Clinton somehow wouldn't? I have seen this claim stated on here by a number of posters, but I am just wondering where the substance is to back it up?
It seems to be premised on the fact that Clinton does substantially better with Latino voters in the primaries than Obama. Somehow this translates to millions of Latino voters being flat-out opposed to an Obama nomination and going as far as to swing to McCain and give CA, a state that voted for both Al Gore and John Kerry by a substantial margin, to the Repugs.
Apologies if this has been discussed to death and I missed it, or if there is some commonly-known piece of evidence demonstrating Latino voters saying that they would vote for Clinton over McCain, but swing to McCain were Obama to get the nomination. If this exists, I would like to see it. However, most seem to be basing the claim on the idea that Latinos are unwilling to vote for black candidates for office. While there may be evidence showing that this has been the case in certain past elections, is there evidence that it is always or almost always the case? I'd be particularly interested in any CA poll showing match-ups between Clinton vs. McCain and Obama vs. McCain that break down for the demographics of voters, and show Obama doing substantially worse with Latinos with McCain picking them up.
FWIW, after a quick search for recent California polls showing head-to-heads between the Democrats and McCain, the first one I came across shows Obama doing slightly better than Clinton against McCain, although the results for both are too damn close for comfort for CA, in my view. If Obama really is lacking in support from Latinos, he seems to be compensating for it by gaining ground with other voters that Clinton is not. (And yes, the poll being cited is certainly questionable, considering it predicted the CA Dem primary outcome being much closer than it actually was. Still, if Obama is as unpopular among Latinos as some on here seem to suggest, I would think even a flawed poll would be able to demonstrate this lack of support among a group of people whom I believe make up 35%+ of the state's population.)
>>>>Clinton now clings to a bare 45 to 43 percent lead over McCain in a projected California presidential vote, down dramatically from her 17 percentage point margin just two weeks ago. Obama now holds a stronger 47 to 40 percent margin over the Arizona senator, but that's only half the 14 percentage point advantage he had in mid-January.>>>>>
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/02/03/MNF7UR6FE.DTL&tsp=1
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