What's the Swing Area In Ohio?

[displacedyankeedem]

I've seen reports which say that as far as Florida goes, the race will be won and lost in the I-4 corridor between Daytona Beach, Orlando, and Tampa.

What's the comparable swing area in the Buckeye State? The I-71 Corridor between Columbus, Dayton, and Cincinnati?

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

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[NEOBuckeye]

11. I always thought Metro Canton was a little more Republican

Than Dem. Then again, last time I checked, Canton's city council is all Democratic. Only the city's Mayor is Republican. I guess the County itself could go either way.

[liberalnurse]

15. Jeff makes me proud to be

an Ohio Democrat! :yourock:

[jmaier]

2. Cincinnati isn't going Blue

but Montgomery County (Dayton) is a possibility -- went Blue with Clinton, Red with Reagan and Bush I.

[WilliamPitt]

3. I've always thought the southern portion of the state

was the swing area, i.e. red-leaning. Combine that with the urban/rural balancing act that seems to be everywhere.

[Toucano]

4. I think you're right, Will.

That's why they split the Democratic vote up when they redrew the congressional districts.

Many of the counties that border West Virginia have a fairly good democratic base, yet the are socially conservative. They swing based on the economy. Employment and trade issues are going to be big issues.

I don't know much about the northwest corner of the state, however. Maybe someone else will chime in about that region.

[Toucano]

5. Dupe

[dsc]

6. It is as much turnout as anything

Southern Ohio is largely Republican while Nothern Ohio is largely Democratic. Ohio's largest cities all have Democratic mayors (Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Toledo, Akron, Youngstown, Dayton, and Canton). The Appalacian counties, Strickland's district, are very important. Economic Democrats, social Republicans. I know that my area, very far Northeast Ohio, is in serious economic trouble and fed up with Bush. Kerry should have every shot of having a huge turnout and winning Ohio. He needs to win Cuyahoga County by 200,000 or more votes. He needs to win Mahoning County by over 50,000 votes. He needs to win Columbus and Cincy by a nice margin as well. These are all doable.

[NEOBuckeye]

12. Canton's Mayor is Republican

I just checked: Janet Weir Creighton. She won in November. :eyes:

So almost all of Ohio's "Great Eight" cities have Democratic Mayors.

[dsc]

16. sorry was using an old source

which was before Canton changed mayors.

[Lady President]

7. Central Ohio

Franklin Co. is probably going to determine Ohio. I've talked to Kerry staffers and ODP reps at length about the chances of winning Ohio and here's a summary:

1. Columbus is vital. Many people don't know that it's the biggest city in the state and the 15th biggest in the country. We have a Dem. mayor and all our city council members are Dems., but both our Congressional Reps. are Republican. We need to GOTV in the city and change the mind's of those in the suburbs.

2. Northern Ohio is likely solid for Kerry. They have been bleeding jobs.

3. Cincinnati, has a Dem. mayor, Luken, who has been supporting Kerry under the radar since early fall. Hamilton Co. will probably go Republican, but again, GOTV in the downtown area will be very important.

4. Southeastern Ohio which tends to get overlooked because there isn't a big city in the region, had a huge turnout for the primary. The counties in this area had the highest percentage of registered Dems. show up at the polls. The economy is awful there.

My guess is the election will be determined by the 3Cs (Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Columbus).

[ShaneGR]

8. Southeast corridor from Canton to Marietta & Franklin County

Franklin County being the state capitol of Colombus.

But really the truth is that if the Dems can GOTV in the NE and NW, there won't be any stopping us.

[TruthWins]

9. East Central Ohio, Including Stark County

As mentioned above, the biggest area of Ohio that voted for Clinton twice but then swung to Bush are the areas to the Southeast of Cleveland, near the Pennsylvania & West Virginia borders, with Stark County being the largest. Its biggest city is Canton, home to the Pro Football Hall of Fame (and I do believe Diebold is located in that county as well, my, my). The areas surrounding Stark to the East and South should also be inccluded there. If you looked at a map of Ohio, there is a pretty easily defined sweet spot there for Dems to target.

There are a couple of other hot spots, one near Toledo and one at the southernmost tip of Ohio, but neither offer the number of votes that the Eastern counties do.

[cmd]

10. I agree

I live in this area. It was always a Dem stronghold. It was close, but Bush took these counties the last time. Unemployment is a huge issue here. This is the battleground.

[NEOBuckeye]

13. Canton Metro and Columbus Metro, plus the SE Ohio Quadrant

Three very different areas, but Kerry shouldn't ignore any of them. As someone else said, Southeastern Ohio is easy to overlook for the lack of a distinct major city. I would suggest Athens and/or Marietta, however. They are small towns to be sure, but they would both make excellent stops on the campaign trail in that region of the state.

Canton, as I mentioned above, could go either way, for Kerry or for Bush. The city of Canton itself is now more Democratic than Republican. However, they do have a Republican mayor, who won in a very close election this past November. Canton's city council, however, is entirely made up of Democrats. Most of Canton's suburbs, as in many places, are still strongly Republican. Additionally, the rest of Stark County is still mostly rural, which tends to be conservative and votes Republican. You can bet that Bush will be making several stops in this area.

What Kerry can play on in Canton, however, is the fact that Stark County has seen virtually ZERO economic growth since the mid 1970s. Downtown Canton is a virtual ghost town -- at high NOON during the week. It's true that the cost of living in Canton-Stark is among the best in the state of Ohio. But a lot of good that is when you spend it at the pump for the hour drive to and from Cleveland everyday just to go to work. There just simply aren't any living wage jobs available there. Well, on second thought, there is DIEBOLD.

Columbus and Central Ohio in general are a stark (no pun intended) contrast to Canton and Stark county. The city of Columbus is now seven times what Canton's population was at its peak in the mid 1950s (116,000 Canton, 1950s), and is still growing (760,000+ Columbus 2004). That growth has had the beneficial side effect of shifting Columbus from a Republican town to a Democratic one. The Mayor of Columbus and all of its city council today are Democratic. The suburbs, however, are still very Republican and could still tilt the balance in favor of Bush.

Since Columbus has experienced the most stability and growth of all Ohio cities, compared to them, it has been able to somewhat weather the storm brought on by economic uncertainty and Bush's bad policies. I'm not sure, however, that the job picture looks so bleak there as compared to Northeastern Ohio (though perhaps one of my fellow Buckeyes down there can fill us in on the details). I think the best areas that Kerry could touch upon there would be Health Care and Homeland Security -- especially in light of the I-270 Sniper shootings.

In summary, Kerry is always welcome in Akron, Cleveland, Youngstown and Toledo. Northern Ohio is the state's Democratic stronghold. It would be a waste of time for Bush to spend his time here. However, he will go to Canton, Cincinnati, Dayton and Columbus. Kerry needs to at least target Columbus and Canton to win. At least, that's my take.

[ThirdWheelLegend]

14. I really don't think Dems should count on Ohio.

Kucinich will fight hard to get OH to go Dem, but besides the north half of the state voting Kerry to just get Bush out, I don't think the rest of the state will see enough in Kerry to convince them not to vote for their fearless leader.

:shrug:

TWL