeing you posting this everywhere yet you apparently never looked at it to see it clearly states that it was conducted March 3/4. Will you stop quoting this thing?

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

33. is that a Diebold-proof margin?

hopefully so

[Bombtrack]

40. DIEBOLD is a nationwide, not Florida, issue. The leaders in congress

though on the issue, Graham and Wexler, are both from Florida. If we successfully force paper trails anywhere first, it will be in Florida.

[sangha]

34. But, but but...how can that be?

Kerry was on vacation!!

[RoyGBiv]

37. Mason Dixon Polls

This comment is in reference to a completely different event, but it highlights a problem with the M-D Poll.

"The Mason-Dixon poll is considered to be generally conservative and usually underestimates minority voters. The poll did not disclose its demographics."

More here, but's not relevant:

<http://www.political.com/analysis-arc/0071.html>

M-D polls rarely, in my experience, release their demographic data, or if they do include some rather weird categories. I ended up having to follow them a lot in a different matter, and the data they showed rarely jibed with reality.

[nayt]

41. fl economy doing well?

[ringmastery]

42. relatively well compared to others states

lots of jobs out there...not high-paying though, a lot of retail crap and other low-paying service stuff.

It's hard to compare though, the cost of living here is much cheaper than other parts of the country. You can buy a 3br house in many parts of florda for under $125k.

Latest unemployment numbers for the state was 4.5%.

Here's an article talking about Florida's economy.

http://www.floridatoday.com/!NEWSROOM/localstoryN0405FLORIDAJOBS.htm

[Nicholas_J]

45. Actually yes?

According to polls in which the economy is a factor most Floridians polled consider the economy to be doing well in this state.

The Bush tax cuts had little or no effect on property taxes, and since there are few state run social services, the effects are hardly noticeable to the poor. The job market is doing well compared to other states as well and a lot of major corporations are moving their headquarters to the northers area of the state.

When you aint got nothin' you got nothing to lose.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

44. Kerry needs to run postive ads about himself and his record.. pronto

all we're hearing is negative b.s. about Kerry from BushCo. Just had someone comment to me "I don't know if I can vote for Kerry - I don't like his voting record."

Bush is making him sound like he's a "tax" fiend and "weak on defense." That's all people in Florida are hearing... A lot of people fall for the b.s.

Kerry cannot lose Florida....