Game on, or game over? Some observations from Virginia

[cali]

by teacherken
Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:51:03 AM PST

I live in Arlington, a heavily Democratic County in the 8th CD (Moran) of Virginia Today, as is my wont, I showed up to vote in my precinct (Woodlawn) about 5 minutes before the polls opened at 6 AM. I was the 18th person on line, whereas normally I am in the first 5-10 voters. By the time I voted, 15 of the people before me had voted in the Democratic primary and only two in the Republican. By the time I left at 6:10, the line was upt to 55 voters. Let me assure you that for a primary this is heavy early voting in our precinct.

I drove around the precinct and two adjacent precincts looking for signage - on lawns and on median strips. And the results were one sign for Huckabee (on a median strip), none for McCain or Clinton, and about a dozen for Obama.

Below the fold I will offer a few more observations and a bit of analysis.

teacherken's diary :: ::
Our precinct is in an elementary school that serves both a black neighborhood (High View Park) and and white neighborhood (Waycroft-Woodlawn, for whose community organization I have served on the board). Normally our early voters are almost exclusively white. Out of the fifty plus who had voted or were on line by the time I left, it was 20% African-American.

If I look at the endorsements of local officials, almost all who had supported Edwards are now supporting Obama. Thus we have all 5 members of the school board and three of the five of the County Board on team Obama. The Constitutional officers and General Assembly members do not split quite as heavily for Obama. All three Virginia Congressmen have endorsed Obama, as have two of the last three Democratic Governors (Mark Warner is officially neutral, but he used some of Obama's phraseology at the JJ Dinner on Saturday and his wife Lisa Collis is co-chair of Women for Obama Virginia).

I am on mailing lists for both campaigns. Thus I know there are multiple hdqtrs for Obama around Virginia, whereas Clinton is running her effort from her national hdqtrs, which is about a mile from my house in the Ballston section of Arlington, near the metro stop.

So what do I think will happen? I have seen no closure in the local polling. SUSA has kept it around a 20-22 point margin in VA, and 21-23 in MD (there is no polling in DC of which I am aware). Some of the others (Mason-Dixon, for example) have the difference somewhat narrower (around 15) perhaps because they do not push leaners as hard. But there is a consistent pattern - Clinton does not reach 40%. And given that for all practical purposes she is an incumbent, I would expect undecideds to break heavily in the other direction. Predictions in primaries are always dicey. It is cold today, it may rain or snow in parts of the region. Still, I expect a heavy turnout, and would think the lower end of Obama's margin in the two states is 18%, and conceivable could reach 25. In DC it will be a blow-out: the margin will be better than 2-1, and it is not inconceivable that Obama could reach 70%.

<snip>
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/12/62711/4949/574/455060

I hope teacherken's analysis is spot on!

[theHandpuppet]

1. Cali, Obama has been expected to take Virginia by a large margin

In addition, horrible weather in the western portion of the state will depress Hillary's numbers in an area where she is strong. So maybe I'm missing something here but I don't quite understand what you're getting at.

[cali]

4. Did you read the whole thing? I'm not really trying to get at anything

I just thought that it was an interesting on the ground report/analysis.

[theHandpuppet]

5. Yes, believe or not, I did read it -- sheesh.

But it didn't tell me much I didn't expect so I thought there might be another point I was missing, that's all.

[bluerum]

2. Had a similar experience at my polling place in MA last week. Not a blow out

but a line was formed before the doors were unlocked on a wet rainy Tuesday morning.

Clinton won the majority 56% and 55 delegates to big the O's 41% and 38 delegates. Remember that Kennedy and Kerry had come out and endorsed Obama the week before the primary election. (I voted for Edwards even though he had withdrawn)

Should be interesting.

On edit: I suppose by todays standards 56/41 is a blowout,,,

[dmallind]

3. My wife's report from the NE caucus was similar

Except in mechanics of course. Given the low cost of housing in the area we bought in one of Lincoln's most prosperous neighborhoods (in Arlington I'd be in a shack), and given the wealth in the area and general conservatism in NE it was not, in 06 at least, a hotbed of Democratic activism. Given that there was no 06 caucus of course, we could only rely on comments from the neighbors and yard signs - which were predominantly Republican even then when Bush's idiocy was well known in most of the land.

This time though she mentioned a strong showing - even a plurality - of Obama signs and bumper stickers in this toney area, and reported that the turnout at the Dem caucus was far greater than old hands had seen before. Even though she went for Clinton herself, she reported the Obama contingent was about twice the size (I checked the results and it was actually closer to 3 times) and very enthusiastic.

I am fighting hard in my usual (at least intended to be) rational and objective bent to avoid the personality-driven aspects of Obama's campaign and support. There is no denying of course that this is a man of uncommon personal magnetism but I can't shake the concern that this is a fungible asset so I am intentionally more skeptical of this undeniable advantage than I normally would be, but it's getting harder and harder to be cynical about this almost ubiquitous wave of enthusiasm in very unlikely areas. When he can get that kind of support and enthusiasm in a privileged and to be honest a bit insular upscale neighborhood in one of the reddest states, it can't possibly be a bad thing for the GE. If nothing else it will perhaps give him some shielding from the inevitable onslaught in the GE should he come through. People are reluctant to change initial impressions of public figures and I can't recall too many who had such a good initial impression to change.

[pdxmom]

6. I was talking to my mom yesterday, who is voting in a primary for the

first time ever today (she's 70). She never felt like the primaries mattered before, but today, she and my dad are getting out there to vote Obama. She told me that in Virginia, the polls are busy in the morning, instead of in the evening, like most places. She is in Northern Virginia, and she assumes that the reason for that is the number of commuters into D.C. who can't get home before the polls close, so they go before work.

I'll try to check in with her later today and see how it was.

[cali]

7. hey, thanks for the report.

My 86 year old Mom voted for Obama in CT where she's long been involved in CT politics. She's been to 5 national conventions as a delegate. I was sure she'd vote for Hillary as she's been a long time admirer, but she decided on Obama in part because she feared a repeat of the melodrama of the 90s.

[pdxmom]

8. My folks' issue is education. Both of them are heavily involved in

educational organizations in the state and they strongly support Obama's education policies. They, too, don't want to see the "same old" continue.