+136 +97 +582,718

[scheming daemons]

That's Obama's lead in

Pledged delegates (1344 to 1208)

Pledged+Super delegates (1546 to 1449)

Popular vote (12,946,615 to 12,363,897)


The popular vote doesn't include MI and FL.... because there are only two possibilities for those two states now: A) They hold a new primary/caucus...thus invalidating the numbers from their faux ones or B) They are not seated, and thus are not part of the contest


There are 352 superdelegates still uncommitted, and 611 delegates left in the upcoming contests and 90 delegates from previous contests that havent been allocated yet... a total of 1053 available delegates left.

Obama needs to garner 479 of those delegates to get the nomination (45.5%)
Hillary needs to garner 576 of those delegates to get the nomination (54.7%)


Assume the remaining supers split evenly (an optimistic assumption for Clinton, since she has been hemorraging supers for a month).... that puts Obama 1722 and Clinton at 1625..... NOW, Obama only needs 303 of the 701 unpledged delegates (43.2%).


I think it's pretty safe to say that Obama will pull in 43.2% of the delegates in the remaining 12 contests, since he's heavily favored in 5 of them, and slightly favored in 3 others.

Can Hillary get 57% of the remaining delegates in the 12 contests? She has only surpassed 57% in the vote in three contests to date.


It just isn't happening, Hillary fans.... unless Obama gets caught having sex with a goat and drops out.



Hillary is Mondale.... Obama is Hart.... Only this time, there's no "Monkey Business" sex scandal to derail Obama like there was for Hart.

But if Hillary somehow DOES "get lucky" and some scandal knocks Obama from the race and gives her the nomination.... she will suffer the same fate as Mondale... a blowout loss of historic proportions.

Mondale used the "red phone" against Hart.... and that same theme came back to bite him against Reagan. Hillary's "3AM" ad will be used by McCain against HER just as effectively.

[weezy2736]

1. HRC dosn't deal with mathematics,

she deals with miracles.

[DJ13]

4. HRC dosn't deal with mathematics

Thats obvious.

She still cant do her taxes.

[Bok_Tukalo]

2. No amount of math can negate the issue

The Supers will decide. And they are not bound to anything.

[not_too_L8]

3. Thanks...K&R

[ScottS]

5. This is why I switched from Hillary to Obama. We need to unify behind our candidate.

[ginnyinWI]

6. thanks for putting this post together

It's nice to have it all in one spot. And it's very encouraging!