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Edited on Mon Feb-11-08 05:27 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
These are the 11 States where Kerry and Bush were within 5% in 2004.
Applying results and current CW predictions, there's a Hillary advantage in the States a candidate need to actually win a Presidential election.
This is not presented to demonstrate a real advantage for either candidate. You can argue how Barack would do in Michigan, or how close some of the primaries have been, or whatever...
This is presented to show that since the most straightforward, least tortured method of addressing the question "which States matter?" results in a clear Hillary advantage, maybe everyone ought to stop playing these "who wins where it counts" games and accept if one is trying to be honest, rather than force a result through sophistry, that it's probably too close and too intrinsically inexact a question to bother arguing about.
Wisconsin, Kerry, 0.38% - ??? Iowa, Bush, 0.67% - OBAMA New Mexico, Bush, 0.79% HILLARY/OBAMA practical tie New Hampshire, Kerry, 1.37% - HILLARY Ohio, Bush, 2.11% - HILLARY Pennsylvania, Kerry, 2.50% - HILLARY Nevada, Bush, 2.59% - HILLARY Michigan, Kerry, 3.42% - HILLARY Minnesota, Kerry, 3.48% - OBAMA Oregon, Kerry, 4.16% - OBAMA Colorado, Bush, 4.67% - OBAMA Florida, Bush, 5.01% - HILLARY
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Added on edit, a reply from below expanding the list, and adressing the question of how applicable 2004 is to 2008:
The 5% range is a good swing state indicator as any arbitrary cut-off. 2004 isn't 2008, but we are not likely to see gigantic 10% party swings in only four years. For instance, Kerry won CA by less than 10%, and nobody considers CA a swing state. Hawaii and New Jersey are not swing states.
But here are the states that were between 5% and 10% in 2004... as you can see, Obama's advantage, such as it is, in this set of states is found in safe blue states... Deleware, Maine, Hawaii, etc.
The only possible Bush swing state here that Obma will win big in the primary is Virginia. Hillary counters that with her big win in Arkansas, as another potential pick-up. One can argue that Obama would run stronger in Missouri in Novemeber, and he very well might, but the Democratic primary there was a tie.
It's all very close stuff.
New Jersey, Kerry, 6.68% - HILLARY Washington, Kerry, 7.18% - OBAMA Missouri, Bush, 7.20% - HILLARY/OBAMA practical tie Delaware, Kerry, 7.60% - OBAMA Virginia, Bush, 8.20% - OBAMA Hawaii, Kerry, 8.75% - OBAMA Maine, Kerry, 8.99% - OBAMA Arkansas, Bush, 9.76% - HILLARY California, Kerry, 9.95% - HILLARY
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