I hear that Ohio has early voting that started on Feb 4.-Implications?
I hear that Ohio has stared early voting and that it started on February 4th. Does this automatically give Hillary a structural advantage in Ohio of 5-10 points or since the national polls are tied now, would Ohio's early voting not have the same disadvantages to Obama that California did.
Obama did better than expected on Febuary 5th. The interval would have very little of the time period when HRC was a prohibitive favorite - I think California went back into December!
Imagine a counter situation - Obama wins today and wins HI and WI next week - then there will have been a 10 dsy period starting last Saturday where Obama is surging and happy and HRC somewhat dispirited and facing questions of whether the once inevitable nomination is slipping away. Also, Obama surrogates get the high ground opinion on the supperdelegates (that they should not up end the people's choice) and Clinton's forced to argue that they help keep the people in the party from picking a candidate who can't win (nice and elite). Then imagine something changes and HRC starts to recover - she then is the one hurt by the votes for most of this period.
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