The Republican cross-over phenomenon in the Virginia Democratic primary

[kwassa]

Question: how much of Obama's victory was helped by cross-over Republican votes?

From an online discussion:

Michael Shear
Washington Post National Political Reporter
Wednesday, February 13, 2008; 11:00 AM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2008/02/10/DI2008021002580.html

Virginia: Confession time! I was one of those mainly-votes-Republican Virginians who crossed over to vote for Obama. The thought of Sen. Clinton as president is unacceptable to me. In November I will vote for McCain, but would rather have Obama as president if McCain loses. In your opinion how common was this crossover dynamic in the Potomac Primaries, and how will it play out in such states as Texas?

Michael Shear: Why don't we start here. It's a great question about the crossover votes -- Republicans voting in a Democratic primary -- because it doesn't happen that often.

People who identify with one party rarely vote in the other one. I remember Democrats voted in a Virginia Republican primary on behalf of GOP Sen. John Warner. But that's the exception, not the rule.

We'll probably get better information as time goes on, but it appears that a huge number of Republicans did, indeed, vote in the Dem primary -- and most of them for Obama, perhaps for the reasons stated here.

The most dramatic statistic of the night was the turnout: Democratic turnout increased more than 100 percent in Virginia and was double the GOP turnout.

[LostinVA]

1. My Ex lives in VA still and she said five of her Republican coworkers voted Obama

Because they felt he would be easier to beat.

[BlackVelvet04]

4. Bingo.......

and they will not be voting for him in the G.E.

[LostinVA]

7. And that was in a blue area!

[BlackVelvet04]

19. I witnessed it myself....

9 out of 10 voters when I was voting were voting in the Democratic Primary. No way were they Democrats.

[Renew Deal]

9. Better in the primary than the general election.

Hillary will draw them all out in the GE.

[griffi94]

2. no

that's not why....southern white male repubs love obamas message of hope and change :sarcasm:

hell i'd bet that george maccaca voted for obama lol.....i think in all seriousness that this is the only logical explanation for the radical surge in democratic turnout....i could happen in texas as well...but i wouldn't expect any of the obama faithful to see it that way

[Benhurst]

21. I drove past a really rough tavern on the way home from Greenville, SC, this

afternoon, and all the patrons were outside sitting around tables, holding hands and singing Kumbyyah.

[griffi94]

23. jeezzzzuuussss

ya just made me spit on my keyboard....i have to claw at my eyes now :rofl:

[book_worm]

3. exit polls show Obama won 59% of the Dem vote in VA as well

it was an across the board victory.

[anamandujano]

8. Why do you all tout the great MARGIN of victory then?

[stahbrett]

11. lol - if the margin of victory was 59%-41%, it would still be a huge rout! (eom)

[stahbrett]

10. Great point that many are conveniently overlooking (eom)

Oh wait, some of those Democrats were black! They don't really count then.

[knowledgeispwr]

12. People seem to be forgetting that their obsession with Republican crossover

So even if it were purely democrats voting, it still would have been a thumping.

[MADem]

5. Gee, I was called everything shy of an asshole for pointing this out yesterday.

An Obama Precinct Captain SOLICITED crossovers in Nevada. Anything to win!

Cite: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/14/proobama-flier-urges-rep_n_81447.html



It's called Strategic Voting, and it is common in any election where one side has a nominee, and the other does not.

You vote FOR the weakest candidate--by voting OUT the strongest candidate.

[BlackVelvet04]

6. It's a trick as old as politics. n/t

[anamandujano]

13. I'm afraid our great turnouts everywhere can be attributed to this in part.

There are more of us than Repukes but it doesn't account for the huge difference in percentage of turnout.

[MADem]

17. "Democrats for a Day!!!" Not Hope and Change acolytes!

Of course, the Hope and Change crowd don't see it. They'll find out if their buddy makes it to the show, though--he'll go down in flames, and they'll attribute it to the WRONG "R" word--RACISM, instead of REPUBLICANS.

[theHandpuppet]

24. Well I've got you beat

I was called a racist for it. And I should know how the crossover vote works in Virginia -- I did it myself (ahem) in a GOP primary race.

[MADem]

32. That's pretty dispicable. Not surprising in this environment, but unfortunate for you.

Folks have written Master's Theses and PhD dissertations on the topic of Strategic Voting.

I guess the youngsters haven't been around long enough to study this in their PoliSci classes!

[QC]

31. Oldest trick in the book. Swung a gubernatorial election in Alabama in '86.

Amazing how few people here have ever heard of raiding the other party's primary.

[HeraldSquare212]

14. Other threads have said some Reps voted for HRC in Va.

Really, if Republicans were that organized and motivated to vote en masse for one Dem candidate, they wouldn't have to worry who the Dem nominee would be in the fall.

[George_Bonanza]

15. The Repugs are REALLY afraid of Clinton and her 50%+ negative rating

[griffi94]

20. they are in fact

afraid of her....that's why she's been bashed more than anybody in modern politics.....the repubs knew she was the one to beat...hell they never ever stopped the smears...even after bush took over....limbaugh and the other rw radio jocks slagged her all the way thru her first run for the senate...they repeated the mantra everyday...she couldn't win....people hated her.....she's too divisive.....she's a carpetbagger....she won in a landslide......they tried the same shit when her first term was up.....she'll be rejected ....she doesn't want the senate seat she's for the whitehouse...the voters won't stand for it...damn another landslide....if obama is all that and a bag of chips why do his supporters get so pissed that hillary won't drop out....they've been reduced to begging right here in these forums....pleading and imploring hillarys supporters to give up and admit that she can't win....i personally think that at the moment it's obamas to lose....but i think there's a better than even chance he will lose........

[theHandpuppet]

26. Their hatred of HRC is based largely on fear

She's the smart, powerful woman who became a symbol of all they fear and despise. Too bad so many Dems have fallen into the same old RW trap.

[griffi94]

28. i honestly believe that a lot of obama supporters

were bushbots until recently...and now that that side is losing...they're changing teams....their tactics...their message....even their language is the same.....they're not for bushies anymore but they are blinded by their rage against hillary.....should this be the case...i kind of hope obama does get the nomination....because if the obama groundswell fails in the ge....he's done forever and hillary can run again in 2012 against mccain...who by that time will be older than dirt

[Alhena]

16. The CNN exit poll showed 71% of Virginia Republicans voted Obama ...

out of those who participated in the Dem primary.

Good sign for Texas, where Republicans can vote in either primary.

[Benhurst]

22. That means they probably think he is the easier of the two to beat.

It doesn't necessarily mean they are right.

[theHandpuppet]

27. Be careful what you wish for

Because a LOT of those crossover votes won't be there in November. I used to live in Virginia and I know the strategy behind crossover voting.

[OHdem10]

18. Mary Hamm, regular contributor on ORelly explains her vote

for Clinton. She indicated she believed John McCain would get the
votes he needed.( She is Republican) So I decided to vote On the
Left Side. "I voted for Hilary because I thought she would make
a better President than Obama. Obama seems to be more liberal
than Hilary." Since Mary H. will vote for McCain in GE.

[Straight Shooter]

25. This just goes to prove you can't trust Republicans, no matter how often Obama sings Kumbaya. n/t

[Hav]

29. .

"The thought of Sen. Clinton as president is unacceptable to me. In November I will vote for McCain, but would rather have Obama as president if McCain loses."

The second sentence should have been highlighted as well if one highlights the first.
I guess it has more to do with them hating Hillary Clinton so much than it is about pushing the weaker candidate. Because at the moment, most polls suggest that Obama would do way better against McCain than Hillary.

[Mike Daniels]

30. The difference between this primary and the Warner primary is that

Dems crossed over to vote for Warner in part as a way of thanking him for torpedoing Oliver North's run at the Senate.

The only reason the Warner v. Warner election was as close as it was is because there was significant crossover of Republicans voting for Mark Warner to order to spite John Warner since they weren't able to defeat him in the primary.

I have a feeling that the majority or Republicans crossing over to Obama weren't doing so because they saw him as the better candidate but rather they see him as easier to beat in the main event. If they really thought Obama was the better candidate for the general election wouldn't their vote be better used by voting in the Republican primary in order to the weaker of Huckabee/McCain into the GE?

[kwassa]

33. kick