Which Candidate Is Favored In The Twelve Post-March 4th Contests??

[malik flavors]

Wyoming (March 8th)
Mississippi (March 11th)
Pennsylvania (April 22nd)
Guam (May 3rd)
Indiana (May 6th)
North Carolina (May 6th)
West Virginia (May 13th)
Kentucky (May 20th)
Oregon (May 20th)
Montana (June 3rd)
South Dakota (June 3rd)
Puerto Rico (June 7th)

I'm guessing that at the moment Obama is favored in Mississippi and North Carolina, and Clinton is favored in Pennsylvania, but what about the others?

Any word or predictions on the other states?

[slick8790]

1. I think

Wyoming - Obama
Mississippi - Obama
Penn - Clinton
Guam - ?
NC - Obama
WV - Obama
KY - Clinton
OR - Clinton
MT - Obama
SD - Obama
Puerto Rico - ?

[MadBadger]

3. I think Oregon is an Obama state

[panader0]

6. Yes. I used to live there and I would be surprised it they weren't

for Obama

[BeatleBoot]

8. I agree.

Every Republican pear and apple farmer will come out to vote for Obama.

[skipos]

14. Maybe Murdoch can do a fundraiser for her out there?

His last one was a huge success!


Even if he can't, I think the Limbaugh, Beck and Coulter endorsements will cause her to surge in the polls!
Go Hillary!
:woohoo:

[BeatleBoot]

21. Since Rezko (Syria) and Auchi (Iraq) are currently "out of pocket" for Barack....

I think when in a glass house, you shouldn't throw stones.

But that's just me and my Democratic upbringing....

[skipos]

24. But you weren't "throwing stones" in the post above though, right?

Just like Hillary has always been the underdog, the media never told us she was our nominee, Hillary has been against NAFTA from the getgo and was just as anti-war as Obama. Black is white. Up is down.

[BeatleBoot]

25. Not at all - just Stating Facts. Oregon is a Caucus

http://blog.oregonlive.com/elections/caucus_2008/

It will happen like any other open caucus. And the end result will be the same as we have seen.

Republicans will come out and vote Obama. Not because they believe in him, but to defeat Hillary. They have every right to do that.

I just have a problem supporting someone whose "rise" is attributed to Republican votes.

[skipos]

28. I thought you and Mark Penn were blaming "party activists" for your steady string of defeats?

So now it is Republicans, Democratic activists, Independents, blacks, men, the youth, red states and caucuses... those are the ONLY things responsible for Hillary's surprisingly weak performance. If it wasn't for those insignificant little things, Hillary (the candidate who is ready on day one) would be kicking ass! :woohoo:

[Flabbergasted]

9. Beyond doubt we are.

[Recursion]

10. Guam to Obama, PR to Clinton

I'd also give OR to Obama, and I think KY is damned competitive. WV could go more for Clinton, particularly if OH does.

[lapfog_1]

17. I thought I saw a pole that said Guam was going Clinton

course, it could be months out of date.

[Recursion]

19. I'll admit I'm just judging by HI and American Samoa

That's the extent of my Guam analysis.

[lapfog_1]

16. Guam is definitely going Clinton

unless Obama shows up there for a campaign rally.

[John Q. Citizen]

2. Obama in most, with the exceptions of maybe KY, WV and PR

[adoraz]

4. my guesses

and a lot of these really are just guesses without much knowledge

Wyoming (March 8th)- Obama
Mississippi (March 11th)- Obama
Pennsylvania (April 22nd) - Clinton
Guam (May 3rd) - Clinton
Indiana (May 6th) - Clinton
North Carolina (May 6th) - Obama
West Virginia (May 13th) -Clinton
Kentucky (May 20th) -Clinton
Oregon (May 20th) -Obama
Montana (June 3rd) -Obama
South Dakota (June 3rd) -Obama
Puerto Rico (June 7th) -Clinton

But, of course, that is just RIGHT NOW, without any campaigning. Things could easily change.

Those would be my guesses if all were held today.

Pretty much a split of delegates I think.

[Debi]

5. That is an unanswerable question

because the outcome of the March 4th contests will affect all the others. :shrug:

Go back to January 2nd and tell me who was favored in the Feb 5th states (and in Wisconsin & Maryland/DC/Virginia).

[malik flavors]

12. Well, I didn't ask who would win, I was wondering who is favored.

[Debi]

15. That's my point

Who is favored today may not be who is favored on March 5th. January 3rd changed the level of support for candidates in the later contests. And on and on....

[malik flavors]

18. Well, I want to know who is favored at this very moment. The end.

[Debi]

26. Here's a link

http://www.pollster.com/08presidentialprimary.php

Now cover your ears/eyes and pretend that next Tuesday isn't going to happen x(

[malik flavors]

7. Is there a poll out of Wyoming Yet? I haven't noticed one. Also...

Does anyone know which of the remaining states are caucases and which are primaries? That's also a good sign of who has an advantage.

[Yael]

11. PA will not go Clinton

If she is still in the race -- we will carry this state for Obama. Lots of excitement around his campaign here.

[Skoods]

13. No he won't...

He's not going to win Pennsylvania. I'm starting to be scared he's going to lose it in November. The steel workers are going to bring it home for Clinton.

[Yael]

20. Edwards still holds that endorsement

Something about counting chickens....

[Skoods]

23. Endorsements only do so much...

if he ever does endorse, of course..

[grantcart]

22. If you watch this from Idaho

you would have to say all of them go Obama

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z__BFQuDSkE&feature=related


This thread is from a DU canvasser who is reporting on what is happening in PA today:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4836143




Quinnipiac has been doing the most consistent polling in PA
quote
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, surging among younger voters, has cut Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead among Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters to 6 points, 49 - 43 percent, after trailing by 16 points just two weeks ago, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
unquote

PA will go to Obama as will all of the others except Puerto Rico

[Yael]

27. I wouldn't be so sure

He has the endorsement of the very popular Governor of PR.

[cali]

29. Obama in all of them

barring a political miracle, Clinton won't be in the race by the time those races roll around.