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Supposing Obama and Clinton continue to run well against each other, and there is not a clear cut choice, I believe Obama will get the majority of the superdelegates and the nomination. Here is why:
1) McCain: The superdelegates will realize that Obama has a much better chance of defeating McCain than Clinton does. Senator Clinton does not do as well with independents as McCain, and Obama does better than McCain.
2) Coattails: Superdelegates will believe that Obama's name at the top of the ticket will be more beneficial on the state and local races than Clintons.
3) Dependability of voters: Many of Obamas voters (Youth, newly registered), are not consistent voters. If Obama isn't the nominee, how many of the young people who are excited about him will actually turn out to the polls? How many votes will that cost?
4) Regular delegates: More than likely Obama, will secure a slightly larger number of elected delegates than Hillary. If that is the case, it is hard to believe that the superdelegates will overrule the elected delegates.
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