Survey USA - Arizona Poll (634 Likely Voters): Bush 51, Kerry 42

[TheStateChief]

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Please don't shoot the messenger!

[aquart]

1. Anybody here expecting Arizona to go blue? Didn't think so.

McVeigh spent a lot of time in Arizona. They were his kind of people.

[Kathleen04]

5. I don't think AZ is an impossibility..

It's still early in the game; if Kerry makes an effort there, I think it could be in play. It is a swing state..I don't think we should concede it.

[blondeatlast]

19. I think Kerry can do well here--he needs to come out here and try. nt

[dusty64]

26. It IS worth

a try.

[Redleg]

2. Not surprising.

I wonder about the sample size and sampling techniques.

[drthais]

3. exactly

'634 likely voters'

is a very small and rediculous sample

[GemMom]

9. Not really

Most polls published in big city newspapers are done with 400-600 responses.

[PA-DEM]

17. Rasmussen

Survey USA uses the same method that Rasmussen uses (automated)

[alcuno]

4. According to this poll, * is exactly where he was in 2000.

He received 51% of the vote in 2000. This poll has a margin of error of 4%. Don't remember if the Democrats "contested" Arizona in 2000.

[blondeatlast]

20. Didn't contest it, but it looked like the Dems were leading

for most of the night. The local news didn't call it until early morning.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. I hate to say it but

if it were Kerry/McCain vs Bush/Cheney I wanted what the results would have been.

[AgadorSparticus]

7. i don't believe the #'s. i'm in AZ and i've met tons of people who hate b*

i'm in tucson and i see dean stickers and posters everywhere. Some clark too. but NEVER a bush sign. I'm sure the kerry posters will start popping up soon.

[beanball]

14. Cochise county(bush stronghold)

there are some weird birds in Cochise county.

[blondeatlast]

22. Hit to you, too!

You are definitely in wingnut territory down there in Cochise.

[blondeatlast]

21. Hey, fellow Zonie!

:hi:

Big state and a bunch of us DUers here.

[Leilani]

8. It's a very small sample

& it's likely voters, not certain or registered.

But I think it's going to be close. Most of the polls done since Kerry clinched nomination show same results as 2000.

[Lexingtonian]

10. seems correct but is probably pretty fluid

I'd expected something on the order of 47 to 45.

Hispanic voters in the Southwest outside of California are supposedly polling unexpectedly conservative the past couple of months (the partisan split is nearly 50/50 rather than 65/35) for reasons I can't see clearly figured out anywhere. A 15% change in the Hispanic vote (~40% of Arizona voters) is 6%, which is approximately how much the numbers that SUSA gives are off from expected trend.

So far Democratic politicians in the area, especially who are Hispanic, aren't making any noises about this, so the thought seems to be that this 15% drift is temporary or far from solid.

[Arendal]

11. This is bad sign

:(

[readmylips]

12. They used the rich republicans of Scottsdale....

Arizona is such a huge growing state, and most people moving to AZ are from California and the cold states. The number of democrats registered in AZ has doubled. People moving here are democrats. That is why we were able to elect democrat Janet Napolitano as governor. The huge hispanic community of AZ are also democrats. Governor Napolitano is working for Kerry. She's smart and an outstanding speaker.

[blondeatlast]

23. The Repubican stronghold has always been the rural areas

and the still very small counts of the wealthiest people (there are still more working class people in Scottsdale than there are wealthy, you just don't here about them).

With the vast immigration from other states, they numbers are quickly diminishing.

I really believe Kerry can pull off a win this year in AZ. I'll sure as hell be working towards it!

[fujiyama]

13. This poll...

goes along with another poll several weeks ago. Kerry hasn't got much traction in that state. I would make a play for it for sure, but it seems as though OH and even FL may be more "in play" than AZ.

[imax2268]

15. Well...

I know many people who are not going to vote for BushCo...and others that I talk to for the first time say they are not voting for Bush...I see John Kerry stickers everywhere...I see anti-BushCo stickers everywhere...many of the letters to the editors in the Arizona Republic contain letters blasting BushCo than ones that praise him...

there was a poll not to long ago that polled the same amount of people and had almost the same results...so I don't know who they are asking but those numbers are BS...only 600&some polled...I'm not worried...

[Finch]

16. Tiny sampel...

...you need up-wards of a thousand participants and these need to be people who WILL vote for an accurate assessment of which way the state is leaning....personally i think the Bush lead will be narrower than in 2000 but ultimately i reckon we will lose NM and AZ and probably NV and IA...however we will almost certainly win NH and we have good shots in OH and WV and a much better shot at FL than i thought we would have a few weeks back....

[blondeatlast]

24. Nor am I--things have changed dramatically since the days

of this being Goldwater country.

[blondeatlast]

18. I'm a longtime Arizonan. AZ tends to be Repug country,

but a lot of Bush's recent policies are going to put a lot of the Repug base off, particularly in terms of immigration. This will push them to an independent, or even to a Dem, though they will hold their noses.

This is a big issue, and it could ruin AZ for Bush--it doesn't really matter what the Dems offer up for the issue.

We came close to electing Clinton in '92, even closer in '96--we are talking the width of one strand of hair here. Don't count us out; as the state's population gets younger and less native, we are becoming more liberal.

[WyLoochka]

25. Clinton won AZ in '96 n/t

[blondeatlast]

31. I stand corrected. You are indeed correct. nt

[AlinPA]

27. This is bad. Numbers should be better. Kerry has been

defined by the media and its going to be tough. Damn.

[AntiCoup2K4]

28. While Arizona's not entirely a bastion of "liberalism"...

...Even most of the conservatives there tend to be more the traditional type than the neocon corporate fascist type. Remember this is the home of Barry Goldwater and John McCain, both of whom fit that description.

From what I've observed down there, Junior doesn't have a big fan base.

I guess this would be a "plus" for the rumored Kerry/McCain ticket though ;)

[blondeatlast]

30. You ar spot on target. Very traditional conservatives with a stubborn

streak.

[West Coast Democrat]

29. Put Clark on the ticket, and AZ in well within reach

That's not a very comfortable lead for Bush, and merely one poll.