fyi - Obama still needs 731 delegates to secure the nom. Hillary needs 807.

[jillan]

This contest is not over.

Should Hillary continue to lose - then yes - it will be over.

But as of today, we stil have a long way to go.

edit to add where I got the numbers from -
It was from my paper, which is unfortunate because what they have online is not the same as what they have in print. BUT this is what they have online:

The Illinois senator's Wisconsin victory left him with 1,303 delegates in The Associated Press' count, compared with 1,233 for Clinton.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CAMPAIGN_RDP?SITE=AZMES&SECTION=NATIONAL&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
Basically the same margin.


Double edit - color me embarrassed, I posted the numbers backwards.
Freudian slip?

[OzarkDem]

1. Its still a close race

[cali]

45. Technically, perhaps

but she's been blown out of the water in the last 10 races. She's lost by at least 17%. Her campaign is on life support.

[Johnny__Motown]

2. where the hell did you get those numbers from? he is ahead by 160 pledged and even with SD leads by

about 80

[qanda]

6. I was wondering the same thing

Perhaps the OP has the numbers mixed up.

[elixir]

3. Pirhana, Hillary supporter here. Where did you get the numbers?

Thanks!

[Lucinda]

7. I still have CNN's up:

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D

[jillan]

21. ha - that's even closer.

[Mass]

35. Care to explain your numbers?

Magic numbers - 2025

CNN numbers for Obama: 1315 - Remaining number: 710.

CNN numbers for Clinton": 1245 - Remaining number 780.

Obama is AHEAD and NEEDS LESS DELEGATES, not more.

This said, if you consider pledged delegates: Obama is about 170 ahead (CNN numbers).

[Lucinda]

4. I was just looking at the numbers at CNN and NYT

It's definitely do-able. :)

[Johnny__Motown]

she needs 58% of all remaining pledged to catch up, 65% if you assume she will lose some states

not realistic to assume she can do that unless Barack makes a major gaff in one of the debates

[Johnny__Motown]

30. double post sorry

had an error report and made another similar post. my bad

[knowledgeispwr]

5. How do those numbers make sense?

Obama is leading in number of delegates.

[yellowcanine]

20. Well they don't. And they ignore the fact that super delegates can still switch.

Obama's super delegate pledges are bound to sky rocket this week as many will want to climb on board before the nomination is sewn up. Holding out too long reduces political capital for the hold outs.

[high density]

8. Fuzzy math?

Long way to go? For Hillary, yes, she's got to pull off a miracle to win this.

[scheming daemons]

9. Um... even including SUPERDELEGATES... Obama is up by a count of...

1354 to 1263

(realclearpolitics.com)



2025 are needed.




Obama therefore needs only 671. Hillary needs 762.



Math much?

[TheDoorbellRang]

44. The problem is that every source seems to figure it differently

Here's CNN's take on it

1,315 Obama 1,245Clinton
1,154Pledged 1,011Pledged
161Superdels 234Superdels

Needed to Win: 2,025

And I know the NYT figures it differently than everyone else.

I've been keeping an individual state tally from the cnn site, and their own tally doesn't add up to what their total shows, so I think they may be talking out of their hats. I'm beginning to think the only way to get a correct count is to go to each state's democratic party headquarters online and get the total there. Very frustrating.

[BeyondGeography]

10. It's not over until DelegateHub says so

A healthy approach to winning in November right there.

[Araxen]

11. I didn't major in math, I majored in miracles.

[GoldieAZ49]

27. right, now we have Huckabee and Hillabee n/t

[oasis]

12. Good. I'd hate to live through four years of a McCain presidency. (eom)

[Infinite Hope]

13. Obama is ahead of Clinton FYI. Your numbers are obviously flawed.

Even with superdelegates, Obama is ahead approximately 80.

[kentuck]

14. But you raise an interesting scenario..

I would guess that Bill Clinton and Hillary are on the phone and talking to several dozen SD's in attempting to get them to come out now in support of Hillary so they can make the delegate count much closer and give the Hillary supporters hope that this nomination is still possible. Look for a dramatic increase in Hillary SD votes in the next few days.

[Bullet1987]

15. I call bullshit...

[still_one]

16. The truth is the race is TOO CLOSE TO CALL, the truth is also

that no matter who are nominee is, WE WILL WIN

mccain represents an extension of the bush policies, and people have had enough

[scheming daemons]

17. Not only can pirhana not properly spell his username (the word is "piranha"), he can't do math...

...

[rodeodance]

31. let me remind you of

something. making fun of peoples chosen screen names is against the rules.
I would edit your post.

[jillan]

43. You are probably one of the rudest people on this board.

Pirhana is spelled that way on purpose - it's from something personal, and funny to members in my family.

Why is it your business anyway????

[AlertLurker]

18. Obama needs 871, Clinton 1014.

Counting currently "pledged" superdelegates, Obama needs 710, Clinton needs 780.


I have no idea where your numbers came from, but they seem incorrect.

[jillan]

28. The link is in the op.

[scheming daemons]

36. And your link shows you are wrong!

*YOUR* link shows Obama ahead of Clinton in delegates.


Your OP says that Hillary is ahead.



Sheesh... you're posting links that prove you are wrong!

[Johnny__Motown]

39. Did you read it?

from your link


The Illinois senator's Wisconsin victory left him with 1,303 delegates in The Associated Press' count, compared with 1,233 for Clinton, a margin that masks his 145-delegate lead among those picked in primaries or caucuses. It takes 2,025 to win the nomination at the party's national convention in Denver. Allocation of the 20 Hawaii delegates was not being calculated until later Wednesday.




1303 Obama
1233 Clinton

[Mass]

40. You may want to explain your math. Because Obama needs less new delegates than Clinton, not more.

[thevoiceofreason]

19. I want some of whatever you're taking.

[yellowcanine]

23. Kool aid isn't that hard to get.

[DUyellow]

22. post and run

[jillan]

25. I'm right here.

[scheming daemons]

29. So post the source for your numbers....

...not a single source shows Hillary ahead in the delegate count. Not one.


Post a link, or STFU.

[jillan]

32. Hey -tt - did you not READ my entire post?

[scheming daemons]

38. Yes! Your subject says that Hillary needs LESS... your link says that she needs MORE than Obama...

...are you that dense?

[Mass]

41. OK, I see you have corrected your OP.

[scheming daemons]

26. Of course! Facts don't matter to these people....

...pirhana obviously can't back up his numbers.... so he doesn't return to the thread.... even to answer the questions from fellow Hillary supporters.

[rodeodance]

24. Thanks---no it is not over

[Occam Bandage]

33. So, Obama has more delegates, and requires more to win. Gotcha.

:crazy:

[jillan]

42. I fixed it, posted backwards.

yes I feel stupid :P

[scheming daemons]

34. HELLO? 1303 is MORE than 1233.....

.... your OP says that Obama needs more than Clinton....

..yet you post numbers showing that Obama needs LESS!


Can you not even read your own links?


Unbelievable.

[Radical Activist]

37. Not when more super delegaes switch sides.

More super delegates will leave her when its clear that she won't win and needs to drop out.

[rodeodance]

46. I will wait and see rather than making ASSumptions.

[Johnny__Motown]

47. I believe she lost 5 in the last week. not an assumption (although the count varies)

[Johnny__Motown]

48. HERE IS AN ASSUMPTION FOR YA.............

http://www.politickernj.com/two-nj-supedelegates-go-obama-16541

2 more switched today, that should be 7 lost in 8 days

[rodeodance]

49. thanks for keeping track. The race is on--have a good day

[Radical Activist]

50. Its already happening.

No need to wait and see. They're already switching. I guess you can blind yourself to what you don't want to see.