Texas: Deadheat in Today's Voting + 13% Obama lead in Early Voting = OBAMA WINS!

[JackORoses]

Early Vote Totals (real numbers)
OBAMA 56% 484,538 CLINTON 43% 367,632

I have seen several Exit polls showing a too close to call race in Today's voting.
Estimates for total voters is just over 3 million. That puts the Early voting at a little less than a third of the total votes.
Divide that 13 by 3 and Obama ends up with roughly 4-5% cushion.
Hillary would have to beat him by 5% in today's votes just to tie.

Obama will win the Primary and the Caucus.

This terrible battle is finally going to end.

Is that the Sky opening?

;)

[loveangelc]

1. houston and austin still aren't reporting, dallas just started.

[NJSecularist]

3. Very true. But El Paso hasn't reported yet...

A Hillary stronghold.

I think this will be much closer than it is showing right now..

[thewiseguy]

8. None of Obama's strongholds have really reported yet either

If Obama is going to have a commanding lead among early voters then he is going to take Texas. Look at the exit polls.

[ingac70]

5. ...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#TXDEMMAPprimary

[krawhitham]

2. He will lose Ohio

which will keep HRC going past today

[Johnny__Motown]

7. Goal posts moved, that's right. What does Bill Clinton know? Not when the wife will clue in

[earthlover]

10. Let's see how the delegates shape up....

Let's assume that Hillary wins Ohio 52/48 and let's give RI to Hillary 53/47 and let's go out on a limb and give Texas also to Hillary by 54/46. And assume that Hillary gets 54% of the delegates too. Generous to Hillary at this point.

This means...check this out on the calculator....that even if Hillary wins each and every remaining primary with 61% of the vote....she STILL won't tie Obama in the pledged delegates.

Keep in mind some of the states are easy for Obama.

It is virtually impossible for Hillary to win the pledged delegates.

http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

Use your own scenarios....Hillary needs smoke filled rooms to win.

What Obama needs to do starting tomorrow is totally ignore Hillary. Campaign against McCain, period. Don't even mention Hillary. Take it to McCain.

[loveangelc]

11. someone in the clinton campaign said that ohio may not be enough.

not necessarily for hillary but for some in her campaign...

[Renew Deal]

4. If the exits are right...

I think this is correct. The black and latino exits are wrong overall. The blacks voted earlier.

[JackORoses]

6. "The blacks voted earlier." That is the conclusion that I drew as well.

18% is a ridiculously low number

That would mean that proportionally more Blacks voted for Kerry than Obama. No Way, No how

[sandnsea]

9. Oh oh oh

Of course. Thanks. I was completely baffled by the Texas exit polls. Makes perfect sense.

[Lucinda]

12. Where are your number from? They are different than the TX SOS early vote page

http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/enr/mar04_136_state.htm

[JackORoses]

16. They were the Live Vote Count at 0% on MSNBC and others

[Lucinda]

18. Thanks. I've been looking at CNN, NYT and the TX SOS - didn't see MSNBC numbers

[Thepricebreaker]

13. MSNBC: Inside the Hillary campaign saying Ohio is NOT enough

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4889933

[dascientist]

14. Does this mean TX wont count?

is that what it means?

[Renew Deal]

15. Welcome to DU!!!

:hi:

[loveangelc]

17. there's only a 5 percent different in tx now.

[Renew Deal]

19. El Paso early voters just hit.

+20,000 votes for hillary

[BuyingThyme]

20. The votes are flipping right now.

Hillary will be ahead within the half hour.

[bigtree]

21. kick

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Must Be Your First Date

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