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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 07:51 PM
Original message
WI EXIT POLL Motherload.
No official link. Posted at http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2008/2/19/134654/129/443#c443

EXIT POLL DATA (6+ / 0-)
WISCONSIN DEMOCRATS - EXIT POLL RESULTS
REPORTABLE BEFORE POLL CLOSING
POLL CLOSE IS 9PM (ET)

-The Wisconsin Democratic Primary electorate looks different compared with the Potomac states that held contests last week.

-Wisconsin Democrats are mostly white. Fewer than one in 10 are African American compared with about a third in the Maryland and Virginia Democratic primaries.

-More than half of Democratic voters in Maryland and Virginia were college graduates. In Wisconsin, four in 10 have a college degree.

-Voters in Wisconsin are also less affluent.

27% of Wisconsin Democrats decided on their candidate within the last week – since last week’s primaries. Most made up their minds before that.

Time of Decision
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Last Week 27%
Before That 73

The Economy was the most important issue for voters today. This has been the case throughout the campaign.

Most Important Issue
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Economy 43%
Health Care 25
War in Iraq 29

In addition, nine in 10 Democratic voters today said the economy was in bad shape.

View of U.S. Economy
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Good 10%
Bad 90

On the issue of trade, a majority Wisconsin Democratic primary voters said U.S. trade with other countries takes jobs away from their state.

U.S. Trade with Other Countries
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Creates more jobs 17%
Takes away jobs 70
Has no effect 9

Change was viewed as the most important quality.

Most Important Quality
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Change 52%
Experience 24
Cares 16
Can Win 7

Most voters today have voted in a primary before. Few were voting for the first time.

First Time Voter
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
YES 17%
NO 83

18% of voters are union members.

Union Voters
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
YES 18%
NO 82

Wisconsin’s primary was open today. 27% of voters identified themselves as Independents – about the same number as four years ago.

Party Affiliation
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Democrats 64%
Republicans 9
Independents 27

In terms of the tone of the campaign, voters today viewed Clinton as more of the attacker than Obama. 54% said she attacked unfairly, while 34% said that about him.

Who Attacked Unfairly
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton did 54%
Obama did 34

Democratic voters today said Obama was the candidate most likely to improve U.S. relations with the rest of the world.

Most Likely to Improve International Relations
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 42%
Obama 55

Most Clinton voters say they would be satisfied if Obama was the nominee.

Satisfied With Obama as Nominee
Among Cinton Voters
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Yes 57%
No 40

Fewer Obama voters, however, said they would be satisfied if Clinton won the nomination.

Satisfied Clinton as Nominee
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Yes 46%
No 53

Clinton has a slight edge over Obama as the candidate most qualified to be commander in chief.

Most Qualified to be Commander in Chief
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 50%
Obama 48

Obama is seen as the candidate most likely to unite the country.

Most Likely to Unite Country
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 35%
Obama 62

And Obama is seen by Wisconsin Democratic primary voters as the candidate most likely to beat the Republican nominee in November.

Most Likely to Beat Republican
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 37%
Obama 63

WISCONSIN DEMOCRATS - EXIT POLL RESULTS
REPORTABLE AFTER POLL CLOSING ONLY
POLL CLOSE IS 9PM (ET)

Obama is getting the support of men today...

Men
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 35%
Obama 61

...while women are more divided in their support.

Women
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 49%
Obama 51

Independents make up 27% of voters today and they supported Obama over Clinton. Among self-identified Democrats, voters are split.

Independents
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 34%
Obama 63

College graduates went strongly for Obama.

College Degree
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 37%
Obama 61

While voters without a college education were more divided in their support.

No College Degree
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 48%
Obama 50

Income had an impact too. Clinton and Obama are splitting those earning less than $50K
But those earning more are backing Obama.

Less than $50K
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 49%
Obama 51

$50K or more
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 39%
Obama 59

In addition, Obama continues to win the support of young voters, while Clinton wins the support of those over age 60.

Those voters who made up their minds since last week’s Potomac primaries were divided in their vote.

Late Deciders
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 42%
Obama 58

Clinton had the edge with union voters.

Union Voters
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 50%
Obama 49

Those who viewed the economy as the most important issue backed xxxx today.

Economy is Most Important
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 43%
Obama 55

Those who said change was the most important quality in their vote supported Obama today.

Change is Most Important
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 20%
Obama 77

by hematuria on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 04:16:18 PM PST

http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2008/2/19/134654/129/443#c443


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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 07:56 PM
Response to Original message
1. If those numbers are correct, Obama will win WI by 13 points.
I did some calculations and that's what I got.
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Chasing Dreams Donating Member (294 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:02 PM
Response to Reply #1
7. Yes, That's Right: Obama 56%, Clinton 43%
A big win in an even state.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:36 PM
Response to Reply #7
24. I guessed 57 yesterday hope they round up lol
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bigdarryl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:03 PM
Response to Reply #1
8. 13 points my ASS these numbers look like a 58 to 42 WI primary
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JackORoses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 09:09 PM
Response to Reply #8
28. It's going to be a large margin of victory
Indies and Repubs made up 1/3 of the electorate and he won them 2 to 1.

That is 22% right there.
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ekwhite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 09:20 PM
Response to Reply #8
30. CNN and MSNBC are projecting 56% Obama - 43% Clinton
Based on exit polling with no precincts reporting at the moment. I am waiting for the official results myself, as exit polls have been known to be inaccurate before.
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:10 PM
Response to Reply #1
14. I think Obama wins by 15+.
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elocs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 07:57 PM
Response to Original message
2. Uh-oh! It doesn't look good for you-know-who.
I know I did my part today in La Crosse.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 07:57 PM
Response to Original message
3. That first time voter number I think will go up
A greater amount of students in Wisconsin are voting later on in the day. When classes are done, the ones who live off campus (including my ward) are voting now.
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Thepricebreaker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 07:59 PM
Response to Original message
4. If these numbers hold - she is going to get STEAMROLLED
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:00 PM
Response to Original message
5. Hey Hillary lovers: Who attacked unfairly? Hillary, Late deciders go to Obama
No plagiarism required.

Who Attacked Unfairly
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton did 54%
Obama did 34

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VolcanoJen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:03 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. If he pulls this out....
... the bright star in all of this is that Clinton's late negative hit turned people off.

And I happen to think that would be good for America, personally.
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:05 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. So do I.
We don't need another 6-9 months of her bullshit.
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Tatiana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:09 PM
Response to Reply #5
13. This will be the difference in those who made up their minds within the last week. n/t
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Exultant Democracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:18 PM
Response to Reply #5
19. Oh come on you know this doesn't count somehow, I'm sure we will find out why soon.
Edited on Tue Feb-19-08 08:20 PM by LeviathanCrumbling
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:20 PM
Response to Reply #19
22. The numbers don't lie (maybe)
If the results match. But the numbers on that question are clearly outside the MOE.
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Johnny__Motown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:01 PM
Response to Original message
6. This defiantly looks great for Obama
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4_Legs_Good Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:09 PM
Response to Original message
11. Holy Cr@p!
Thanks for posting.

I can start to breathe a little easier now.

Time to get fired up for Tejas and Ohio!

David
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:09 PM
Response to Original message
12. She's done. She has no edge. (this meant to be blunt truth, not personal)
Edited on Tue Feb-19-08 08:31 PM by Kristi1696
Not with women.

Not with union voters.

Not with voters without a college degree.


She has lost every group that used to be her "base".

These results are going to influence Texas and Ohio. The nomination is Obama's. I will say this now.
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:17 PM
Response to Reply #12
18. Shit, she even lost on the "economy"
She's finished.

Wow. Wisconsin. I wasn't expecting this.
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Glimmer of Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:10 PM
Response to Original message
15. Interesting. I am so anxious to see if this plays out.
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Johnny__Motown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:15 PM
Response to Original message
16. K&R
Just keeping this up near the top of the page
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NoBorders Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:16 PM
Response to Original message
17. Hmmm... Obama winning women
Not a good sign for Clinton.
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:18 PM
Response to Reply #17
20. Midwestern women are not Northeastern women.
They wouldn't listen.

Did you see the spread with men? :wow:
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Khaotic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:19 PM
Response to Original message
21. The Humanity!
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RUMMYisFROSTED Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:20 PM
Response to Original message
23. Economy: Good 10%, Bad 90%.
Johnny Ballgame in November.
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samdogmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:36 PM
Response to Original message
25. I'm a 50 yr old+ white woman and I have a wide circle of similar-aged friends.
We SHOULD be Hillary's "base". But, since last year, we've been lamenting about this "Base" because we didn't know a soul who supported Hillary. (And we're all long-time Democrats.) We were convinced her "edge" was a myth. Maybe it really was just manufactured! I know there are a few Wisconsin women on this board who support Hillary vigorously...but a "few" isn't enough to get her into the White House. I'm very superstitious and don't want to put the cart before the horse. God knows, we've been burnt badly during the past two national elections (2000 and 2004). But these early exit poll results (if accurate) confirm what I know about Wisconsinites! Thanks for posting!
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ORDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 08:44 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. K&R - Thanks for sharing your insights!
:kick: :kick: :kick:
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 09:02 PM
Response to Original message
27. Kick for supporting evidence.
:kick:
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CorpGovActivist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 09:10 PM
Response to Original message
29. K&R n/t
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