Barack Obama is still ahead pledged dels by 156 and that doesn't

[PetraPooh]

count the Texas caucuses yet. This is a great little counter to play with. I'm hoping that that Super Delegates realize that the only reason Hillary won Texas and perhaps Ohio last night was because of the Repubs that voted for her to give McCain and easier ride.

Note the 156 is the already pledged portion of the calculator. But again, I repeat the Texas portion is based on the primary %'s only without the caucuses so the #'s are skewed in Hillary's favor a tad at the moment.

http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

[Dawgs]

1. 156 doesn't include March 4th, but I still like how the numbers come out.

For instance, I gave Hillary 60/40 wins in the states she should win (PA, Guam, WV, KY, PR). I also gave a 50/50 split to states were Obama should have a small advantage (IN, Montana, SD). Then I gave Obama 54/46 wins in states were he should win (WY, MS, NC, OR).

Even with these very conservative numbers Hillary still only gets as close as 94.

[PetraPooh]

2. Actually I think it does, because the 3/4 States are dimmed and

not manipulatable anymore, but I could be wrong.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

3. Proves my point I was making yesterday.

It's incredibly difficult to make up a delegate deficit.

There's no realistic chance Clinton can beat Obama in delegates.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

4. Funny. I'd Swear More Repubs Voted For Him Last Night?

Facts. Matter.

[Mass]

5. In fact, she had a lot more Repubs voting for her that normally, answering to Rush's orders.

[CitizenRob]

6. Actually she won texas fairly.

It may have given her a boost, but at only 9% of Dem ballots voted on by republicans, that means that only 4% (47% of the 9%) went to Hillary. Hillary won the vote C:51% to O:48%. That puts them within 3%-age points of each other. I personally find it hard to believe that any Republican would vote for Hillary, so perhaps it is possible that Hillary won because of the Limbaugh effect. It really is one of those things we'll never know. Too bad the exit poll didn't ask.

[PetraPooh]

9. She hasn't won it yet, the caucuses aren't in; and won't be till 6/6/08

[backscatter712]

7. Just played with Slate's delegate calculator.

Clinton still has a very, very steep cliff to climb.

Even if she wins every contest left 60-40, she'll still be behind on the delegate count.

And she's not going to perform that well. Not by a longshot.

[Divernan]

8. Here's what happened at 2 TX precinct caucuses, favoring Obama.

This is an email I got from my Texas cousin early this morning. Bottom line, Only one Clinton voter stuck around for one precinct caucus; evidently NO Clinton people stayed for the second precinct.

I went to my caucus tonight, and my precinct (just one small part of Collin County) went 60% to 40% for Obama. The other precinct having its caucus there went 3 to 1 for Obama! The interesting thing was that there was an Obama campaign guy there (he looked like Ron Howard from Happy Days - when he was about 20!), and as we were standing in line to vote in the school gym (after being outside for an hour to wait for the last of the voters to finish voting, which took until 8:00 p.m., because apparently there was a huge line of last-minute voters at 7:00 p.m.!), this guy went around asking everyone to stick around to make sure we would have enough delegates to the county convention.

So after we all signed and registered either for Obama or Clinton, a bunch of us stayed and chatted, and waited for the vote count. There were about 240 votes to count in our precinct, and about the same number in the other precinct, so it took a while. Once the numbers were announced, the Election Chair asked us to divide into two groups, and in our precinct, only 1 of the Clinton supporters was still there, but there were 27 Obama supporters still there (and everyone else from the other precinct who stayed seemed to be Obama people as well).

Our precinct gets 28 delegates to the Collin County Convention (then they pick delegates to go the State Convention in June, then the State delegates pick the National delegates), so with a 60/40 split, 17 of us had to sign up to be Obama delegates (with the same number allowed as alternates) and there were supposed to be 11 Clinton delegates (and 11 alternates). We had 17 people who readily agreed to be the Obama delegates, and the other 10 of us signed up as alternates (I signed last as alternate #10; it's 8 hours on March 30th, which is too long of a day for me as a single parent, although it would have been interesting!).

So my question is, since one of the websites said that the caucus system rewards the grassroots organizers (like the Obama guy at our caucus) who get the people to stay and agree to be delegates, does Clinton only get one delegate from our precinct, and none from the other precinct? That's what I'm guessing/hoping!

[Barack_America]

10. That's a very astute point. Caucuses favor the candidate with the strongest grassroots...

which, in this election, has been Obama hands down.

Thanks for your report!

[DrFunkenstein]

11. Even If Clinton Wins 60% of Every State and 64% of Pennsylvania...She Still Loses

No wonder she's talking about a dream ticket.

[PetraPooh]

12. Eaactly and we won't know if she "really" won TX till 6/6/08