Zorro versus Mrs. Potatohead.

[saltpoint]

I listened to Barack Obama's address Tuesday the 13th and to Hillary Clinton's address last evening, both carried on Madison's progressive radio station, 92.1 FM.

His audience was estimated to be c. 17,000 to 20,000 or possibly more. Hers was set at about 3,000-4,500 or so in a smaller venue.

We now have the results of the Wisconsin primary, with a very strong double-digit win for Sen. Obama.

I reiterate that I find strengths in both candidates and will support our ticket in November.

But.

At this moment, with Obama cutting and slicing into Clinton's demographic stronghold constituencies, this race is turning into Zorro versus Mrs. Potatohead.

Wisconsin should have been Clinton's definitionally characteristic demographic. Her people did not turn out, or possibly they did turn out but were significantly overwhelmed.

This is a huge night for Democratic politics, IMO.

[mathewsleep]

1. hi crusoe.

i like your metaphor.

[saltpoint]

2. Hi, mathewsleep. It won't be very popular on this site.

But the statistics kinda speak for themselves.

Hope you are well.

:hi:

[mathewsleep]

5. i'm fine.

i'm actually getting ready for a trip to texas. leavin' the coffee shop for a couple of weeks to go campaign for obama. can't wait to get to the sun, michigan is so cold.

[saltpoint]

8. You dserve to have th warm sun on your skin, and the break will

be incredibly inspiring, but what a great thing you are doing to volunteer for a political campaign in another state.

Jefferson and Madison would have recognized high citizenship when they saw it, and you honor their best hopes by doing what you're doing.

Congratulations, and right on. I hope you report back on how it goes. I'd love to read your account.

[mathewsleep]

13. i was actually born there.

so it's kinda my home state.

[saltpoint]

15. All the better. By god, I think you are going to LOVE this trip

and I hope you'll bring a journal and post accounts on DU.

Larry McMurtry early on introduced Texas to me in his writing. I came away from it with a lot of respect for the place.

[mathewsleep]

16. i was going to keep a journal.

i wanted to document my trip.

[saltpoint]

18. Excellent. Then I'll shut up and let you follow your own excellent instincts.

Kudos for what you are doing, mathewsleep.

Just excellent.

[mathewsleep]

20. i'll be sure to keep you posted.

[Coexist]

3. unrelated joke - because I love your post, and wanted to share a gem:

from David Letterman tonight:

"Many observers believe Fidel Castro will either be replaced by his brother Raul, or by his idiot son, Fidel W. Castro."

[saltpoint]

4. LOL! There's that 'W' -- and it's sticking to idiot sons the world over!

Thank you for that, FLDem5.

[casus belli]

6. So, which accessories does she carry in her "compartment"?

Sorry, I just couldn't resist. I'm pretty sure she doesn't go anywhere without the mouth though...and maybe the helmet to appeal to her blue collar supporters.

[saltpoint]

9. I really feel that she would have been a far stronger candidate if

she'd have dumped all her husband's old chums and gone with fresh blood.

She's got some cards to play but just did not lay them on the table.

[SoCalDem]

10. I think HE wanted her to run more than SHE wanted to run..

and it shows.. She is not comfortable out there..it shows..HE's the schmoozer..not her..

[saltpoint]

14. Hi, SoCalDem. That's an interesting angle. I hadn't considered it.

They both look kind of edgy. Sen. Clinton's address last night was an improvement over her earlier-in-the-year public addresses.

I thought it needed a little tweaking on some key emphasis points, but in the overall, it was markedly better than she was doing in say, December or early January.

But it's coming way too late now for it to be definitional for her.

[casus belli]

19. I completely agree...

I think the Clinton campaign miscalculated in a very big way, how they would actually be helping Obama by focusing on his lack of experience. What they didn't bargain for, was that there are alot of people - particularly younger educated voters - who are really sick of the status quo in politics. These people have responded enthusiatically to Obama's message, and they believe that he really DOES want to bring about change because he is an outsider to the process. Clinton, with her juggernaut machine, really fell short on the change argument and alot of voters saw through it. It's hard to claim to want to change the system, while using your "experience" in the system as a bargaining chip. I think by painting Obama as an outsider, they actually helped solidify his position as someone who may genuinely want to shake up the system and return government to the people.

Your argument makes alot of sense if you look at it that way. Had she started clean, without the benefit of the machine and the long-standing connections she had in her corner - she could have made a better case for wanting change.

[saltpoint]

21. Agree -- and I would be the first to admit that she has the chops to make

such an argument.

But before we can even spot Sen. Clinton, we have to wade through Wolfson and Penn and who the hell knows who else -- and somewhere at the bottom of this stack of odd, eccentric, and outdated hacks, is the candidate.

On her own two feet, she's pretty darn good.

[casus belli]

23. She's brilliant, no doubt...

but I think the point you have raised goes a long way towards explaining why she is perceived by many to be calculating and sort of cold. There's a really good chance that much of that has to do with who is whispering in her ear.

[saltpoint]

24. Sadly, I think that's it exactly -- there's a kind of blind spot that she

appears to have regarding Wolfson and Penn and Carville and so forth.

For a large part of the past week, we heard Wolfson blathering and belching about "plagiarism," when what Senator Clinton could have used most was vigorous and genuine support for her health care initiatives against the backdrop of a nation being gutted by Bush and his cronies.

It does not speak very well of a national political campaign when its directors are running fake outrage charges against a primry opponent instead of bolstering the virtues of their own candidate.

[casus belli]

25. Exactly right.

She should have been more focused on her own strengths (of which there are many, rather than trying to focus in on any perceived weakness in Obama's strategy. I think she would have gained alot more traction. Ultimately, I think her campaign weaknesses come down more on the side of failed and dated strategy and planners than it does any particular indictment of her as a candidate.

[saltpoint]

28. I'd hug you if you were right here, casus belli, but absent that, let me

endorse what you've said big time.

Maybe I'm too gullible, but in what meeting did Sen. Clinton and her advisors for her campaign make the decision to attack Obama on "plagiarism" ? I am having a hard time imagining anyone proposing that in such a meeting, especially a meeting in which Sen. Clinton is present.

Hearing such a proposal, why would she not have asked, "Uh, excuse me you testosterone freaks, but this campaign is stronger when it is a logistical advocacy of my strengths as a candidate and not when we're slinging bullshit at our opponents."

The strategy Wolfson was pumping all week long in Wisconsin debased Sen. Clinton at exactly a time when she most needed positive assertions of her value to the country and to history.

[casus belli]

31. Seems to be a popular meme for us lately, unfortunately

I think our candidates were good in 2004 as well, but Kerry was given absolutely horrible advice on how to run his campaign. Not repsonding to the swiftboat accustaions quickly and unequivocally was a huge mistake. Had he done so, it would have probably resulted in a very different outcome. Instead, it was a very large nail in his coffin and stuck with him through the entire GE. I think we are seeing now, in Obama's campaign, that focusing on strengths poses a very powerful counter-argument to attacks. He has managed to run a solid campaign and avoid character assasination at the same time. Clinton's advisors just couldn't find an easy way to counter the traction he was getting with his message for change, and decided instead to take her down the same old backroads that have been travelled a million times over.

Ultimately, I think it shows that she surrounds herself with people who don't believe in her. I would argue that I have more faith in her abilities than her "people". If they truly understood her strengths and believed that they were enough to carry her campaign, they wouldn't have tried to take the easy way out by going negative on Obama. I think you're exactly right. Wolfson was the worst possible person for her campaign at the worst possible time. She needs people around her that fervently believe that she should be the centerpiece of her campaign, based on her own accomplishments and strengths, and not defining her with what is wrong with someone else.

Hugz right back atcha... :)

[saltpoint]

32. casus belli, I am struck by the juxtaposition of your user name with the

choice of avatar.

It's striking, and in an exciting, provocative way. I am familiar with the respect the Bloomington community holds for the Buddhist monastery thereabouts and have even visited its grounds. It's quite a breath-taking glen there in the middle of post-industrial Indiana. Whether you are in Evansville or Fort Wayne or Noblesville, we agree on politics to a shocking extent, seems like.

Sen. Clinton might still regain momentum and headlines if she wins in TX and OH, but after this evening, her campaign staff must realize that it will be difficult to do. I don't say impossible, but more difficult. Ultimately I suppose she has to make the call, but it might be a boost if she sacked the lot of them in a press conference tomorrow and then landed in Galveston or Toledo or Odessa or Dayton and announced their summary dismissals. She could say, "I'm Hillary Clinton, on my own two feet, on American soil." And go from there.

If she keeps Wolfson et al around much longer, Senator Obama is going to blow her out of the water.

[K Gardner]

7. Wonderful Evenin to you, OC and agreed, this is a huge night for Dems.. the

beginning of something extraordinary, methinks. :hi: :hug: :yourock:

[saltpoint]

Hiya, K Gardner.

I was prompted in part by Jimmy Carter's wiin over Mo Udall in Wisconsin some many years ago now.

That effectively ended the more-progressive Udall's hopes of becoming the nominee. Wisconsin as his Waterloo, and Carter of course went on to win the White House.

Tonight, it feels to me that Wisconsin has delivered a fatal blow to establishmentarian Clinton in favor of the more charismatic Obama.

She could hold TX and OH, but as of about 9:00 Eastern this evening, that proposition became increasingly iffy.

[TheDoorbellRang]

11. Well, that should help him with the Hispanic vote

but it sure didn't do much for her in Idaho. :D

[saltpoint]

12. LOL!

[JackORoses]

17. exactly

vs.

[Warren DeMontague]

22. You, sir, have a way with words.

I think you nailed it in 4.

[Usrename]

26. The primary has reached a mathematical tipping point.

There are not many more undecided voters left. Obama has reached the 50% popularity in the polls. From this point forward, for every
point he goes up, Clinton must come down by the same amount. Or, for the sake of argument, vice versa.

If his trajectory maintains this course for the next two weeks, this could be completely devastating. Her popularity will
(by mathematical necessity) be the inverse of his. It looks pretty grim to me.

There's no way to stop the bleeding, she should consider her options. I don't think she want's to ride this to the convention.





http://www.pollster.com/USTopzDems.php

[saltpoint]

27. Charted like that, the nomination race is visually persuasive.

The sharp upturn for Al Gore is interesting there...

[Usrename]

33. I agree about big Al.

It's as if the movement started without any real leader. Al appears to have sort of been the default go-to guy, probably because of his movie and his concerts and his Nobel and such. He was in the news a whole bunch at that time. He may have been the one to actually start this thing rolling (I believe that he was). But once it became clear that he really wasn't interested, everything started shifting to Obama. He looks like he became the alternate go-to guy.

It makes you wonder if he is really leading the parade, or if he's just walking along in front of a juggernaut while giving the illusion that he is leading it. In either case, I think it would be foolish for the Clinton campaign to hurl her under its wheels. It make no sense at all, this thing can't be turned back on itself in the next two weeks.

[saltpoint]

36. He's in a position to influence the nomination if Clinton were to win

in TX and OH, for instance. The momentum would be gradually hers again, although not by the sharp uptend Obama's had this past month.

But more than enough to deadlock a convention.

Then Dean would have to schedule a phone conference, likely a long one, and I think Al Gore would be heard from.

[DesEtoiles]

29. I think McCain is Mrs. Potatohead

[saltpoint]

30. Hi, NormaR. I think McCain is a walking corpse.

I'm serious -- the man is in questionable health.

There's no vigor, no zip, no piss-and-vinegar political feistiness that characterized the 2000 John McCain.

Should Senator Obama win our nomination, the electorate will be asked to choose between a war-mongering corpse who appears not to have learned the lessons of his own era, and a very agile community builder who opposed the war from the git-go.

With the long, sick shadow of George W. Bush casting its length over the Republican ballot choices, I like the chances of our blue team a whole lot.

[bklyncowgirl]

34. I was thinking Secretariat vs Sham last night. but yours is cuter

I love horse racing analogies for politics. Maybe it might have to do with the fact that one features big, handsome, small brained creatures being run around in circles by midgits and the other involves, well, poiticians and consultants.

Sham was a magnificent race horse. The pride of the west coast, a stunning black colt with a record of winning. In any other year he might have won the Triple Crown.

He ran the Kentucky Derby in the fastest time in history--except for the powerful red colt who blew by him in the last quarter like he was standing still. Racing experts were stunned, Secretariat had been the favorite but no one had expected him to come from almost dead last in the 20 odd horse field and run the last quarter of the mile and a quarter race faster than the first. In a long race the last quarter is almost always slower as the tired animals struggle for home and the horse with the most staying power wins--it's almost physiologically impossible for a horse to run at top speed for that long.

Sham's people were confident he could reverse the defeat in the Preakness. A shorter race, a smaller field--Secretariat couldn't hide behind the pack. A track with sharp turns, trouble for a huge striding horse like Secretariat. The gates opened, Sham went to the lead but as the rounded the fist turn Sham's jockey saw a flash of red and blue and suddenly Secretariat was four lengths ahead of him--his jockey sitting chilly, as they say--just letting the big horse go as he pleased. Secretariat kept the same margin between him and the hard driving Sham and did it without breaking a sweat.

In the mile and a half Belmont Secretariat, uncharistically, broke on the lead, Sham at his side. This time Sham would try to run Secretariat off his feet. The race was on. The two horses blazed up the track far too fast for such a long race. Veteran railbirds screamed at the jockeys to slow down. As they reached the final turn, Sham was done for. Secretariat went on to win by 32 lengths in world record time the most stunning performance by a race horse in history. Sham never raced again. When he went back into training the old spirit was gone. His trainer said his heart was broken. Some months later he was diagnosed with a hairline fracture. Sham was retired to stud.

Sham was a very good horse who had the bad luck to run into a true freak. Secretariat had almost perfect conformation and was considerably more intelligent than the average horse--the perfect storm if you will. Many years later, when Secretariat died, it was discovered that his heart was far larger than a normal equine heart. This was why he could sustain a killer pace long after other horses had given up.

Ironically, Secretariat could be beat. A trainer named Allen (The Giant Killer) Jerkens managed to do it twice--with mid level stakes horses named Onion and Prove Out. His secret, take the lead, slow the pace down and hope that the big horse got bored. Secretariat was not the horse to take more than a polite suggestion from his jockey that it was time to get moving. Use the whip too aggressively and the world's greatest race horse would make a fool out of you fast.

Sham wasn't well served by his very aggressive trainer and jockey. They believed that the key was to run Secretariat off his feet. That was a bad strategy. Once in a fight Secretariat wasn't letting up and physically he couldn't be beat.

Hillary's campaign reminds me of these guys. They keep thinking that if they keep pushing the same old lines of attack that somehow Obama will crack. It seems to me that they would do better to let Hillary Clinton be Hillary--or at least the Hillary we got a glimpse of in New Hampshire. It'll be interesting to see what she does in the debate tonight.

[saltpoint]

35. byklyncowgirl, you must truly be a cowgirl to have such a command of

horses. Very impressive and genuinely impressive.

I'm an admirer of but certainly no expert at all on the subject, so I read your post with interest and respect.

I had never read about Secretariat's larger heart. Unbelievable.

Agree with you -- the debate could be a lot more important than it would have been with a different posturing at this point in the nomination contest.

My problem with the Clinton campaign is the old guard from the 90s who are calling the shots. The past week's decisions to go into fake outrage mode over Obama's "plagiarism" was ballot booth poison. The numbers coming in from Green Bay, for example, which ought to have been competitive for HClinton at the worst, show convincing strength for Obama. He did well in other manufacturing/blue collar areas of the state, and so coupled with the expected strength in the Milwaukee and Madison areas, he just walloped her.

It was junkyard politics and had the effect of making her stuffy and concrete instead of stable and flexible, while Obama's campaign was fluid. It felt to me to more evidence of a "blind spot" she has with the Penn and Wolfson cadre in her campaign.

[bklyncowgirl]

37. Thanks for the compliment. I do think that Clinton's managers are doing her no favors.

I've always loved the races, both horse and political. I can remember watching Secretariat tearing down that Belmont stretch on a crappy little tv that someone had brought down to the barn where I was working. I was surrounded by experienced horse people, including a guy who'd watched Man O War run. None of them had ever seen anything like that.

The decision to go after Obama on a dubious charge of plagerism, was just dumb, especially since what's worked for them in past primaries, especially in New Hampshire but also on Super Tuesday where she held her own was a softer approach. The fact that they don't appear to have thought much past Super Tuesday is rather extroadinary--how much is she paying Mark Penn???

I believe that Barack Obama is an extroadinary, naturally gifted politician--although whether he'd be an equally gifted President remains to be seen. Hillary Clinton is someone who has to work harder at it--I've heard them compared to Mozart and Salieri and it's a comparison that also sticks. In addition, like certain other politicians, Reagan comes to mind, Obama has a pretty thick coat of teflon. Throw mud at that teflon shield and more often than not it's going to bounce back and hit you in the face.

Sham's trainer thought he could keep throwing his horse at Secretariat and sooner or later the big red horse would crack. He ended up breaking his own horse. The guy who beat Big Red twice, Allen Jerkens, took a smarter approach and was able to defeat the giant not once but twice with horses that were anything but outstanding.

Of course politicians, unlike race horses, have the freedom to make their own decisions. How much of this seeming wrongheadedness is Hillary's own doing and how much of it is that of her handlers remains to be seen. It's no good telling the world that you have a plan to fix the country when apparently, you don't have an effective plan to deal with the junior senator from Illinois.

By the way, another interesting thing about Secretariat. He was retired to stud as a perfectly sound three year old--syndicated for a then record six million dollars and was euthanized with complications from laminitis at a relatively young age. He was not a great stallion. His daughters though have a reputation for producing horses with enourmous endurance. Apparently that giant heart skips a generation through the female line. Unfortunately none of his descendents have been able to reproduce the combination of speed, endurance, structural perfection and intelligence that made him such a spectacular race horse.

[saltpoint]

38. Very good question on Penn. My guess would be "way too much."

She should have listened to her own instincts far more than to Penn's and Wolfson's.

Thank you for the insights on a glorious animal. Generational breeding in animals, despite all the most carefu steps, still holds the mystery high and true.

[cd3dem]

39. Look at the numbers... more than twice voted in the democrats race than republican...

do you think the republicans stayed home because McCain already won? of course not... they are voting Hillary Clinton off the island as they always vote off the strongest competition.... dah!

[saltpoint]

40. I guess I can't blame the Republicans for being dispirited by their

choices this cycle.

I mean my god -- John McCain and Mike Huckabee as their last two choices?! Kinda pathetic.

Plus there was today's news about The Straight Talk Express taking a bit of a detour with a lobbyist. The fundies are bound to love that.

[cd3dem]

41. they have their winner.. John McCain... not any contest! they are voting for Obama now!

he is the easiest to win against!