WHY DON'T WE KNOW the TX CAUCUS delegates, yet? Here's why.

[PetraPooh]

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/news-desk/2008/03/04/explaining-the-texas-two-step.html


"Those who have voted in the Texas Democratic primary are eligible to take part in a caucus at their precinct location this evening. Those caucuses will choose delegates who will go on to a county/district Democratic convention to be held on March 29. But it's not over after that. Delegates at the county/district convention will choose delegates to go on to a June 6 state convention in Austin. Those delegates will choose how the 67 national delegates are split between the candidates."




Based on delegates that chose to speak to the TX Dem party to date and as an ESTIMATE only, it looks like Obama will be up 3 over Hillary in TX effectively winning the state.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/03/about_those_texas_caucus_resul.php

[ClayZ]

1. Obama effectively winning Texas

I like that!

K and R

[CoffeeCat]

2. it's now Obama 55, Clinton 44, in the Texas caucus...

Looks like he's going to do very well and win more delegates in Texas.

The media all ready declared Hillary the winner, so this should be interesting.

[ClayZ]

5. Thanks, TwoSparkles!

:kick:

[efhmc]

9. Hum, that interesting since there are only 67 delegates

awarded by caucus and those WILL NOT be awarded until June when Texas has its state convention.

[PetraPooh]

14. I think twosparkles meant %'s

[efhmc]

Sorry, I thought he meant caucus delegates.

[PetraPooh]

18. no problem, of all the threads I've started, I had hoped this one would get kr'd

for being informative instead of inflamatory.

[Hawkowl]

82. Done!

Off to the greatest page!

[PetraPooh]

83. THANK YOU, my first one ever!! Yeehaw!

[efhmc]

88. Since I have been trying to explain this process for what seems like

years now, I am happy to give you #6 before I go nighty-night.

[PetraPooh]

91. Thank you, sleep tight!

[ClassWarrior]

3. Yes, but I believe they're pledged delegates. I'm told that we'll know...

...the results by this weekend.

NGU.

[PetraPooh]

6. NOPE! Not till June 6th, please read the OP. We can guess, but

won't know

[efhmc]

4. I have given up trying to explain this on DU and almost given up

berating various media sources that continually give out the wrong information again and again. BTW, no one is obligated to support any candidate and a delegate can change his/her mind every step of the way. Think about that one a while.

[PetraPooh]

7. EXACTLY! Not till June 6th will we know for sure, till then its just a

cluster-guess.

[thevoiceofreason]

8. No - you think about this

It is rare in Texas for dedicated delegates in a two candidate race to change much once they are chosen. The typical way it happens, which is rare too, is when someone gets votes early on but their supporters don;t care enough to go to the senate convention.

I don't see that happening here. Both Barack and Hillary's supporters are dedicated. Assuming both sides' supporters attend the senate conventions, the split being projected now should hold up. In other words, I don't think many Hillary supporters (who were willing to go to senate convention) will be swayed to cross over, AND VISA VERSA.

[efhmc]

11. I wasn't seriously saying this will happen. I am trying AGAIN

to make people understand that the process is far from over and that these are not legally bound delegates.

[CoffeeCat]

16. All of the caucuses are run this way...

...and it is disingenuous to state that "we won't know until June."

We WILL know. We will know as soon as the caucus math is tallied, probably by tomorrow.

Each and every caucus that has all ready happened in the Democratic primary, is run
the way you describe. Delegates are picked. However, the delegates are picked from
each supporters camps.

I am a delegate. I was picked to be a delegate in my precinct. After we caucused, did
the math and determined how many delegates Obama would get (it was 7), we picked 7 "delegates"
to participate in the process. It would be highly unusual, and not likely that a "delegate"
would not cast their vote for the candidate for whom they caucused. I caucused for Obama
and my delegate vote is stuck in cement. I'm not budging!

It would be highly unlikely that a delegate would go against
the candidate they supported--and also how their precinct determined.

These delegates are chosen to represent what went down during the night of the caucus.

I'm in Iowa, and this is how our caucus was run---and so are all of the other caucuses
in this primary. We count those delegates and add them up--and we'll know the results
very shortly.

I don't know why this misinformation is being circulated, but it is a misunderstanding of
the process.

We'll know the Texas caucus results, just as we knew the Iowa, Washington, Nevada, etc caucus
results.

[sandnsea]

19. It started in Nevada

The Clinton people put this out after Nevada to offset the reality that Obama won more delegates. Some people repeat that to continue the distortions, others honestly haven't watched the process enough to know how it generally unfolds. Drives me nuts.

[PetraPooh]

27. Hey, check my posts, I'm totally anti-Hillary, I'm hoping many of hers will come to us.

[PetraPooh]

26. NO WE WON'T, READ DAMMIT

[CoffeeCat]

38. i am a delegate...you are WRONG!

Please, I'm asking you to clear your mind and just think for a bit.

I understand the caucus process because I was a precinct captain in Iowa and I
am a delegate.

To suggest that "we won't know" until the state convention is seated, is just not accurate.

A candidate garners delegates---based on how many people show up to support them in the caucus. Those delegates
are chosen from the candidate's own supporter group. That's how I was chosen.

Delegates do not change their minds or go with the wind. They represent a static number of people
who showed up to caucus for that candidate.

This kind of nonsense has NEVER been perpetuated about the caucuses before.

Is this more propaganda from Hillary--attempting to suggest that Obama really won't get these delegates?

This is absurd.

[PetraPooh]

40. TEXAS IS NOT IOWA, please READ!!!

[CoffeeCat]

42. I did read!!!!!

Please, PetraPooh, you need to calm down for a second.

The Texas process is similar to the process in Iowa and the other caucus states.

The point you are trying to make is that the delegates "won" in these primary
caucuses---are not set in stone. You are saying that we really won't know until
these people cast their votes at the county convention.

Ok, that is true. However, please, please understand----delegates do not switch.
It just does not happen.

Please listen to me---in my precinct, Obama received 7 delegates. Hillary got 4.

So....7 Obama supporters were selected as Obama delegates. 4 people from Hillary's
camp were selected. These are ardent supporters who caucused for that candidate.

This is a technicalities that has NEVER, EVER been an issue. EVER!!!!!

The caucuses have been around before you were born...there has never been some sort
of mutiny! The delegates vote as they are assigned.

Please, please---stop spreading this disinformation. The media sometimes gets it wrong
and they'll often exaggerate interesting tidbits of information to make their stories
more interesting.

Believe me....the pledged delegates will vote as they are assigned. It's happened
that way for decades.

[PetraPooh]

45. No, you didn't read.

The county conventions elect delegates to the STATE CONVENTION (if you read, then how did you miss this important piece of information) then it's decided. So I guess you need to read BETTER. AND I WON'T CALM DOWN. The lack of anyone to read is pissing me off. I intended this to be and informative post, to share what I had learned. Instead it has turned into a flame game of people assuring others of things that cannot be known at this time.

Decades, my arse, since they CAN change their minds, they MIGHT chose to do this. You don't know what might happen between now and then and neither do I. All we know is that right now the ESTIMATED answer is that Obama is slightly ahead overall in TX. I hope it ends up landslide for OBAMA but that is irrelevant to my OP.

[CoffeeCat]

51. You are just stuck on this one point...

...and you are putting exaggerated importance on the fact that the delegates can vote
for the opposite candidate.

However, as I have stated many times....this just does not happen. It doesn't.

The delegates at the county, state and national conventions vote as they have
been assigned.

So yes, these people could change their mind, but a satellite could fall on your head
tonight, as well. Both are highly unlikely and it is unwise to think about a scenario
that just isn't going to happen.

I've paid attention to politics for years, and I've followed the Iowa caucus process
for many, many election cycles. I've never even HEARD of a delegate in Iowa or in
the other caucus states---going against the constituents they represent.

So....we WILL know...just as we know Iowa, Nevada, and the other caucus states.

We'll get a number before Friday. So just sit tight and be happy with that! :hi:

[PetraPooh]

54. Yes, I get stuck on facts, you apparently prefer hope.

[CoffeeCat]

65. oh come on....

I'm telling you that it NEVER happens.

You don't want to listen.

Your article there is written by a reporter who had a very entertaining slant on
the Dem primary. He was spotlighting the quirks and the things that RARELY
happen--such as delegates voting against their own interests.

Why do you want to hang onto the notion that the delegates are going to change their
minds?

Why can't you accept the fact that this is a very rare occurrence, and probably won't even
happen ONCE?

I'm not hoping for anything. I'm telling you how the process is run--based on years of
observation and of my experiences as a delegate and a precinct captain.

[PetraPooh]

73. Read please posts #28, #34, #57 by current TX caucus delegates.

[CoffeeCat]

80. I read, but I'm not worried and you shouldn't be either...

We will get good news about the Texas caucus numbers soon.

Cheers!

:hi:

[Touchdown]

97. This is true. I was a Howard Dean delegate in 2004.

He dropped out before Colorado had our caucus, but out of loyalty to my precinct, I decided to stay with Dean anyway, and "waste" my vote instead of going with Edwards or Kerry. IIRC, Dean was even on my name badge they gave me at the county convention.

[Double T]

10. obama and his supporters manipulate the HELL out the states that have caucuses.........

aren't WE sick and tired of being manipulated by this kind of politician?

[PetraPooh]

12. WTF are you talking about? This is just an explanation thread.

How is anyone manipulating anything?

[efhmc]

13. Again I am recommending that folks go to the Tx. forum and

read how the incidents by both sides were handled (caucus). In the main, things went well and it was, finally, a good day for us Texas Dems.

[anigbrowl]

Sez you.

Yet you never provide any evidence...just whinge about how it's so horribly unfair and so on. Reality: the Clinton campaign never planned a caucus strategy and doesn't have a good ground operation.

[PetraPooh]

31. Exactly, I'm so hope she ends up losing TX by all 67 caucus dels

[Double T]

49. How much evidence would YOU like?

Let the denials begin. If this is Hope and Change I'll stick with HRC's business aa usual ANY DAY!

http://obamasdeckofcards.blogspot.com/2008/02/obamas-voter-manipulation-its-called_23.html

[nebula]

29. Hillary manipulates the HELL out voters with her deceitful SWIFTBOAT tactics

aren't WE sick and tired of being manipulated by this kind of politician?

[Double T]

55. cute.

[rodeodance]

72. ha--your credibility is in the tank!

[CoffeeCat]

33. Massive disinformation and rumor...

I was a precinct captain in an Iowa caucus and things ran very smoothly.

We were very busy, because attendance doubled from 04, which was a record year. However,
the process was very fair, lively and organized.

Furthermore, there was a Precinct Chair, plus media and observers from all camps. They
were there to ensure that the process was fair to all parties.

Everyone had a great time and I did not see any disrespect or unruly behavior, at all. I
talked with several Iowa precinct captains after the process, and everyone said their
precincts ran smoothly--despite long lines to get in and crowded rooms.

I've been pretty active politically, and this is the first year that I have heard these
outlandish criticisms and disparaging remarks about the caucuses. The Hillary camp loved
the caucus process and deemed it "very important" until her polls began sinking in Iowa.
Then we started to hear how unfair a process it was. She hasn't stopped. I think it's
sad. Thousands of people volunteer their time to ensure a fair, clean process, but we
have a sour-grapes politician disparaging the entire process--and convincing the ill-informed
who have never stepped foot in a caucus--that caucuses are inferior or unfair.

This saddens me and I think it is grossly unfair. I've never felt so patriotic and so much
a part of my democracy--as I did during our caucus.

[Double T]

50. Might want to check the record.

Sometimes things are NOT as they seem.

http://obamasdeckofcards.blogspot.com/2008/02/obamas-voter-manipulation-its-called_23.html

[CoffeeCat]

59. I have no problem...

...with Barack Obama encouraging Republicans and Indies to register Dem and caucus
for him. This is pretty much standard procedure in the caucuses.

We had tons of Republicans and Indies in my precinct--who wanted to switch to Dem and participate
that day. And they did. I helped them fill out the forms. Am I evil??? ;)

If states have open primaries like this, and they allow people to switch, what is the big problem?

You are making legitimate processes and practices into some kind of malevolent voo doo.

Obama attracts Republicans and Indies. They need to know how to participate in their state primaries--if
they are registered as Reps or Indies.

Sorry...simply informing people about state election processes is not a big deal.

Geez. The spin around here is dizzying!

[PetraPooh]

63. I'm one of whom you speak. Ex-repub since 2000, seriously voting Obama

[Double T]

69. Aiding and abetting rethugs to undermine the primary election process on election day.

REALITY CHECK: rethugs are NOT going to vote for a Liberal Democrat in the GE. YOU have shot yourself and your party in the foot; make that BOTH feet.

[PetraPooh]

76. I'm voting Obama in the GE also, I haven't been a repub since gwbutthead 2000

[CoffeeCat]

77. A Republican introduced me to Obama...

...and that is how I was introduced to the campaign.

Many, many disenfranchised Republicans really like Obama and they are voting for him.

As a precinct captain for Obama, I attended Obama house parties and listened to the stories
from Obama supporters. Many are Republicans who are very upset with Bush. They are beside
themselves. The Obama house party I attended was like a support group for people who had
been traumatized by the Bush years.

I'm sorry that you are not GETTING that Obama has cross-over appeal. To suggest that Republicans
voting for Obama in the primaries...are all part of some massive conspiracy is deluded and cynical.

[thevoiceofreason]

36. Your candidate has lost. Get used to it.

Many just don't like her -- ok?

[PetraPooh]

39. No one has lost or won till June 6th. Who is "your candidate" in your mind?

[Double T]

53. Many won't like obama after they investigate the truth..........

about his tactics.

http://obamasdeckofcards.blogspot.com/2008/02/obamas-voter-manipulation-its-called_23.html

[donheld]

90. That's a bald faced lie

[sandnsea]

15. That's what they tried to say about Nevada too

No sale. These delegates will vote the way the caucus attendees voted unless there is a definite candidate and all opponents have conceded.

[PetraPooh]

20. Probably, possibly, but no one is obligated to.

[sandnsea]

21. Absofuckinglutely, stop spreading disinformation n/t

[PetraPooh]

24. What disinformation? They CAN CHANGE THEIR VOTE, that's not dis-anything.

Wow, maybe you should change to de-caf.

[0007]

35. Sandnsea has a valid point. And when you can't answer her question

you want to attack her. WHY? PetraPooh you are guilty of spreading disinformation. Please take a toke with the boys and cool your heels.

[PetraPooh]

41. Have you read the OP links or are you just sucking air?

[0007]

43. I have read the links. I think you should re-read them, if your

comprehension skills are up to the task. Then again maybe your just sucking air, 'eh?

[CoffeeCat]

44. Delegates are ASSIGNED SUPPORT...

Delegates go to the county convention, and they participate on behalf of the
people in their caucus. Delegates REPRESENT a number of voters who supported
a certain candidate.

For example, in my precinct---I am one of seven Obama delegates. I represent about 45
Obama supporters.

Delegates do not vote! They stand as representation of a chunk of supporters for a particular
candidate. They don't vote. They agree to represent that chunk of voters in their precinct
and they do not change their minds, as you are suggesting.

I hope you are reading my posts and getting a better grasp on this.

I read the article link. Yes, the reporter mentions that these delegates can switch. However,
it NEVER happens. The reporter was being a bit glib in his story and his article was about
the chaos of the process. You are reading WAYYYYY to much into that one point.

Delegates just do not switch. It is so unlikely....so VERY unlikely and it just rarely, if ever---happens.

I hope that this is making more sense to you.

[PetraPooh]

52. Good Gawd, taTX delegate has confirmed they can change their vote, see #28

[CoffeeCat]

70. Yes, they CAN change, but they NEVER DO!!--

You are behaving like a hysterical Henny Penny!

The sky is not falling, sweetheart.

The pledged Texas delegate numbers will come out before Friday--and when the
convention rolls around they will vote as they have been assigned to vote.

I'm a delegate and I represent not just myself--but about 45 other people in
my precinct who came out and caucused for Obama. Delegates respect and
honor the fact that they represent not just their own interests, but the
interests of many others!

I'm telling you not to worry about something that is will not happen.

The delegates will vote as they are assigned.

[PetraPooh]

78. Please see post #57 by a TX caucus delegate. ENOUGH!

[PetraPooh]

66. Also see TX caucus delegate post #57

[blogslut]

17. Also

AFTER THE CONVENTION:

You have a very important responsibility! As you should have noticed, the Precinct Convention Minutes and the Precinct Convention Sign-in Sheet are carbon copy documents. There should be a white (first page), gold, pink, and blue copy of each form. The blue copies are for you to keep. There are four things you must do:

1. Call in the results of your precinct convention into the toll free results hotline number located on the “Results Hotline” flyer. (The Results Hotline toll-free number is 1-800-336-3248). Each precinct will have a unique access code to identify their precinct. The system is an automated system – simply follow the prompts and punch in the information the system asks you to input (see flyer for the process).

2. You must turn in the packet by Thursday of that week to the local County Democratic Party (via mail or delivery). For people who were elected to be a delegate or alternate, but were not present, you must put adouble asterisk (**) next to their names on the Precinct Convention Sign-in Sheet.

3. Return the gold and pink copies and the voter roll to your County Democratic Party by Thursday of that week (March 7th).

4. Mail the white copies to the State Democratic Party by March 5th.

link: http://www.txdemocrats.org/page/-/2008%20Convention/Precinct%20Convention%20materials/ABC%27s%20of%20Conducting%20Your%20Precinct%20Convention-%20updated%202-28-08%20%282%29.pdf

[PetraPooh]

23. and you think this means what?

[blogslut]

25. The precinct results don't have to be turned in until Thursday

:)

EDIT ADD: There will be results, precinct results. Then there will county convention results and state convention results. The hope is that the results remain true to the will of the delegates elected on the precinct level.

[PetraPooh]

28. And then they don't have to be honored in the other two cycles, so?

[blogslut]

34. They don't have to be honored. This is also true

We just hope they will be honored. They are free to change their intent all the way up to the end of the state convention - maybe even the national (not positive on national).

[efhmc]

57. They can and whole groups of them have done so in the past

when there have been brokered conventions.

[efhmc]

30. Mailed mine this morning and the post in this small town

doesn't go out until 4:30 PM.

[PetraPooh]

32. You're a delegate, please tell me you're voting OB, please.

[efhmc]

47. No, I am the precinct chair who was elected to the next delegate

level(county). At the State Senate District/County Caucuses (March 29th), one delegate will be elected to the State Convention Caucus for every 12 precinct delegates. There is a strict cutoff without rounding, which means that a precinct with 12 precinct delegates (180-194 Chris Bell voters) will send the same number of delegates to the State convention as a precinct with 23 precinct delegates (345-359 Chris Bell voters) - both send 1 delegate, while a precinct with 361 Chris Bell voters would send 2 delegates to the State Convention. Precincts with fewer than 12 precinct delegates will be combined. We have 6 delegates to the county convention. So our precinct will only be sending one delegate to the state convention and we will be combined with another precinct. Weight is given to those under 35, non-white, etc. as the party tries to achieve a representation of all groups. Since I do not fit into any of those groups, I will probably have little chance to be chosen to go to the state convention. Since I voted for Clinton, you probably don't want that anyway.

[PetraPooh]

56. Well, no I wouldn't like that, but I'm sorry nonetheless that you "probably" won't count

Reverse discrimination sucks sometimes. Thank you so much for participating in the democratic process. After reading the complicated post, I am just mind boggled at the bizarre process Texas goes through. Instead of "Texas Two-Step" it should be called the "Texas Cluster..." well you know. Sounds like all the caucus delegates should be credited with their patience and dedication.

[efhmc]

64. As an Edwards supporter (my first and real choice), I see it as

real democracy in action. BTW, I really like Senator Obama and think he is a great candidate.

[PetraPooh]

67. Excellent news. You don't find it overly complicated though?

[efhmc]

81. I've done it before. But before it did not count as the other

State primaries had already decided the presidential nominee before Texans had a chance to vote. Example: Kerry in '04 It was over long before it came time for us to vote. So this election was special and complicated or not, I met a few, new young ex-Republicans who want to come to meetings and volunteer. That is what caucuses do that straight primaries do not.

[PetraPooh]

86. Another excellent point. Thanks for the enlightment.

[BrightKnight]

85. I am a delegate and I'm not voting for Obama - n/t

[PetraPooh]

89. Each to his own. Credit to you for time and dedication.

[blogslut]

37. My precinct chair is supposed to mail ours

I have confidence that he has both mailed the proper forms and made that call to the hotline. He was a Clinton supporter and will be a delegate at the county convention. I was the secretary. :hi:

[efhmc]

48. Our county chair said that we were not obligated to call that hot

line so we didn't. We closed up shop and went home.

[PetraPooh]

58. I read that it was "optional" as well. That's why in the OP I said

of those that CHOSE to report in...

[blogslut]

61. Well, my particular chair said he would call them

No bigs.

[efhmc]

22. You might be interested to know that many of the delegate

sign-in sheets and minutes with the results are still in the mail.

[theboss]

46. In all seriousness, why the fuck is this process so complicated?

Republicans seem to have it right to me. Win the state. Boom. You get the delegates. Move on.

You need a goddamn PhD in Applied Physics just to figure out the delegate count on our side.

[PetraPooh]

60. True enough, I'm not promotin it as "good" just trying to share the facts.

[theboss]

62. I know. I just don't understand why we can't just have an election without involving calculus

And as an Obama supporter, I recognize that my idea would probably swing the advantage to Hillary. But these never-ending string of 48-46 delegate splits lead to madness.

Madness, I tell you!

[PetraPooh]

68. For me, madness is a short leap, so no sympathy on that point. LOL

[efhmc]

71. Seems easier but much less representative of the people.

This is the first time in about 20 years, that Texas has had a voice in selecting the Democratic candidate and we are loving getting a choice.

[theboss]

74. The contest would probably still be going if the states were winner take all

Any race this close is going to last a while.

But you could actually score a definitive knock-out at one point.

Our system seems to be designed for a three or four-person race. Once it reaches two people, it becomes like the card game War.

[PetraPooh]

79. Good point. Enjoy!

[BrightKnight]

93. A caucus does not represent the will of the people!

The people voted if they could find the time and went home to have dinner with their families. Only a small minority of political zealots went to the caucus.

The will of the people was in the ballots if they were counted properly.

--
The caucus might be sold as necessary evil for the sake of Party building. I did not see much Party building. Nobody from the State or County gave any kind of appeal for support.

I suspect that a large percentage of the Clinton supporters will be less likely to go to another caucus.

[PetraPooh]

94. I don't see a problem with giving "political zealots" a stronger voice because

this is one way their dedication to politics and to the party can be rewarded. It would seem to me, as well, that the political zealots would be more likely to be generally informed and less likely to be voting per propaganda.

[Vincardog]

75. That is so the political insiders can manipulate the results as needed.

[efhmc]

84. The people involved in these caucuses are about as far from

insiders as one can get and they are not going to be manipulated.

[PetraPooh]

87. I trust you on this, but if the delegates are listed and recorded at HQ

it is possible, right? I'd be interested in hearing whether anyone attempts to contact you between now and then.

[blogslut]

95. Stop being so worried

Look, my precinct elected 4 delegates for Barack Obama. I was precinct secretary and I have every confidence that those four elected fully support Barack. I am confident our delegate chair supports Barack. If I wasn't sure, I would have spoken out during the delegate election. Barack supporters chose delegates. Clinton supporters chose delegates.

Relax.

[PetraPooh]

96. Yeah, unfortunately everyone I have ever supported in an election,

got screwed out of being elected, so I am worried. I wish I wasn't such a bad luck charm for those I support.

[Vincardog]

92. I am an election judge. I was a caucus goer. I am a delegate to the County

Convention. I am not talking about you or me brother/sister. I have been to the state convention ans seen the insiders manipulate the rules and process. Don't get holy on me and pretend that Texans do not know how to do dirty politics. BTW LBJ was a drunk wife beater.

[Lisa0825]

98. I am an Obama delegate.

and I will NOT change my vote. I was a Dean delegate even when he no longer had a chance, because we wanted our voices heard. The only way most would change our votes would be if the candidate drops out and asks us to support another. I promised the people in my caucus that my vote would represent them. I will not go back on that promise. Most delegates I have known for any candidate feel very strongly about keeping our word.