How was Clinton doing against Dole early on back in 1996?

[jenk]

I think Dole had the nomination wrapped up at about the same time Kerry did.

Is it normal for Bush to be down 7-9 points at this point?

[lancdem]

1. Not normal at all

Clinton was ahead of Dole in '96. Both Clinton and Reagan actually trailed their challengers at one point in the year BEFORE the election, but never during the year OF the election.

[DIKB]

2. ^^

That does my heart good to hear that.

[ps1074]

3. No, it is not normal

I recently red a post somewhere on the blogosphere where they showed a graph comparing approval ratings for presidents going for reelection. Here is the graph:

http://www.radiofreemonkey.com:8080/charts/img_compare_approval.gif

Take a close look at the graphs of Carter, Bush Sr and Bush Jr. They all follow the same path. Two of them ended defeated. Junior will join them.

On the other hand take a look at the graphs for Nixon, Reagan and Clinton. They had their lows during the first term but by this time in their presidencies, they got higher and higher approvals. The three of them got reelected.

Just take a look at the graph. It will make you feel good :)

[jenk]

8. no wonder Bush came out of the gate with lying attack ads

The Chimp is getting desperate in MARCH!

Clinton and Reagan had steady rises in the polls as the election drew closer, Bush is tumbling yet again with the Saddam capture bump completely gone!

[Beetwasher]

9. That Graph Says It All

Notice how Clinton and Reagan both reached their low points months before the point we're at now and were steadily moving upward at this point. Bush is still moving steadily and decidedly downward.

[The Magistrate]

4. It Is Grotesquely Abnormal, Mr. Jenk

President Clinton was ahead of Sen. Dole by figures in the low double digits. Ir is extraordinary for an incumbent to be this far behind a challenger this early, and that is generally an indication the incumbent will lose. Incumbents have been known to lose a lead as a campaign progresses, but it is almost unheard of for them gain one they did not begin with.

"We was waist deep in the Big Muddy and the big fool said to push on."

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[Caromill]

5. Clinton was ahead by 15 points

I looked this up recently.

[lancdem]

7. I didn't realize his lead was that big

I knew it was sizable during much of the summer and fall.

BTW, that graph is great. Did you guys see how low Reagan's approval was during his last few years, because of Iran-Contra? He was much less popular than Clinton during their respective second terms.

[Beetwasher]

10. Clinton Was Most Definitely a More Popular President

than Reagan. That's just not the propoganda you here though...

[jenk]

6. Dole

If I remember correctly, I think the closest Dole ever got to Clinton was 6-7 points after the GOP convention. After that it went back to a 8-12 point lead for Clinton and he ended up winning by 9.