This is
Pledged Delegates only, no Supers. Not a prediction as such. For amusement, I went through the primary calendar making somewhat informed guesses, by still guesses, week-by-week, and running a tally. I favored Obama for the most part, assuming blow-outs in places like Oregon and Mississippi, caucuses in general, midwest and mountain west, etc., and presumed healthy, but not crushing Clinton wins in the big three.
I came up with Obama: 1728 / Clinton: 1691, which I'm calling even. (God only knows what my personal margin of error is! I only did this once and didn't double check math or anything.)
If the starting totals of 986-924 don't include today, then Obama would have the guesstimate lead.
Just scratch-pad stuff, but it's fun. Give it a try.
Here's a Good Primary Calendar:
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/democraticprimaries/index.html___________
___________
As of Today:
Obama: 986
Clinton: 924
Tuesday, February 12 (237)
District of Columbia Primary 37 delegates
Maryland Primary 99 delegates
Virginia Primary 101 delegates
Obama: 1136
Clinton: 1011
Tuesday, February 19 (121)
Hawaii Caucus 29 delegates
Wisconsin Primary 92 delegates
Obama: 1206
Clinton: 1062
Tuesday, March 4 (444)
Ohio Primary 161 delegates
Texas Primary 228 delegates
Rhode Island Primary 32 delegates
Vermont Primary 23 delegates
Obama: 1390
Clinton: 1322
Saturday, March 8
Wyoming Caucus 18 delegates
Obama: 1403
Clinton: 1327
Tuesday, March 11
Mississippi Primary 40 delegates
Obama: 1431
Clinton: 1339
Tuesday, April 22
Pennsylvania Primary 188 delegates
Obama: 1478
Clinton: 1440
Saturday, May 3
Guam Other 9 delegates
Obama: 1483
Clinton: 1444
Tuesday, May 6 (218)
Indiana Primary 84 delegates
North Carolina Primary 134 delegates
Obama: 1592
Clinton: 1553
Tuesday, May 13
West Virginia Primary 39 delegates
Obama: 1608
Clinton: 1576
Tuesday, May 20 (125)
Kentucky Primary 60 delegates
Oregon Primary 65 delegates
Obama: 1673
Clinton: 1636
Tuesday, June 3 (47)
Montana Primary 24 delegates
South Dakota Primary 23 delegates
Obama: 1708
Clinton: 1654
Saturday, June 7
Puerto Rico Caucus 63 delegates
Obama: 1728
Clinton: 1691
Here's a Good Primary Calendar:
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/democraticprimaries/index.html