Obama doesn't have anything wrapped up with this (expected) string of wins

[bigtree]

Hillary Clinton is keeping pace with him (although behind in pledged (voted) delegates) and should have an excellent opportunity to make up the difference, perhaps surpass these 100 or so delegate lead Obama has now (I think he's at about 30-50 delegates ahead of Clinton. I've heard the expectations from his supporters about 'momentum, which is supposed to overcome the polling lead Clinton has maintained in these big states all along. I think that expectation is over blown. I don't expect Texas or Ohio to pay much attention to what the eastern states of Md. or Va. are doing with their votes, for instance. After that (and some smaller opportunities for delegates), it's on to delegate rich Pennsylvania, which has a closed primary (no repukes or indies) where Clinton is favored to win.

All of the crowing about Obama's couple week dust-up is just wind. This race should go back to nearly even in the months ahead. There will be debates in-between to influence the races. AGES of time to go. No need for Clinton supporters to fret about this Obama bump.

[Kittycat]

1. Oh look. Another Drive By. Filled with Supporting Links and Fact-Based Commentary

[paulk]

7. you are referring to your own post?

[Kermitt Gribble]

19. ...

:rofl:

[bigtree]

9. on an opinion board. shocking.

I'm a regular here. No one has ever complained that I won't stay and debate or defend my posts. If there's something inaccurate I've said here. . . ?

[Kittycat]

49. And I'm somehow NOT a regular?

My profile isn't hidden, you can see how long I've been around.

I'm sick of slam posts. Do you have anything of real interest to discuss, or do you just care to continue berating?

[bigtree]

50. You are the one who made the characterization of ME

I'm simply defending myself. You came on to this thread and called it a 'drive-by' and questioned my candor. You are in no position to call this a 'slam post'. You came on to this thread to ridicule. Now, you've taken another shot. Why don't YOU address the substance of the OP instead of making these character judgments?

[Caseman]

59. Buuuuuuurrrrrrrnnnnn...

Bigtree served you!

[Bicoastal]

2. If Obama fired his campaign manager in the middle of a primary...

...I WOULD be worried.

[bigtree]

11. Maggie Williams will do just fine. Thanks for your concern.

[Occam Bandage]

15. Her employer, on the other hand...

[bigtree]

21. and you, checking in with your own concern

how nice

[Occam Bandage]

64. I have no concern. I would be very pleased if that happened.

[paulk]

3. I'm certainly not fretting

Considering that very few of the remaining contests are caucuses Hillary is in very good position. Obama still has to show that he can win a large state primary (outside of the obvious southern states and his home state) to have a serious shot at this.

[long_green]

10. it's good you put that caveat there in the parentheses

because Tuesday would look an awful lot like a big win.

[paulk]

24. people do pay attention to things like that

and the effect on the general election. What do Obama's wins in state's we won't win in the GE really signify? Will his domination of the black vote in the south translate into anything meaningful in the GE? Are caucus wins as valuable as primary wins when it comes to predicting how a state will vote in the GE?

These are important considerations...

[long_green]

33. "we?"

I was almost poking fun at you with my first post. This race is to the end but make no mistake, HRC will, as a result of results like Tuesday's, have to come from behind. That's not a bad thing, but it will be the reality she and her supporters will face Wed. morning. That's a reality that most Americans react to by running to #1, even if they were with #2.
As long as they're cool with that, her campaign will be in good shape.

[paulk]

58. "we" as in Democratic Party

[grantcart]

4. Most Hillary supporters are in Stage IV Bigtree cannot get by stage III

Stage I When you do not have the best position on the war - prevaricate

Stage II When you do not have the clear voice of leadership - triangulate

Stage III When you do not have the momentum - trivialize the election just lost

Stage IV When you do not have anywhere to go - instigate a smear on the supporters as unthinking cultists

Stage V When the supporters embrace the slur and turn it around - start backing up the dump truck and release a load
against the leader who has sparked a fire across the country.

Stage VI When this desperate tactic is reviled - step aside as the great locomotive of history barrel by you turn to watch history pass you by.

We are about to pass out of the Stage III. It had no traction. These Obama followers took a cue from their leader and rather than casting aspersions on the followers of Clinton simply stated: Cultists = Yes we are and by embracing the absurd made the charge even more ridiculous than it was.

[Kittycat]

8. I love this post

:lol:

[grantcart]

31. it makes it easy whenever they bring up the bs about the cults lol

[bigtree]

35. yet, I've repeatedly denounced those characterizations of the Obama campaign.

I've seen more posts from supporters of Obama lately, calling themselves a cult. I'm lost on it, but I maintain my objection to the cult-calling.

[grantcart]

46. thank you for that. The reason that they call themselves a cult

is to show that by taking the insult on as a compliment they take the sting out of it.

[bigtree]

14. blah blah blah

If you had some other candidate than Sen Obama I would grant you these points of contention, but he's no jewel on these issues either. I think you know that.

[grantcart]

37. what I know is that the tongue in cheek reply I posted is a copy

of a post that was made sometime ago and comes in very handy because the Clinton folks have fallen into such a predictable pattern. Want to have an intelligent discussion fine but to do so you will have to stay away from:

1) Misrepresenting her war views

2) Trivializing Obama's election wins

3) Trying to slur his supporters on the fact that they really like him.

Think about it start an interesting thread and we can have a discussion. Until then you are just embarassing yourself. Blah blah blah by the way is not an argument. Making patronizing statements like, "I think you know that". Elevate the debate or embarass yourself, its your decision.

(And yes I know that in the absence of anything else your reflex will be to find some unsubstantiated mud to throw at Senator Obama. We are waiting for it and we are ready. In the meantime please tell you candidate to release her tax returns before the primary is over and not after. If it is good enough for her to show the Republicans and Independents its good enough for you and me.)

By the way Obama 57% Clinton 42% with 40% reporting in Maine. Obama takes another 'useless state'.

[bigtree]

41. you are, of course, entitled to your own view

but, characterizing mine with your own bias doesn't require my participation.

[grantcart]

44. again words but no argument. all you can do is trivialize Obama's victories

you offer nothing compelling about your candidate. Your analysis of the election is without any substance and is not supported by any commentator of any stature in any media outlet.

So go ahead and participate in your own views. I would be extremely interested in reading any informed observer that considers the election victories of Senator Obama as meaningless.

I do not think that Senator Clinton considers them meaningless or they would not be accepting the resignation of the campaign chairperson today.

[bigtree]

51. the delegate counts, with Hillary taking a share, are not enough to lock up the race for him

That's not an exaggeration. Those are the numbers. And, the thrust of this post was for Clinton supporters who may be discouraged by the Obama wins. Not everything is directed at your campaign.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

5. How many primaries does Obama need to win by 30-40% before you no longer consider it a "bump"?

Just wondering.

[bigtree]

20. Next week, in the 'Potomac primaries', there are 175 delegates at stake.

CNN has Obama up 971 to Clinton's 915. That's no blowout.
(http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/candidates/#val=1918)

I remember the Obama camp saying they'd be good if they pulled to within 100 points of Clinton after Super Tuesday. I think that's about where Clinton should be after the Potomac primaries, between 50 to 100 delegates down from Obama.

After that, come the races in Texas (228 delegates), Ohio (161), Rhode Island (32), and Vermont (23), with a few small delegate count states holding contests in-between.

With Clinton favored to win in Texas and Ohio, we could be almost even again by Pennsylvania (188 delegates. Closed primary) on 4/22.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

6. predictable wins at that, some of them meaningless

[cali]

18. none of them are meaningless, mucky

all of them mean delegates, and each win moves the MSM spin cycle in Obama's direction.

[stahbrett]

22. "predictable wins" is another way of saying "wins", correct?

Does it matter if it's predicted, and when it's predicted? Polls from not long ago predicted Hillary would win the vast majority of Super Tuesday elections.

I'm predicting Obama will win the nomination - so if that becomes true, does it mean the win doesn't matter?

[bigtree]

25. we are counting delegates here

and he's definitely not running away with this with these smaller delegate opportunities. He's still spitting the delegates in these states with Clinton, although, of course at a larger share. That split, however, keeps Clinton at pace until the bigger, more decisive contests.

[stahbrett]

29. Hasn't he had larger wins over Clinton than she's had over him? (n/t)

[bigtree]

34. well, she took California, New York. New Jersey, Massachusetts,

I think Obama does well where the demographics favor him, as in the southern states with high numbers of blacks voting , and in these caucus states where he's, admittedly better organized. But, it's hard to ignore these larger prizes which elevated Clinton's total, despite a larger number of states won by Obama.

[blm]

12. Obama doesn't have a string of moves protecting Poppy Bush and Jackson Stephens

either.

Hillary does - and so does Bill.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/31/21045/9822/688/446786

[bigtree]

38. spamming, dear?

I don't think any of that will be decisive in the weeks ahead.

[blm]

43. Dare I ask....why do YOU support this type of governance? Especially given the

consequences?

[bigtree]

45. I don't think Obama has what it takes to win

I explained all of that in my endorsement of the Clinton campaign, after Edwards dropped out. We need to regain the WH for ANY of your concerns to even see daylight from the republican-infested justice system. I know you think YOu're the ONly one who could POSSibly care about these things. I just think they will be irrelevant to the present contest. Is there an indictment or official investigation or something I can get behind? Not likely, huh?

[blm]

48. You want the protection of Bushes to continue? I disagree with you about

what it takes to win.

I think McCain wins if Hillary is the nominee because he will get the Independent vote going away. Especially since he and Hillary stayed on the same page reIraq from 2002-2007.

McCain will come across as the more ethical candidate in that race, too.

[bigtree]

53. I don't think Obama has indicated that he cares about thse issues you've raised, in the least.

Maybe you can point me to where he's signed on to these investigative reports.

McCain, the most ethical??? Good luck with that, friend.

[blm]

54. Keating was a small PART of BCCI - Clinton CAN'T raise that can she without

directing attention to what Bill did about that outstanding matter.

And Obama is for open government. And he has open government lawmakers like Kerry on his side - that matters to those of us who know how long Kerry has wanted to get into those documents.

BTW - do you think Obama would say ANYTHING about those matters openly? I doubt he's very familiar with them, but I do expect he will be brought up to speed eventually - because he is surrounding himself with the BEST ADVISORS available.

Clinton has...................Bill.... and Bill does what Poppy Bush tells him to do.

[bigtree]

55. You can dream

I guess

[blm]

56. It's more LIKELY to happen with President Obama in the oval office listening to John Kerry

and we know it WON'T happen with Hillary there.

So what SHOULD one work for given the reality?

[bigtree]

61. I'm advocating for the candidate I believe is the most electable

I will be working for whoever achieves the nomination.

[blm]

65. And I am fighting FOR the one who respects me as a CITIZEN deserving of open government

And I will FIGHT like a wolverine against another decade of closed government. This nation can't AFFORD it.

[Occam Bandage]

13. Most candidates do not willingly lose several weeks' worth of primaries. Expected, yes,

but still extremely damaging.

[bigtree]

27. I think the 'damage' is overblown. There will be 'frontrunner' dynamics

which don't always favor a candidate with this much time to go in the race.

[MethuenProgressive]

16. He won what he was expected to this time,

so no calls of "fraud!" will be heard from the Obamas.

[Hailtothechimp]

17. I beg to differ.

I think the game all along was to ride the "inevitablity" theme to Super Tuesday, at which point the nomination would be secured and the $5 million dollar loan wouldn't look so bad.

But that's not how it turned out, is it?

Rather than having some "downtime" leading up to the convention, Team Hillary (with a new captain, I might add) is still on the field. And worse, they're severely outgunned (which means money) and out organized. It wasn't supposed to be like this.

And the momentum is clearly not on her side anymore, either.

[bigtree]

23. there is mo on Obama's side, no doubt

we'll have to wait until these bigger states vote to see if that translates into a steam roll. Best of luck with your candidate.

[Straight Shooter]

26. Thank you for the calm, thoughtful post.

Right now I'm not fretting about Hillary. I'm actually more concerned by the rising red tide of Huckabee. At least Huck admitted in an interview (sorry, no link) that he isn't interested in being veep. On the other hand, he's a Repub, so he might change his mind if the price is right.

[abburdlen]

28. The Clinton campaign is confident it will be victorious

This is all going according to plan. Obama will certainly be defeated....

[bigtree]

30. this is a despicable association

typical

[calteacherguy]

32. LOL. You're funny! nt

[bigtree]

36. that's insightful.

good luck with your candidate. He will be MY candidate if he's nominated.

[calteacherguy]

40. Well, actually I think it was an insightful laugh.

:hi:

And I will certainly support Clinton if she (cough, cough) wins the majority of pledged delegates and popular vote.

[tishaLA]

39. It's true. Sen Obama is still the underdog in this race

Here's hoping he can continue the uphill battle against the entrenched forces to secure victories for a bit longer.

[bigtree]

42. He is a force

glad he's a Democrat

[anamandujano]

47. The underdog with all the millions in donations? Can't have it both ways,

although we know that's the way you like it.

[crawfish]

52. Yes, and the Titanic can swerve fast enough to avoid that iceberg.

I think...

[nomorewhopper]

57. ***SPIN ALERT*** (OP is a red alert spin attempt)

2-1 margins

Northeast
Northwest
Heartland
Deep South

yes, this means nothing.

[bigtree]

63. CNN has Obama up 971 to Clinton's 915.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/candidates/#val=1918

not a wrap-up, by any means, with some larger states said to favor Clinton coming up

[HeraldSquare212]

60. Agreed - as an Obama supporter - but he's not the one who counted his chickens, etc.

Hillary said this campaign would be over after Super Tuesday. She's got a lot of retooling to do - as we're seeing.

[bigtree]

62. Obama has proven to be an inspiring and competitive candidate

and, he's been a gentleman.

Sen. Clinton has a fight on her hands.