Obama Ahead in TX Caucuses 56% to 44%, Will Win 98 Delegates to Hil's 95, So WINS TEXAS!!

[Dems Will Win]

Sorry, Hil fans, but just like Dewey did not defeat Truman, Clinton did not defeat Obama last night in TX, as it is a HYBRID Primary-Caucus system. Looks like the media called this one a little too early.

With 40% in on the caucus, it's Obama 56%, Hil 44%, which would work out to a 37-30 delegate split for the Big O. In the Primary, Hil won 65 delegates to Obama's 61.

The Primary gave Hil 3 to 4 more delegates than Obama, but now his 7 Caucus points gives him TX by 3-4 delegates!

So Hillary technically only won 2 contests last night, and as Bill Clinton said, she had to take Texas.

She did not.

Home > Postcards > Archives > 2008 > March > 05 > Entry

Obama could top Clinton by 3
By Mike Ward | Wednesday, March 5, 2008, 03:55 PM

With all the back-and-forth over the delegates gained by Obama and Clinton in yesterday’s Texas primary, this word is just in from state Democratic officials.

Obama could pick up a net gain of three delegates, after all the dust settles.

Here’s how Dem officials say that’s possible:

Clinton won the popular vote, and could pick up as many as four delegates from that.

Obama appears to be winning the caucus voting on delegates, and could pick up as many as seven delegates there.

If that holds true, Obama would end up with three more Texas delegates than Clinton.

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2008/03/05/obama_gain_3_more_delegates.html

Scroll down to watch the caucus results roll SLOOOOWLY in.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX

Seems to be taking forever but Obama is currently up 12%.

If this continues, it would end up Clinton 95, Obama 98. Do the math.

Obama wins, as it was a hybrid contest. Tune in tomorrow!

[rug]

1. Ok, put that in a sound bite.

[JackORoses]

5. in your world, it didn't happen if it's not in a sound byte?

what tunnel vision you must have.

[rug]

8. Ok, in your world, make inspiring oratory of that tortured headline.

[rockymountaindem]

12. Obama stages unexpected resurgence in second phase of Texas vote

How's that?

[rug]

16. Fair, but "unexpected resurgence" is stilted.

[TheDoorbellRang]

109. Howsabout "Clinton Stumbles in Texas Two-Step"

or "Obama Waltzes Ahead in Texas Two-Step"

:D

[JackORoses]

25. "Obama wins Texas in Overtime!!! Don't call it a Comeback, he's been here for years!"

How about that for a headline?

[jenmito]

50. Those who don't know old rap won't get it.

:D

[JackORoses]

53. if one soul catches a giggle, it is worth it

;)

[jenmito]

62. Then it was worth it.

:hi:

[Not the Only One]

73. old rap?

LL Cool J is old rap? And that song wasn't even from the 80s!

[jenmito]

77. I was a freshman in high school. Now I'm almost 41.

:shrug:

[U4ikLefty]

96. LL Cool J released that song in 1990

So you were 18 yrs old & a freshman in HS?

I'm sorry.

[jenmito]

102. Guess I got my songs confused. I know in '81 I had a poster of him but the title

should've told me it was a later hit of his. No. I wqas 14. But your math is wrong. If the song came out in '90 and I told you I'm 40 now and was a freshman in HS when the song came out, that would make me 22 as a freshman in HS, not 18. I'm sorry.

[U4ikLefty]

111. Oops, I switched the 18 & 22 in my head...honest mistake. They add up to 40.

My math is great when it counts. Not on mesage-board talking of half-assed hip-hop artists such as LL Cool J.

...but my point still stands. I'm sorry.

BTW, he released his first commercial song in 1985. So I don't know where you got his poster in 1981.

Again, I'm sorry.

[Zhade]

89. Mama said knock her out?

:p

[thevoiceofreason]

37. Let me give it a whirl:

Obama Wins Texas: Marks Victory in Improbable 45 Day Climb From 22 Points Down. Comeback Sparks Memories of Buffalo Bills Versus Houston Oilers.

[rug]

Won't fit.

Good try though.

[Stephanie]

15. Clinton's Claim of Victory Premature; Obama Takes Texas

Reminds me of Florida 2000. She wins, if you don't actually count all the votes.

[rug]

19. Better phrasing but still inaccurate.

[Stephanie]

29. How is it innacurate?

Unless you mean that they're not done tallying yet.

[rug]

40. 2,500,000 voters vs 100,000 causus goers does not equal an Obama win.

[Dems Will Win]

57. Oh yes it do!

[rug]

63. Your math is as good as your grammar.

[PITBOS]

82. and as good as your knowledge of politics. Just stop the

liar HRC.

[cali]

108. I just heard on NPR that 1 million attended caucuses

that doesn't sound like it could possibly be right.

[DemzRock]

Speaking of Florida, can we count Hill's victory there NOW? (touche!)

[Zhade]

90. Since that would be changing the rules mid-contest, aka cheating - NO.

So sorry.

Nah, I'm really not. I'm enjoying watching "the anointed one" lose.

[DemzRock]

69. Speaking of Florida, can we count Hill's victory there NOW? (touche!)

[ClayZ]

22. No business, like show business!

[jenmito]

45. "Texas two-step pulls Hillary one step back from victory"

[Divernan]

59. Love that Texas Two Step!

[jenmito]

71. I love the results of it!

:hi:

[blogslut]

75. How's this

Obama's Two-Step Turnaround

:D

[gristy]

2. damn straight

Nice pic

[Hawkeye-X]

6. How 'bout this one?

[Dems Will Win]

60. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!!

[Hawkeye-X]

3. The Hillarites are bitching about it -- claiming about March 29th caucus

to validate their caucus from yesterday... If the Clintonites couldn't even be *BOTHERED* to come to yesterday's caucus for the other 1/3rd, then Clinton doesn't really deserve the delegates from Texas. The hybrid system works well when it needs to work.

[pbca]

10. The Hillary people did, the Limbaugh people didn't show though n/t

[rosetta627]

4. Good info, thanks

So she only took about 6 or 7 delegates yesterday?
After all that confetti?

[Dems Will Win]

7. The official count for the primary was 65-61, so only + 4 for Clinton

It would end up Clinton 95, Obama 98.

Obama wins, as it was a hybrid contest

[cottonseed]

9. 100 pounds of confetti per delegate.

It did seem like a grand celebration on the teevee.

[rosetta627]

14. :) Not a good confetti/delegate ratio

She sure doesn't do well in caucuses.

[Zhade]

91. She was "catapulting the propaganda", as they say.

Trying to fool people into thinking she's winning when she's still losing.

In other words, another lie from her.

[Dems Will Win]

66. Actually she won 7 in OH and RI and VT canceled each other, so she netted 4 delegates on March 4th

TOTAL. 4. As in FOUR.

And she only won 2 contests not 3.

[rosetta627]

81. FOUR?!!!!

Holy confetti.

[JackORoses]

11. Obama pities the poor fool who messes with Texas!!!

[BeatleBoot]

13. Neither can win without Super Delegates now

[JackORoses]

51. and the Superdelegates will go to the Pledged Delegate leader

Game Over. Obama wins.

[Cachonda]

17. USA Today editorial: caucuses are "no way to choose a candidate"

USA Today, 2-11-08

* Turnout is much lower at caucuses than at primaries. The caucuses in Washington state on Saturday drew fewer than 50,000 people. That's about 1.3% of the state's registered voters.

This isn't just a Washington phenomenon. In the more than 20 Super Tuesday contests, average turnout at caucuses was only about 6% of eligible voters, while primaries averaged about 29%, nearly five times as many, according to the U.S. Elections Project at George Mason University.

* Caucuses disenfranchise some voters. Attending a caucus can be prohibitively difficult. Caucuses are typically held for a limited time on a specific day — an hour or two on a Thursday evening in Iowa, for example. Though some states make provisions for those who can't show up, caucuses usually exclude people who are working, out of town or serving in the military overseas. By contrast, primaries allow voting from early morning until the evening, and provide ample opportunities for absentee ballots.

* Caucuses violate the tradition of the secret ballot. Though some caucuses allow a private ballot, others require participants to publicly "vote" — by standing in a designated part of the room in Iowa's caucuses, for example. For anyone worried about pressure or retribution from spouses, friends or colleagues — or, more ominously, from bosses or government officials — it's a significant disincentive. Former president Bill Clinton claimed he witnessed union officials pressuring workers before Nevada's caucuses last month, threatening to change their work schedules so they couldn't attend the caucuses unless they promised to vote for Barack Obama.

http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2008/02/our-view-on-pre.html

[Cha]

28. Too bad.. ya'll can't change the

rules in midstream, ain't it? That would go along so well with hilary's cheating methods.

[ada chupitos perez]

52. Who is saying caucuses shouldn't be counted this time?

Nobody said that. Only pointing out the fact that Obama wins the least Democratic contests.

By the way, you guys love to change rules too. (superdelegates) in the middle of the game.

[KaptBunnyPants]

34. Then maybe you should eliminate caucuses next time instead of bitching about the rules you agreed to

nm

[msallied]

38. Of course they feel that way NOW

It's a process that has been in use for a looooong time and was embraced by Clinton until she was learning that her supporters weren't attending them. If she were winning in them, a Caucus would be lovely, just as Obama supporters are thankful for them.

Why not just everyone embrace the caucus as undemocratic from the get-go? Because they are. And they are annoying as hell. I attended mine in Washington state, and it took two hours of bickering in my precinct for us to split right down the middle for Obama and Clinton. But as we can see, each process benefits each candidate in a specific way. So it keeps things interesting, at least. lol

[Divernan]

68. Lil Cachonda just got TOMB STONED ! ! ! !

Looks like the Clinton office is registering their trolls big time today, and they're under instructino to start disrupting immediately. I alerted on one who was 2 hours old on DU and tried to high jack my thread with a totally unrelated attack on Obama. Thankfully the mods deleted him.

[BeyondGeography]

18. "The Obama people did their homework."

From a caucus site in Houston:

==Most caucusgoers remained collegial, but Kathy DeLange, 64, a retired school psychologist and Obama supporter who was carrying a large poster with a red, white, and blue print of Obama's face, said tensions ran a bit high when voters had to wait in line to get into the caucus. She said some Clinton supporters were chiding her for her support of Obama. The Clinton supporters, however, were outnumbered at this polling station.

The mood was generally positive, but as caucusing continued late into the evening, some became visibly irritated with the process. Gary Chamness, a breast cancer researcher and Clinton supporter, introduced a resolution to get rid of the caucus system in Texas because Texas gets "the worst of both systems.... Most of the people here have no idea what this is all about," says Chamness.

The final caucus tally at the District 40 polling place reflected the imbalance: In unofficial results, Obama received 227 pledges of support; Clinton, 98. In terms of delegates, that means Obama could send 30 delegates compared with Clinton's 13 to the county and district conventions on March 29.

The primary there, however, was a whole other story. In that contest, Obama won only by a hair. He received 315 votes to Clinton's 290. Fred Hofheinz, the two-time Democratic mayor of Houston, presided over the caucus, though he did not endorse either candidate.

"The Obama people did their homework. They knew what was going to happen, so they were prepared. In a complex election system, you have to train for it." If the rest of the state's caucuses go the same way, Hofheinz says, it could tip the state toward Obama.==

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/campaign-2008/2008/03/05/eager-texans-wait-hours-to-caucus-for-obama-and-clinton.html

[rainbow4321]

72. I know at my TX caucus site the HRC people seemed kinda clueless

Our group of 90 organized quickly, asked for volunteers for 12 delegates, 12 alternative delegates, got the group to OK the delegates and did some resolutions. As we were leaving the HRC group of 30 were still huddled trying to figure out the delegate/alt. delegate thing and other stuff. Our Obama group was like "uh, later, bye" and out the door--after a 2 hour delay in the voting polls closing/caucus starting we were all a little fried and ready to leave...many in the group had waited 1.5 to 2 hours in line JUST to do the primary voting..thanks to the county repukes to short changed us on machines!

[Zhade]

92. Fine, Chamness - NEXT TIME. You don't get to change the rules NOW to favor your losing candidate.

That would be cheating.

[Cha]

20. Pesky Texas Caucuses!

And we had so many Obama DUer supporters on the ground who helped us immeasurably!! :loveya: :patriot: :bounce:

[F.Gordon]

21. 10,000 beats 100,000

What a country!
:patriot:

[thewiseguy]

26. 10,000 are the number of delegates,

Try to study your stuff before you come here and sound like a total ...

[F.Gordon]

49. ..

:spray:

Sorry. My bad. I certinlly tri to lurn mi stuf nek tyme
:rofl:

Look busy everyone... Brother Justin is in da' house.
:scared:

[joshcryer]

86. It's probably close to that number, though, caucuses with record turnouts are only pulling 2% of...

...the voter population. It's dispicible.

Washington had 30k people decide for the whole state. We'll have real numbers soon.

[ctaylors6]

23. I think TX caucus overriding TX primary votes is like super delegates overriding pledged delegates

And I voted and caucused in TX yesterday. IMHO the caucus process is undemocratic and, frankly, nonsensical. Why give the people of TX days and days of early voting & have polls open 7am-7pm on election day then hold caucuses that have pretty much the same voters but only a small fraction of them? I'm sorry I'm struggling for it to make sense to me.
The only rationale I've heard for the caucuses is that the true party faithful are the ones who caucus and are best suited to determine the result at the state's convention.
How is that different that the super delegates on a national scale?

Sorry for the mini-rant. I honestly am not that invested in the 2 remaining candidates (mine dropped out what seems like years ago).

[KaptBunnyPants]

30. It would be if every citizen of the US was a superdelegate.

Every citizen in Texas can choose to be a caucus voter. It's not undemocratic just because your side is lazy.

[NMMatt]

33. Exactly

It measures the strength of support.

[Blue_Roses]

67. exactly!

well said!

[ctaylors6]

48. It's not just lazy. That's probably some. My friend couldn't go cause her son was too sick.

There's such a small window of time. Yes, you have to have the dedication, and I very much appreciate those dedicated souls. But you can care an awful lot about voting but not being able to be at a place within a 1-2 hour time period. Some people were still caucuses past midnight. It especially doesn't make sense to me in TX where all of us at the caucus had already voted.

[KaptBunnyPants]

78. And I couldn't vote because of a mixup with my voter registration (recently moved).

Both sides have to deal with issues like that. The comparison is between superdelegates and caucus goers. I could have been a caucus goer, if my registration had gone through the first time. I cannot be a superdelegate, because I do not have elite status within the Party. I think voting should be as easy as possible, and if someone wanted to eliminate the caucus in future contests, I'd be open to it. But comparing that to the superdelegate system, which was created to undermine Democracy, is specious at best. Caucuses are open to all who choose to attend. Superdelegates are chosen from a pool of the Party elite, and inevitably rich and powerful.

[Zhade]

93. That IS fucked up.

But then, so is this entire country - this whole thing is a carnival sideshow!

(I'm glad to see Clinton still losing, though.)

[MindMatter]

64. Moreover, it is the rule

Obama is winning according to the rules. Every time we turn around we see the Clinton camp whining about the unfair system and threatening to sue. All we're asking is for both candidates to play by the rules and we'll see who ends out the winner.

Superdelegtes are also the rule. Seems like a dumb rule to have so many superdelegates, but that is the system. Everybody knew the rules going in. The superdelegates are under enormous pressure to not reverse a popular choice, and we, the public, have every right to crank up the pressure on them to do the right thing and let the people's voice stand.

Right abut now, the bitter reality should be setting in with the Clinton camp. They needed a knockout last night and didn't lay a glove on Obama. There is now no possible way for them to get the nomination except by breaking the rules (seating FL and MI) or by winning over a huge batch of superdelegates. It is now a desperate campaign.

[ctaylors6]

85. I don't think any rules should be changed mid-stream either.

In fact, I think Obama's campaign has cleverly taken advantage of smaller states and/or caucus states to optimize his delegate count.

My point about the super delegates is this: From what I understand, TX's 67 caucus delegates (25 of whom are party leaders, mayors, legislators) go from the precinct, county, and district levels and normally stick with what happened on caucus night but don't have to. Maybe even though I'm here in TX I still don't understand the process well enough, but there seems leeway in this process that's not there for the delegates pledged from regular primary votes.

I do want to make clear I wasn't spinning that Obama's caucus successes here weren't "valid" or that I think it "shouldn't count." I just see a lot of wiggle room in those 67 caucus-generated delegates that seemed similar to super-delegates to me. That combined with the caucus process simply annoys me. If I were in charge, I would change TX's system -- I'm sorry if others think caucuses are better ways to pick a president than voting in a primary, but I still think it's nonsensical.
But then again, I think the popular vote makes more sense than electoral votes.

[MindMatter]

105. I don't get the combines election-caucus system

Clearly that was a compromise. It makes no sense to have both.

I do think that the weighted electors based on turnout the past cycle is brilliant. It gives voters an incentive to participate every time. Every state should consider that twist.

[NMMatt]

31. Blame Bill Clinton who devised this scheme -nt

[juajen]

97. Says who, and when; and, if so, why didn't Hillary know about it.

NT

[thewiseguy]

32. Caucusing is for everyone, only a selected few become superdelegates

Spinning like a wheel there!

[joshcryer]

88. Caucusing is for everyone, eh?

How about people who can't go?

[ClayZ]

24. Let's she how she spins tomorrow!

Trifecta, my foot!

[ExFreeper4Obama]

27. After all that celebration Clinton will net paltry 5-10 delegates for the whole night

:rofl:

[Sir Jeffrey]

35. Obama wins TX...

so when do Bill and James Carville go to Hillary and tell her to drop out?

[Dems Will Win]

39. There is no doubt, if the caucus 12% lead holds up, Obama has WON TEXAS

You're right Bill said she had to and she did not. Actually she had to take TX and OH by 65% to have a chance.

She is a miserable failure.

[Sir Jeffrey]

42. Hmmm...

At this point, she is officially our slightly more successful, slightly less gracious Mike Huckabee.

[FrenchieCat]

36. They called it early on purpose.

What else is new?

[usregimechange]

41. Yeah baby! We did win afterall!

[Dems Will Win]

43. There's no other way to put it - it was a hybrid contest :primary AND caucus.,

[Az_lefty]

44. so I guess he doesn't have to take the VP slot after all....

GoBama! Thank you Texas!!!!

[rosetta627]

46. No way should he play second fiddle to [her]

No fuckin' way.
He's superior to her in every way:
Intellect, rhetorical skills, integrity,...

Besides, he's winning.

On edit: Removed offensive name referring to Hillary (but I'm still thinking it).

[Name removed]

55. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[rosetta627]

58. Oops, I apologize. I'll edit it. Definitely got carried away.

eot

[ada chupitos perez]

61. thanks n/t

[rosetta627]

65. Really sorry. I'm getting rather crazed.

Thank you for calling me on it.

[Divernan]

76. Don't sweat it Rosetta, "Witch" is OK. But not the "B" word.

The Clintonistas have gotten by with calling Senator Obama a pathological liar and sociopath on DU threads within the last week. Note that the person complaining just joined DU today, along with a whole slew of others. Usually newcomers don't post right away - and they certainly don't take it upon themselves to overbroadly and quite subjectively interpret the rules.

[rosetta627]

80. Thanks Divernan. I do need to chill a bit though.

Gotta pace myself for the long, getting longer, campaign season.

[Zhade]

94. I admire your attitude. : )

NT!

[Window]

47. K/R.

[aaroh]

54. Hooray Hooray Hooray!

[rodeodance]

56. NO matter--am papers across America and Eve news said Hillary takes 3 states. haha

[PITBOS]

79. yeah - I think winning delegates counts a wee bit in the real world

[DURHAM D]

70. I don't understand - I heard Maura Liasson on NPR (of FOX News)

announce on the radio about 5:00 pm today that Obama won the caucuses by a 2 to 1 margin.

You don't suppose she was lying?

[Dems Will Win]

74. Those were earlier numbers. Current is 56-44 Obama

[DURHAM D]

83. No - the numbers were exactly 56-44 when she said it.

She was lying.

[rosetta627]

84. As you said...

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2008/03/05/obama_gain_3_more_delegates.html
"Obama could top Clinton by 3

By Mike Ward | Wednesday, March 5, 2008, 03:55 PM

With all the back-and-forth over the delegates gained by Obama and Clinton in yesterday’s Texas primary, this word is just in from state Democratic officials.

Obama could pick up a net gain of three delegates, after all the dust settles.

Here’s how Dem officials say that’s possible:

Clinton won the popular vote, and could pick up as many as four delegates from that.

Obama appears to be winning the caucus voting on delegates, and could pick up as many as seven delegates there.

If that holds true, Obama would end up with three more Texas delegates than Clinton.

But we’re staying tuned for the final results, whenever they come out."

[rosetta627]

87. More math

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/05/obama-camp-clinton-picks_n_90141.html

"Obama Camp: Clinton Picks Up Only Four Delegates
...
Sen. Barack Obama's campaign is claiming that after rival Hillary Clinton's three primary election wins Tuesday night, her campaign has picked up an inconsequential net gain of only four delegates in the race to win the Democratic nomination.

That would leave Obama with a lead of more than 130 delegates, a gap that the Illinois senator's campaign says is virtually impossible for Clinton to close no matter the outcome of the remaining Democratic primaries and caucuses.
...
Plouffe's numbers have not been confirmed by any other news source. But other media outlets tracking the delegate count have come up with similar, albeit larger, tallies, calculating Clinton's net gain to be between six and eight.
...
According to NBC news, Obama now has 1,355 delegates compared to Clinton's 1,212 -- a difference of 143. CNN, meanwhile, put the margin at 1,321 for Obama, 1,186 for Clinton, a difference of 135."

[Colobo]

95. So Obama wins TX? Gobama! :)

[Dems Will Win]

98. Yup 98-95, give or take a delegate.

He might actually take 9 plus in the caucus so that would be taking the state 100 to 93 then.

Obama would win TX by 7, if he gets to 59%. Which is actually possible because HOUSTON IS STILL NOT IN!

[Khaotic]

99. Obama Nets Dels in TX and ...

Hillary's Supers are running away.



I guess Hillary and her supporters can find something else in common w/ the Bush administration.

They both hate Math and Science.

[Dems Will Win]

100. I prefer real math to fuzzy math

[Dems Will Win]

101. Like 98 > 95

[npincus]

103. LOL- "Dewey Defeats Truman"

[Dems Will Win]

104. Yup 98-95, give or take a delegate.

[Dems Will Win]

106. kick

[jenmito]

107. Kick. If TX is considered a "prima-caucus," why is Hill still considered the winner of the primary

and the caucus be separated from the total? Because that IS how they're framing it-as Hillary winning the TX primary...regardless of the outcome of the caucus.

[Dems Will Win]

110. kick