CNN: Obama has advantage in head-to-head with McCain; HRC trails 57-39 among men

[BeyondGeography]

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. John McCain became the likely Republican nominee after Mitt Romney decided to suspend his campaign Thursday. Now, the Democrats are debating who would do better against the Arizona Republican.

Democrats are debating who would do better against Sen. John McCain, the GOP front-runner.

Two polls this month have asked registered voters nationwide how they would vote if the choice were between McCain and Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton.

A CNN poll, conducted by the Opinion Research Corporation February 1-3, shows Clinton three points ahead of McCain, 50 percent to 47 percent. That's within the poll's margin of error of 3 percentage points, meaning that the race is statistically tied..

A Time magazine poll, conducted February 1-4, also shows a dead heat between Clinton and McCain. Each was backed by 46 percent of those polled.

Sen. Barack Obama believes he can do better, arguing "I've got appeal that goes beyond our party."

In the CNN poll, Obama leads McCain by 8 points, 52 percent to 44 percent. That's outside the margin of error, meaning that Obama has the lead.

And in the Time poll, Obama leads McCain by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent -- a lead also outside of the poll's margin of error of 3 percentage points.

In both polls, Obama looks stronger than Clinton. Why?

Obama's explanation: "I think there is no doubt that she has higher negatives than any of the remaining Democratic candidates. That's just a fact, and there are some who will not vote for her."

That was three weeks ago. Now, only two Democratic candidates remain.

Clinton does have higher negatives than Obama -- and McCain. Forty-four percent of the public say they don't like Clinton, compared with 36 percent who don't like McCain and 31 percent who don't like Obama, according to the CNN poll conducted February 1-3.

Why does Obama do better against McCain than Clinton? Obama does do a little better than Clinton with independents and Republicans.

But the big difference is men: Men give McCain an 18-point lead over Clinton, 57 percent to 39 percent, according to the CNN poll. The margin of error for that question was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

But if McCain and Obama went head to head, McCain's lead among men shrinks to three, 49 percent to 46 percent -- statistically a tie.

Women, on the other hand, vote for either Clinton or Obama by similar margins.

Some Democrats may be worried about how Obama will fare with white voters. Whites give McCain a 15-point lead over Clinton, (56 percent for McCain, 41 percent for Clinton).

But Obama actually fares better than Clinton with white voters. McCain still leads, but by a smaller margin, (52 to 43 percent).

Obama argues that he can reach across party lines. And he does do a little better than Clinton with Independents and Republicans, at least in these polls.

But the big difference is that Clinton doesn't draw very well with men. Obama does.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/08/20008.matchups.schneider/index.html

[thunder rising]

1. "does do a little better than Clinton with Independents and Republicans"...YA THINK?

[GOPBasher]

2. Poll after poll shows this.

The GOP nominated their most electable candidate. Clinton, although I like her, is our least electable. Will we shoot ourselves in the foot by nominating her, the way we did with Kerry last time?

[Guaranteed]

4. It was Will Pitt who boiled it down, earlier. Obama simply has

a much better chance of beating John McCain.

Case closed.

[grytpype]

9. Agreed, he has to be the nominee. I donated $250 to his campaign today.

[Pirate Smile]

19. Yeah for you!

:bounce:

[TexasObserver]

47. Obama is by far our best candidate in November.

He will bring larger majorities, too, not destroy the down ballot candidates like Hillary will.

Only the most desperate Hillary backers cannot admit this.

[DaLittle Kitty]

40. BEST Against McCain... Poll After Poll Showed it... Was JOHN EDWARDS... NIMRODS!

[GOPBasher]

44. I know that, and I supported him. Notice you said "was." He's out

of the race now, perhaps you've heard. What the hell is with the rudeness?

[surfermaw]

49. I wouldn't call Edwards out until the last dogs come home at the Convention

[muntrv]

3. Obama also does far better with the under 30 demographic.

[loveangelc]

5. Men are not going to have an epiphany and vote for Hillary in the G.E.

I just don't see men going in droves to vote for Hillary. Yes, these polls are early, but I don't how see it changes too much from now, theyre not voting for Hillary...we cannot depend only on women to put Hillary over the top in a GE and women will vote for either before they vote for McCain. It's very simple math as to who can win in November. I feel sorry for us who do not see this. It doesn't matter how much of a "fighter" Hillary is, men are not going to vote for her over McCain.

[sandnsea]

6. This is about rejecting nannyism

I hope our Democrats learn the right lesson. No more sweaters and video game police please.

[maddiejoan]

22. Why do you leave Obama out?

http://news.softpedia.com/news/Barack-Obama-and-Hillary-Clinton-to-Protect-Children-from-Inappropriate-Videogames-75712.shtml

""I would call upon the video game industry to give parents better information about programs and video games by improving the voluntary rating system we currently have. Broadcasters and video game producers should take it upon themselves to improve this system to include easier to find and easier to understand descriptions of exactly what kind of content is included. But if the industry fails to act, then my administration would. "

[sandnsea]

36. Voluntary cooperation

Verse ramming legislation down people's throats. The approach matters.

[maddiejoan]

37. uh huh

"But if the industry fails to act, then my administration would."

sounds reeeeeeeeaaaaal voluntary.

[sandnsea]

38. After voluntary negotiations

The approach matters. And besides, I said if the Democratic Party learns the right lesson and that includes him. He seems to have, by knowing that you can't ram stuff down Americans' throats, you have to bring them into the process and give them ownership.

[maddiejoan]

39. apparently

with a boot on their necks

[TexasObserver]

7. Obama will clearly win more voters and states then Hillary

She has no chance winning anything but the largest states, and they won't be enough. Even if they were, the cost will be down ballot losses of Biblical proportions in the other states that will cost us the house and senate.

[Medusa]

8. And this is why the right-wing wants Hillary as the nominee

and why we'll lose if she is.

[catagory5]

12. well

But she will win Women vote by 20% so what is the big deal? Also, if she is the Nom. far and square than Obama should make amends and tell his supporters to back Clinton. Likewise she should if he is the nom. There is no way that either one can lose if they have the support of lets say 80% of the other canidates supporters. If the runner up tells there supporters for the good of the party to back the Nom then I would hope they would. They are not that far off on most issues. I just cant see a dem lossing this year no matter what.

[femrap]

10. So glad to hear that I still live in a

misogynist nation. Bunch of 'astrats. yip fucking pee.

[calteacherguy]

14. Women are evenly split between Clinton and McCain.

Explain that if what you say is true.

[femrap]

16. I'd like to see your link first, boy. nt

[calteacherguy]

20. Correction, Women vote for Barack and Hillary by similar margins.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4489552&mesg_id=4489552

Still, the question remains. How do you explain that one, girl?

[femrap]

42. you're supposedly the teacher, boy.

And from California? When I lived there, boys were so gentlemanly...I guess I was right...you're just another boy. Look at the age differences. The young women (since Reagan) have been taught to suck cock...prior to that, women were looking for clit suckers.

Look at the 24/7 MSM and how its message is so different from pre-1980. Or don't. I really don't care, teach.

[roseBudd]

11. It is the charisma. Men do not like Hilary...

It was painful watching John Kerry on the Daily Show. We nominate another candidate with low charisma quotient at our peril

I have one supreme requirement. The D MUST win. That is job 1

My gut is telling me to bet on charisma

[Triana]

32. Men do not like WOMEN....

...(except when they're cooking for them, having their babies, giving them good sex, doing their laundry, raising their kids, etc.).

Do you REALLY think if it was a different woman than Hillary they'd vote for her? WHAT WOMAN would a man ever vote for for President?

Describe her, please. A "non-nanny"? Because most men think of women as "mommy" (which is their own sexist attitude in their own head - nothing to do with the woman herself who might be running).

Men DEFINE women a certain way. And it doesn't matter what the woman/women are REALLY like. What matters is the male DEFINITION of them - right or wrong - they'll never vote for ANY woman because ANY woman is considered to be identical to their DEFINITION of women everywhere. ALL of them are crammed inside that frame of reference - whether that is what they're really like or not.

Men vote AGAINST THEIR OWN IDEAS OF WHAT WOMEN are. NOT against REAL women (because they don't know a damn thing about REAL women).

And men DON'T CHANGE.

Flame ON boys. Whatever. Pfft!

[roseBudd]

46. I don't dispute your points, but I do think a charismatic female would have

higher male support. Rational DUers make a mistake when they assume policy and positions form the basis for voting decisions. Most of the electorate is not informed BUT they have been conditioned by decades of clever GOP framing. Only charisma and the emotions it creates will override that conditioning. An example is "Democrat equals giving my tax money to lazy welfare bums"
There are people voting for Rs solely on that criteria.

I worked my butt off doing GOTV for Kerry in 04 because in my mind whoever is our nominee the D must win. But I had zero feelings for Kerry. We overanalyzed when we nominated Kerry. When the GOP plays dirty pool, the Ds have to win by large margins. Kerry was a cold fish, with an overly large long head. I am first and foremost a pragmatist. We have to win, if we choose Hilary for reasons like policy, position, experience and discount how people feel about and for Hilary we run the risk of losing.

IMHO we must win, then we worry about everything else.

A candidate like Barack and Bill Clinton don't come around often.

[Triana]

48. A charismatic woman would still have been picked apart, over-analyzed..

...subject to unrealistic expectations, and dragged over a bed of coals that NO "charismatic" man ever would.

And men at large STILL would never vote for her - because of the definition in their minds of what women are - not that Ms. Charismatic Presidential Candidate IS that kind of women, but men will ALWAYS vote for what their IDEA of women are - no matter what any particular woman IS or IS NOT.

This isn't an issue that can be resolved by political framing, "charisma" or anything else. Nothing less than a societal sea-change will resolve it.

And we're nowhere NEAR that in this country. The three 'isms' that are STILL the MOST unresolved in this country are sexism, classism and ageism. Racism still exists but due to years of public education SUPPORTED by many local and national gov't initiatives - isn't nearly as bad as the other two 'isms'.

I see and have seen ZERO gov't-supported Public Education initiatives aimed at reducing sexism, classism or ageism. These are not considered important enough. How DO we treat women, children, animals, the poor, sick, and elderly in this country?

VERY BADLY. THIS is the TRUE indicator our national morality - not distractions like abortion or gay marriage.

THE REASON Hillary or NO other women will be supported by men-at-large for President is because of this. It is based in the IMMORAL society we live in and the DEFINITIONS living in the pea-brains of too many men about women.

[cooolandrew]

13. It's the stats, we win big with Barack and have less obstructjion from repub voters if he gets thru.

[jefferson_dem]

15. An 18 point gap among men?!

With those numbers, she will get trounced in the GE if we give her a chance.

[BeyondGeography]

18. Either that or she won't be able to govern

that is a seriously ugly number.

[KoKo]

17. More women vote than men though. Or, at least in the past decade

that's been true. :shrug: who knows how this could go...but looking at Super Tuesday breakdown the turnout for women voting was very high on the Dem side. And the votes split for Obama and Hillary. On the Repug side....more Repug Men vote than their women. figures...

[BlueManDude]

21. Just as important she will kill us downballot.

[dicknbush]

28. I have seen nohting that supports this Obama Talking Point

Show me somthing that proves this. And once again once it is decided who the nominee is then all of this conjecture will be mute because I guarentee you that the Dems will get in line to defeat the Old McCain and the Bush agenda for anohter four years count on it and who ever is the nominee will bring in a huge change across the board. We already have 28 Reubs quitiing they are not even going to run!

[suston96]

23. Any democrat will beat McCain. But by all means.....

...keep trusting those poll numbers. They are right all the time - time after time.

[dicknbush]

24. THis is so misleading and the dynamic will change when Hillary is Nominated

Men have always had a problem with hillary but progressive men are not going to vote for McCain over the Democratic tickets. Wshen the important issues are being discussed int the general election Health care, Appontmets to the SCOTUS etc this type of a poll will change and is there fore really meaning less at this time.

[workinclasszero]

25. Will the dems choose to fail again... or...

better yet, will Hillary give up willingly when Obama has the most delegates right before the convention?:shrug:

[dicknbush]

26. Plus you are leaving out an important stat.....

MORE DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO VOTE THEN REPUBLICANS NO MATTER WHO IS THE NOMINEE AND ANY DEMOCRAT IS GOING TO BEAT MCCAIN! All of this stuff is scare tactics by the Obama camp to make people think that Hillary can't win. When she is the Nominee She will win. When it goet down to the nitty gritty McCain is going to fold like an ols suit. He is going to make major gaffs and his age and tiredness is going to be a BIG issue. He will lose no matter what.

[Nimrod2005]

27. There are about 5 different polls showing the same

[hedgetrimmer]

29. Well you see Obama is a good donkey and well Hillary

is a bad donkey, then McCain is a bad elephant and people would prefer a good donkey over a bad one or a bad elephant. That makes it Obama because well he is a good donkey.

[Triana]

30. "I've got appeal that goes beyond our party" - YAP. He does...

..he's a MAN. MANY male voters won't vote for a woman no matter WHO or what she is or isn't - it isn't just that it's Hillary. They'll vote for ANYone and ANYthing else than ANY woman.

THAT is the "appeal" Obama has. It's a penis. Hillary doesn't have one.

FLAME ON boys. I KNOW you will...

[BeyondGeography]

33. I hear he's saving the "I've got a penis" ad for Texas and Ohio

:scared:

[BeyondGeography]

34. dupe

[dicknbush]

31. HOPE??????HOPE?????? WE DON'T NEED HOPE WE NEED.........

HELP!!!!

WE NEED HELP WITH HEALTH CARE
WE NEED HELP WITH THE ECCONOMY
WE NEED HELP WITH JUDGES WHO HAVE COMMON SNESE

WE NEED HILLARY!

[CatnHat]

43. Watch Out

You'll see that one in the next Obama rally HOPE FOR HELP. Don't give them any ideas.:rofl:

I totally agree with your post. We do need "HELP" and "YES WE WILL" instead of that same drone from the Obama camp; over and over again; over and over again; over and over again. Hypnotizing. :yoiks:

[mzmolly]

35. Misogyny is alive and well in America.

I'm not a clinton supporter, but it's clear that some American men are not ready for a "Madam President".

Flame away.

[loveangelc]

41. bumping...

[hill08]

45. what's funny

is that Obama hardly beats McCain with all the media and celebrity hype around him. Can you imagine what will happen when the media starts praising the war hero McCain and forgets the young, wet behind the ears junior senator from Chicago?