Puerto Rican Poll Power

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Leaving aside that it's Michael Barrone, a very provocative piece. (Katzenkavelier is a smart Obama supporter who knows a lot about Puerto Rico and says that Hillary is favored there, and says that the caucus is de facto winner-take-all. Otherwise, I might not have posted this, not being in a position to personally weigh Barrone's two main assertions in the piece)

Puerto Rican Poll Power

The following thought occurred to me while preparing for my stint on Fox News on Super Tuesday evening. The Democratic nomination may be determined by the delegation from Puerto Rico.

The delegates will be chosen, technically at least, in a caucus in early June. Puerto Rico has 63 delegates to the Democratic convention, more than similarly sized South Carolina (54), Oklahoma (45), or Connecticut (60). The Democrats, in line with their traditions of welcoming and celebrating minorities, have long given Puerto Rico about as many delegates as it would get if it were a state, while the Republicans long gave it only a few delegates and today give it somewhat fewer delegates proportionately.

But one group of 63 delegates is more equal than another. Democratic delegates are supposed to be allocated by proportional representation. But that notion is alien to highly competitive Puerto Rican politics. In practice, the dominant figure in Puerto Rico identifying with the Democratic Party has seen to it that his faction gets all the territory’s delegates. This was true of Govs. Carlos Romero Barcelo and Pedro Rosello of the New Progressive Party (PNP) as well as Gov. Rafael Hernandez Colon of the Popular Democratic Party (PPD). PPD politicians almost always identify with mainland Democrats (an exception was Sila Calderón, governor from 2000 to 2004, who identified with neither party and concentrated, successfully, on persuading Congress and the Bush administration to close the artillery range on Vieques Island). It’s not clear to me at this distance whether the current governor, Aníbal Acevedo of the PPD, will have similar clout. He’s at odds with Rosello, and the legislature is in the hands of the PNP. But if Acevedo doesn’t determine who gets Puerto Rico’s 63 votes, someone else will. And they aren’t likely to be proportionately distributed.

This means that Puerto Rico is likely to have more leverage in Democratic National Convention votes than any single state, no matter how large. Its leader will be able to deliver a 63-vote margin for the leading candidate. Compare the delegate margins deliverable by the winning candidates in the largest states that have had contests, using realclearpolitics.com delegate counts:


winner /loser /difference
Puerto Rico 63 0 63
California 101 59 42
New York 127 87 40
Florida 0 0 0
Illinois 79 27 52
Michigan 0 0 0
Georgia 45 22 23
New Jersey 51 37 14

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/2/6/puerto-rican-poll-power.html

[Tom Rinaldo]

1. I didn't know that Puerto Rico was winner take all in their Caucus

That chart makes a pretty powerful statement. If Clinton wins there she will pick up a larger net delegate gain from Puerto Rico than she did from New York and New Jersey combined.

I have to add Peurto Rico to my list of important late contests.

[Thrill]

2. Randi said last week it was going to come down to PR

[Tom Rinaldo]

3. Here is more info on how it works down there:

The delegates will be chosen, technically at least, in a caucus in early June. Puerto Rico has 63 delegates to the Democratic convention, more than similarly sized South Carolina (54), Oklahoma (45), or Connecticut (60). The Democrats, in line with their traditions of welcoming and celebrating minorities, have long given Puerto Rico about as many delegates as it would get if it were a state, while the Republicans long gave it only a few delegates and today give it somewhat fewer delegates proportionately.

But one group of 63 delegates is more equal than another. Democratic delegates are supposed to be allocated by proportional representation. But that notion is alien to highly competitive Puerto Rican politics. In practice, the dominant figure in Puerto Rico identifying with the Democratic Party has seen to it that his faction gets all the territory’s delegates. This was true of Govs. Carlos Romero Barcelo and Pedro Rosello of the New Progressive Party (PNP) as well as Gov. Rafael Hernandez Colon of the Popular Democratic Party (PPD). PPD politicians almost always identify with mainland Democrats (an exception was Sila Calderón, governor from 2000 to 2004, who identified with neither party and concentrated, successfully, on persuading Congress and the Bush administration to close the artillery range on Vieques Island). It’s not clear to me at this distance whether the current governor, Aníbal Acevedo of the PPD, will have similar clout. He’s at odds with Rosello, and the legislature is in the hands of the PNP. But if Acevedo doesn’t determine who gets Puerto Rico’s 63 votes, someone else will. And they aren’t likely to be proportionately distributed.
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/2/6/puerto-rican-poll-power.html

[Araxen]

4. Nothing against the people of PR

but become a state please first. They shouldn't have that many delegates. I'm afraid to say the repubs have it right on their end. We should be putting carrots in front of PR to become a state and not just let them be the status quo.

[Sapphocrat]

6. "Become a state first"? Before what?

You mean before we let them vote in a primary? That would be like telling Guam, the Virgin Islands, American Samoa, et al, they can't vote either.

And why shouldn't PR "have that many delegates"? Because it's not a state? If you want to penalize them for that by giving them fewer delegates than are rightfully theirs, that's like saying every Puerto Rican is worth only, say, two-thirds of a "real" citizen.

You sure you want to go down that road?

[TheDonkey]

5. That would be both ironic and horrible if the election all comes down to PUERTO RICO

Love PR but REALLY!?!

[thevoiceofreason]

7. This is one really whacked out site/thread