SurveyUSA: Obama, Clinton Tied in Texas (O-49, C-48)

[catgirl]

2% other
2% undecided

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=d7698664-137f-46f0-ba92-32aea473d72e

I think Obama will eke this one out.

[NJSecularist]

1. East Texas will decide this race

Specifically Travis and Jefferson counties.

[Hawkeye-X]

4. Travis will decidely go for Obama

I've spent some time there recently and have heard a lot about liking Obama.

Plus it's Samuel L. Jackson's county, and he's already campaigning here - and doing the movie also helps.

Hawkeye-X

[9119495]

10. "Make this muthafuckin Obama my muthafuckin president!"

Or is Samuel Jackson campaigning on a slightly lower key?

[TexasObserver]

13. Travis county is central Texas - Austin. Jefferson is Beaumont.

Both of those counties will go for Obama, I guarantee it.

[MadBadger]

2. Crunching the Numbers myself and what I expect, Obama will win 52-48

[NJSecularist]

3. May I ask how you got these calculations?

[MadBadger]

6. I looked at the PPP cross tabs that have Hillary up 6

They have the black vote at 22%, and the Hispanic vote at 29%. My issue with SUSA is that they think it will be only 17% African American and 32% Hispanic. My thinking was that it will be 24% black and 28% Hispanic. I gave Obama an 87-13 lead for Blacks, Hillary a 64-36 lead among Hispanics, and I believe I have her about a 13-14 lead in the White vote. He won the other category. I came to 52.5 for Obama I believe it will be a little lower.

[catgirl]

5. I'll take that

There's a report out stating Clinton will continue in the race if she
wins the popular votes in OH and TX. So, I'll take the TX win any
day (although I don't believe Hillary at her word).

[bluestateguy]

7. That may very well be true

And then Obama will knock her out in the caucus that night. He will win more delegates in Texas.

[LostInAnomie]

8. A 50/50 split or even a slight Hillary win is still a victory for Obama.

The way TX's delegates are split up will give the advantage to Obama. Without the 65% win that Hillary needs in a big state, it is a crushing loss for her.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

9. That'll be enough

A narrow win in the primary and a smashing win in the caucus will be enough to shatter the superdelegate wall and put an end to this thing.

[catgirl]

11. Plus Richardson looks likes he's poised to endorse Obama

if Hillary doesn't have decisive wins.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

12. Richardson will just be the start

When the party gets the full scope of a guaranteed winner being kneecapped by someone bent on a scorched earth run for the nomination... I think it'll be over by next Tuesday. If Huckabee was on the TV saying, "Me or Obama would make fine candidates, McCain is a shithead," the RNC would have him in a shallow grave by now.