I don't see how Hillary can keep surviving double-digit losses the rest of February

[BluegrassDem]

And expect to win. By the end of the month, if Obama sweeps, he'll have the tide and momentum in his favor like never before. I think it would be a tipping point of the election. Hillary will look like damaged goods, whether that's fair or not. She'll be perceived as floundering and in a panic. She can't rely on the Rudy strategy.

She needed to knock Obama out on Super Tuesday and now she's in deep shit for not doing so.

[Thrill]

1. Maine will tell a big story in my opinion

IF he wins there. That in my opinion it is a sign of the opinion changing around the country. And it just didn't happen in time for Super Tuesday

[Yossariant]

3. Maine is a caucus. He will win. No big deal.

[Colobo]

19. I expect him to lose tomorrow.

[anamnua]

32. Hype

Was it all over when BO swopt all before him in Iowa and, later, South Carolina? Never underestimate a Clinton when his/her back is to the wall.

[Yossariant]

2. NO.

I expect Obama to win the rest of February's primaries.

There is one tomorrow, three Tuesday and two on the 19th. He is still not going to be close to the number of delegates he needs.

Then there is a two week lull before Ohio and Texas on March 4.

[Guaranteed]

6. But Clinton's support will draw away from her.

You're forgetting how this works.

[Fredda Weinberg]

4. HRC doesn't panic. This will be a long term strategy and we're used

to such things.

[Guaranteed]

7. What about her supporters, though?

You don't think they'll start jumping ship with a month's worth of losses?

[Fredda Weinberg]

10. We know what's coming. Who's jumping when we've been organizing

for generations?

[Guaranteed]

13. Your shallow, name-based support? nt

[Fredda Weinberg]

17. Name based? Did you read It Takes a Village? This is a long

term plan that began long before I was born. Sorry if you don't appreciate nurturers, but I do.

[grantcart]

5. The problem will be the same as that after South Carolina

Barack turns over control of the news cycles this generates more news more endorsements more elections more news cycles

Its like that snowball in the cartoon that eventually wipes out the village of intransigence below.

[K Gardner]

8. I wonder if he has endorsements he's waiting to roll out in the coming days/weeks? Maybe a big one..

one can HOPE... YES WE CAN !

[MadBadger]

I think either John or Al will endorse in the coming days.

[rufus dog]

24. Al should step up

I am a bit disappointed, make a call one way or the other.

[Guaranteed]

12. Right. Primaries are like snowballs.

There's a threshold that one must accelerate up to and cross...and, once it's crossed, it's pretty much over, no matter how many are left.

Even when every primary counts, though, the snowball effect still works. Obama is going to get favorable press coverage, his name will continue equalizing, and people will continue crossing over to him from Clinton's side.

If he wins the rest of the month, he WILL win the nomination. There is no doubt about that.

[VolcanoJen]

9. Ohio and Texas Dems aren't going to vote for a candidate...

... that didn't win a single contest in the month of February, something that is starting to look like a real possibility.

It's almost as if Clinton is looking at OH and TX as a "Stop Obama" moment rather than a "Put me over the top" moment. It's not a good scenario for her. If she loses Maine, and then loses the Potomac Primary on Tuesday, I think this race will have reached its tipping point. Once these things start snowballing, the money stops, the crowds get smaller and the TV coverage less flattering.

She's really got to do something to bust out of this Rudy Giuliani endgame, but I don't see how she can.

[JVS]

14. Assuming that OH and TX will just heave themselves to the support of HRC if she's sliding is...

unrealistic. If we're getting to near the final primaries, people are going to want a decision and aren't going to be jazzed up about turning out in droves to create a deadlocked convention.

[Guaranteed]

18. That's right.

Well said.

[arewenotdemo]

23. Rasmussen has Barack up 57-31 in MD and 55-37 in VA.

Amazing leads if correct.

[Exultant Democracy]

11. I told someone the other day that I thought the double Rudy was a hopeless strategy.

[Guaranteed]

15. If Obama is truly going to win the rest of the month, this is probably the best

post of the night.

[see_key]

16. Hillary is leading with at least 79 delegates because she will get 73 pledged delegates in Michigan

http://edition.cnn.com/POLITICS /

According to CNN, Obama got 74 delegates today, and Clinton got 37.
But Michigan's Democratic national convention, have decided that Clinton will get 73 pledged delegates after winning 55 percent of the statewide vote in January. There are another 55 delegates that will be officially uncommitted to any candidate since 40 percent of the Democratic voters chose uncommitted on the ballot.

In a best case scenario: Obama will get all 55.

And if we use the CNN delegate count;
74 today for Obama + 55 in Michigan = 129
37 today for Clinton + 73 in Micigan = 110

The total delegate count for Clinton wil then be; 1 100( as of today) + 73 delegates from Michigan = 1 173
The total delegate count for Obama wil then be; 1 039( as of today) + 55 delegates from Michigan = 1 094

= Hillary is still leading with 79 delegates
And thats best case scenario for Obama

http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/michigan/index.ssf?/base/politics-1/1202521446263830.xml&storylist=newsmichigan

[AX10]

20. Thanks.

[CalGator]

26. Thanks... for nothing

Had Michigan and Florida held primaries 2-3 weeks later they would not only be in a position to be relevant, they could be king makers in this election. But since their legislatures decided to break party rules for both Dems and Reps, they are not only less relevant for being stripped of delegates in the supposed-to-be drawn out process for determining a nominee, they are even less relevant than they would have been had they voted in March.

[ShadowLiberal]

21. Michigan delegates won't count, and I think Obama is down around 40 delegates overall now

He's getting closer to closing that 100 delegate gap caused by the super delegates.

[John Q. Citizen]

22. Yeah, and Obamas 52 state stradegy is brilliant. At this point he's starting to cover the map.

And your right. She couldn't imagine not knocking him out. And she sure didn't.

Meanwhile, it's obvious she didn't anticipate the sudden activism of Democrats accross the country. Obama has captured the imagination of a very large chunk of the Dem heartland in a very big way.

He put in the resources apparently, and people are ready for a change.

[grizmaster]

25. Better go back an d brush up on your math

start with the number of delegates from Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania

[goodgd_yall]

27. She's still gaining delegates

bit by bit. Then she'll take over Obama in the delegate count by winning big in Texas and Pennsylvania will add more.

[Life Long Dem]

28. It was a bad sign when she borrowed $5million from herself.

[TexasObserver]

29. Here are some numbers and contests which support your post

I posted this here, and you might want to see it.

This shows just how badly he's beating her now.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4516620

[flordehinojos]

30. the media knows we are a country of sheep ready to go to the slaughter house on the say so of just

one sheep. not a nation of thinkers are we. the msm knows it. that is why they make their money. they are paid to sell the bush propaganda to a follow the leader country. o, but if ever we were to become a nation of thinkers ... you can bet obama would not be sweeping now, in february, or beyond.

[hill08]

31. McCain is repeatedly beat by 20+ point by Huckabee

but he will still be the nominee

[Alhena]

33. Wisconsin on February 19 will tell the tale ...

Hillary has a 10 point lead in the polls now and it is a primary, not a caucus. If she wins that, it will show her popularity in big states survives Obama's momentum.