If Obama wins TX, is that just another non-Dem state?

[bigbrother05]

Seems that the Clinton camp is trumpeting that Obama is only winning the states that have voted Rep in the past. Well, in the past four cycles (Clinton/Gore/Kerry) those states have been solidly behind the Dem nominee regardless of the fights in the primaries. Think it is something to consider that Obama is the winner in the states needed to put enough distance between the Dems and a Diebold controlled election. Also it is very encouraging that the Dems were turning out in huge numbers (2/3-1 over Reps) while the primaries were still being contested on both sides.

[Colobo]

1. Yes. Texas doesn't matter if Obama wins it.

[VolcanoJen]

13. Yes. It will be characterized as one of those "outliers."

You know, the states that Obama is getting all those landslides in. :-)

[ingac70]

2. Dem turnout in these red states going for Obama...

have been in most cases double the Repub turnout. If we choose Hillary, we ignore this at our peril.

[tammywammy]

3. It wouldn't be wise to ignore Texas, regardless of who wins

Texas is moving blue. While it might not go blue this election cycle, it's moving that way. :)

[lastliberalintexas]

8. It would be wasted money for either to campaign here, though

Long term projections show Texas trending blue, but it isn't even close to being in play this year. And I am honest enough to admit that my fellow Texans are by and large bigoted, sexist assholes, which puts this state even more firmly in the red category this go round. We should most certaily be ignored this year, and for good reason.

[thevoiceofreason]

19. Absolutely wrong

Although the chances of winning Texas now aren't great, there are several congressional races that are very very competitive. I would remind our readers that the presidential nominee is not just in it for themselves -- he/she will be the standard-bearer for the party. That is why I keep repeating my mantra -- HRC is absolute poison to downticket democrats.

[thevoiceofreason]

4. the presidential nominee means a lot in Texas

We have some great down-ticket candidates who will be slaughtered if HRC is the nominee.

And Texas could be in play. Not with her, but with the crossover for Barack.

[lastliberalintexas]

10. You are delusional if you really believe what you wrote

That, or else you don't actually live here.

[blogslut]

15. I live there

Bred born and raised. Texas is as disgusted with the current state of the country as anyone. Maybe more so because that cosmic cowboy passed himself off as one of us. Granted, the ten gallon slickers still back big money, but the average Texan, not so much. And there are a hell of a lot of average Texans.

[lastliberalintexas]

17. I agree about the dissatisfaction

I disagree that it translates into a possible Dem victory here in November, regardless of who our candidate is. I will be pleasantly shocked in November if we do win, but I am not holding my breath.


I also think we have a fairly decent contingency of "Dems" who will bolt from the party with either Clinton or Obama. There are plenty of racists here as you well know, and I've heard Obama supporters of all people state that they would not be able to vote for Clinton because a woman leader goes against Biblical principals (or some equally stupid shit). Our nominee has an uphill battle in Texas this year.

[blogslut]

20. I won't say it will be easy

It can still go red. I'm just saying that things are changing here and Texas could end up being the biggest surprise in the election.

[bigbrother05]

16. Texans in general haven't forgiven Clinton

that an Arkansan could beat a sitting, Texas president still rankles many voters around the state. To have HRC on the top of the ticket would bring out the RW voters to turn back a Clinton for the third time.

[slick8790]

5. Good point, I was wondering if this was ever gonna come up.

Can we dismiss a win in TX as just another red state that'll never vote Dem in the GE? Or Ohio, that hasn't gone dem since 1996.

[ingac70]

6. No we can't...

If we do that, then why not just go ahead and have a coronation for McCain?

[TexasObserver]

7. Texas may be in play if Obama is our nominee, but not if Hillary is.

I know a lot of people think Texas cannot go Democratic in the presidential general election, and they may be right. But conventional wisdom is mainly convention and seldom wisdom. He can win Texas in the general election. Whether he does, we'll have to wait and see.

Even if he doesn't win Texas, he'll win at least 30 other states, and more than enough to bag the presidency.

[rpannier]

9. If he wins Texas it would be significant for many reasons

1. It would show his campaign resonates with Hispanic voters
2. Texas is a very big state with a lot of delegates
3. It would give him more committed delegates

If he loses Texas, we'll wait and see what Ohio does.

[Avalux]

11. Hell no! Some history:

Texas was once about as blue as you can get; when Tom Delay reared his ugly head and actively worked to change that by redistricting, it went red in a lot of areas. There are still parts of Texas like here in San Antonio and Austin that are very blue.

I've made jokes about turning the entire state blue again (after GW Bush, it seemed impossible). Now though, I think Obama might actually be able to do it (in the GE).

[LittleBlue]

12. Spin: If Hillary wins, she can win Indies and converted Reps. If Obama wins, he fails to win

the hard-core constituents, and can only win Limbaugh shills out to throw our nominating process.

You can never win with the Shillbots.

[ShadowLiberal]

14. If Obama wins TX it's a huge blow to Hillary, who cares that it's a red state

Hillary would have suffered a major defeat in what should have been an easy win for her if she loses Texas to Obama (no matter how narrowly).

[MADem]

18. No, if he wins TX, that is an important win. It's not a caucus. It is a big state.

Obama needs to win in blue states. And big states. And he needs to win primaries, not caucus events.

Anyone can win a caucus if one is willing to put organizers ten deep on the ground, collect a group of motivated supporters who are willing to stand around for half a day or an evening, and drive them to caucus locations. Caucus states are more about rounding people up, they are not reflective at all of popular sentiment. It's why polls in caucus states are total jokes.