Rasmussen polls in PA and Oregon: Obama leads McPain by 9-10%, Hillary trails in both

[thesubstanceofdreams]

PA is a must win state for dems, and Obama's gap over Clinton (in the matchup against McPain) is well outside the MoE.

In Oregon (a supposedly blue state), Obama leads McPain by 9%, Hillary TRAILS by 3. This is a HUGE sign of alarm.

Edit for links: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_2008_presidential_election
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/oregon/oregon_2008_presidential_election

[graywarrior]

1. How can any democrat trail McCain?

[Avalux]

2. Clinton hate. Her nomination would rally Republicans to support McCain.

Don't underestimate the extent of their hatred for Hillary.

[SteelPenguin]

13. Also don't forget

There are plenty of independents who almost always vote for the Democratic candidate, who would never vote for Hillary. They're not on this board obviously, but I know a ton of them. People who think they're indpendent, really are fairly liberal, but have been so blinded by the propoganda of the past 20 years that they'd cut off their foot before they voted for Hillary.

And if given the option of one or the other, and they believe that they should vote, they'll end up voting for McCain because even though they disagree with his positions....He's not Hillary.

The numbers for these types of people is greater in the more conservative blue states like Pennsylvania, and they're the ones that could easily swing over to McCain thanks to the independent vote. McCain might not play as well in a deep red christian county in Alabama, but he'll play really really well in central PA.

[Avalux]

14. I don't think McCain can count on central PA.

At least not where I grew up; my dad and his buddies see McCain as just as bad as Bush or even worse. They voted for Bush but turned on him and now (believe it or not) are supprting Obama. This is a rural NRA crowd.

From your username and avatar, I can bet you're from PA. :hi:

[Perry Logan]

36. Not true. A Gallop poll shows Repubs would not rally against Hillary in great numbers.

[BeyondGeography]

6. The war vote obviously still hurts in places like OR, WA, MN and CO

Places where Obama is already very popular and where she will have to campaign very hard just to have a chance.

And, of course, there's the awful problem she has with men in the general. Once you get out of the Democratic Party, she just doesn't get them to vote for her.

[jaybeat]

8. That doesn't make any sense

Hillary wasn't anti-war ENOUGH, so I'm going to vote for McDrain, who has been MORE pro-war than George Bush???

Sorry, but Oregonians aren't THAT stupid.

And all of the rabid Hillary-haters are going to vote for McSame, anyway, chanting "Four more years! Four more years!"

And finally, "the awful problem she has with men in the general"????

That would be the awful problem that right-wing men have with HER. She' shown herself to be quite tolerant of them. After all, look who she married!

:rofl: :rofl:

[BeyondGeography]

11. Well. you tell me why she got beat by 2-to-1 margins by Obama

in MN, WA and CO. Doesn't mean those votes will automatically swing to McCain, but it does suggest many voters might just sit on their hands and not vote for either one.

It's called staying home. Ever hear of that, genius?

She loses to McCain among men by 57-39 in the last CNN poll. Sounds awful to me.

[jaybeat]

19. Sheesh! Lighten up!

And lay off the personal sarcastic attacks. Don't you think there's enough of that going around? Or are you perhaps part of the problem?

For starters, primary voters are not the same as GE election voters. So Hillary losing certain state primaries has no bearing on whether or not she'd carry those states in the GE. It also doesn't mean Obama would win them.

Plus, were any of those states open primaries? If so, then Repugs could vote in the Dem primary. Doesn't mean they vote for Obama (or any other Dem) in the GE.

"The latest CNN poll." Sheesh! Who cares? Polls by the MSM are routinely WAY off for all kinds of reasons. Are these likely voters? HOW many months before the GE? And surely NOTHING might change anyone's mind between now and then?

I'm not saying the poll *might* not be true. I'm objecting to your "explanation" that because anti-war voters don't think Hillary was sufficiently against the Iraq war, that they would vote for McCain instead, which makes about as much sense as saying they'll write in GWB for a third term!

Puh-leez!

[Yael]

33. Ask a Republican or Indie

"Which would you prefer -- stop the war or stop Hillary Clinton?"

Your answer lies in the priorities. Just because they may be against the war, they are against her with a greater intensity.

Her negatives are in the high 40s.

[bowens43]

10. Easily. In the eyes of most Americans, especially independants

and republicans (and many centrist democrats), Hillary lacks integrity and cares only about power. Other then the boy idiot, Hillary is easily the most hated politician in the country.

There is no possible way that she can beat McCain. If by hook or crook, she happened to, her presidency would be a disaster that would rivil that of Bush. Nothing that she would attempt to do would happen. Republicans would block every attempt she makes , whether or not they agree with her, They will block her because of who she is.

[jaybeat]

34. If they hate her that much...

Then maybe WE should help her kick some right-wing ASS, in November and beyond.

(Though, for the record, I remain undecided. It is just the idea that someone who now supports Obama would rather vote for McDrain than for Hillary makes me want to :puke:)

[babylonsister]

3. I don't put much stock in polls, especially, Rasmussen, but wow! nt

[Strelnikov_]

4. You now have me in a quandary . . .

McPain . . John McCave . . Crazy John

Just can't decide which one I think best describes him, but I am now leaning McPain. I mean, 100 more years of war . .

[thesubstanceofdreams]

5. I like McPain because he's painful and it's closest to his actual name n/t

[pathansen]

7. No one, except Clinton, has really said much against Obama yet

Democrats don't want other Democrats attacking him.

Yet, the GOP has a whole arsenal of attacks to use against him once he wins.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

9. May be yes, may be not

But trailing in two states that Kerry won in 2004 is NOT a good sign for Hillary. It is indeed deeply troubling.
And Obama has a 10% cushion in these states - the repug hate machinery may sway 5% of voters at most. In 2004 it was enough for them to win (or be close enough to steal it), but in many swing states Obama has a substantial lead which may withstand the smear machine.

[dempartisan23]

12. will we committ suicide and nominate clinton?

i am very concerned we will lose in november. we lost in 2000 and 2004. do we want to lose again after taking back congress?

[Robbins]

16. Obama

I have been saying he can beat Mccain,and Hillary can't.It's a big question of likability.Independents don't like Hillary.There are some Democrats who don't like Hillary.Mccain
Is seen as a maverick(we know that Is BS but many don't) and Obama unlike Hilary Is seen as believing what he says.And do I have to mention on Iraq while Mccain will say Obama wants to surrender he can also say about Hillary she was for It when It was popular and against It when It was not.

[BlueManDude]

15. Hillary Clinton is Walter Mondale 1984.

[A_Titanic_Mess]

17. Obama hypocrites

I posted a story from Yahoo last night on DU where a Rasmussen poll showed Clinton leading Obama in Ohio and Texas by double digits, but the DU Obama supporters pretty much said Rasmussen polls were a joke, yet here we are today with the DU Obama supporters quoting Rasmussen polls since it shows their candidate ahead. You can't have it both ways...hypocrites!!!

[thesubstanceofdreams]

18. I never said tha OH/TX polls were a joke

and I started this thread. Only if the same poster posted in both threads you could have a point, and only about those persons. We are all individuals here.

[ORDem]

21. I did criticize the TX Rasmussen poll, because it was taken of

only Democratic voters. Didn't include Indies and Repubs, where Obama pulls a lot of support. Sometimes you have to look under the covers on these polls to figure out if they're worth anything.

Besides, I wouldn't take much stock in ANY poll that's polling so far out and before both candidates have really hit the ground there. Time and again it's been shown that Obama closes the gap and more when the voters get a better look at him.

:Dem:

[LisaL]

31. Yea, republicans support him now.

When it comes time to vote for president, do you actually believe they will still vote for him? I don't.

[jaybeat]

35. But they won't in the fall. You're right. (nt)

[LisaL]

28. Exactly.

Hillary was leading in OH by 21 % and Obama supporters just said, well, Barack haven't started to campaign there yet.
So, hello.
The GE is far away.

[rug]

20. Clinton leads Obama by 16 in Pennsylvania.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

22. These are GE matchups

Hillary leads Obama in the primary (according to polls).
However, in the GE Obama has (according to this poll) a much greater chance to carry the state.
Two different issues.

[rug]

24. Obama won't be in the GE if he loses in PA.

And polls 9 months out are worthless.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

25. Completely false

Obama can very well win the primary even if he loses PA, even by 20 points. Most likely he will have the nomination all but wrapped up by the time PA votes.

And Polls 9 months out, even though not very reliable, are the only objective indicator we currently have. And when they CONSISTENTLY (across the country and persistently in time) indicate that Hillary has very little appeal among independents and very high negatives, one can't simply dismiss them as worthless.

[rug]

26. Well, then, according to the May 2007 polls Clinton has this thing wrapped up.

:woohoo:

[thesubstanceofdreams]

27. She had - unless something exceptional happened

And it happened.

[rug]

29. And it will.

It's called Pennsylvania.

[LisaL]

30. Oh right.

How exactly does that make sense?
He isn't doing as well as Hillary in primary, but he has better chance in GE?

[usregimechange]

23. Damn, you beat me... I wasted 1 of my 3

[AtomicKitten]

32. There it is.

Any more questions? Gobama!

[Perry Logan]

37. Yessir. How are you gonna get Hillary people to support your guy--after you've been such pricks?

[BzaDem]

38. GE Polls in Feb are worthless

Dukakis was anywhere from 12-18 points of ahead of HW depending on the poll during Feb-Mar of 1988. Kerry was 7-10 ahead during Feb-Mar of 2004. The unknown candidate is always ahead in these polls.