Wisconsin on February 19 will tell whether Obama can win

[Alhena]

I've been giving the calendar and past primary results a hard look, and I have come to the conclusion that Wisconsin primary on February 19 will tell us whether Obama can beat Hillary. Why?

First of all, Wisconsin is a primary, rather than caucus, and Obama has gotten his past landslides (other than Illinois and states with large black populations) in caucuses where voter enthusiasm trumps numbers- you have to really care to devote a few hours to a caucus. But the big remaining elections will not consist of caucuses, and Obama needs to show he can pull in the numbers of voters needed to at least be competitive in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Second, Obama should have great momentum heading into Wisconsin. He will likely have won in La, Ne, Wa, Md, DC, and Va and no one in Wisconsin will doubt that he is a genuine threat to win. That wasn't the case on Super Tuesday- many pundits were saying after South Carolina and Florida that Obama had been tagged as the "black" candidate and the votes would fall along racial lines. I privately wondered whether Pat Buchanan was right about this- I thought Hillary might well wrap things up on Super Tuesday. Obama trouncing Hillary in states like Kansas, Minnesota and Idaho put a rest to that notion, emphatically.

Third, early voting will not be a factor in Wisconsin like it was in Florida and California. If they do allow early voting, it will be done (presumably) after Obama has established his viability on Super Tuesday.

Finally, Wisconsin is a large midwestern state with similar demographics to Ohio and Pennsylvania. As an Obama supporter, my biggest concern about his candidacy is that he is running so far behind in those two states, which will be crucial in November. As a Democrat, my wanting to win in November trumps even my loyalty to Obama, and so I will reluctantly support Hillary if she beats him soundly in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Obama may have a national lead in polls, but states like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania will decide the election and McCain looks strong in those states.

So Obama needs to prove himself in the Wisconsin primary- if he wins there, I will think he can and will win the overall nomination. If he loses Wisconsin by more than a few points I will think he likely can't do so.

[MadBadger]

1. Madison is a strong Obama town IMO, and Obama could solidify it if he has a rally at the KOhl center

There are also a good amount of war activists out here that would more likely go to Obama then Clinton.

[rodeodance]

17. many people are not one-issue voters even on war-

[rodeodance]

23. ha ha ha

[Renew Deal]

2. Wisconsin is also an open primary

Everyone can vote.

[MadBadger]

5. And if McCain is to be seen as having it all wrapped up, that helps him even more.

[Renew Deal]

8. With indies

But I've read about republican crossovers to help Hillary.

[MadBadger]

10. I've heard that on campus here in Madison.

[Barack_America]

6. Yep. I am confident that he will win Wisconsin.

Has Hillary yet won a Midwestern primary/caucus where Obama's name was on the ballot?

[rodeodance]

19. This again--those cheezeheads do not like outside folk telling them how to think/vote.

[Barack_America]

22. ???

Are you from the Midwest? Will you be voting in WI?

[rodeodance]

25. it cold in the midwest

[Alhena]

7. Yes, just like Texas, although Pennsylvania is closed

and Ohio is open to independents but not Republicans. We'll be able to tell what kind of impact crossover Republican votes will likely have in Texas on March 4 based on the exit polling in Wisconsin.

The experts will really be able to pick apart the Wisconsin results and make some very educated guesses about Ohio and Texas, after making adjustments for demographics and the known political scenes in each state.

[MadBadger]

9. I've heard a rumor among some Repuke Students to vote for Hillary in the primary.

[TexasObserver]

3. Wisconsin has a goodly number of Catholic Democrats

They break for Hillary, typically.

I hope Obama wins there, but it could go the other way.

[mohc]

4. Given its proximity to Illinois

Don't you think that there will be a home turf factor involved? A good deal of Wisconsin's population is near its border with Illinois, especially along the lake (Milwaukee area). While the upstate demographics may favor Clinton, my reading of this state would give Obama an overall advantage.

[Barack_America]

11. Not to mention being bordered by Minnesota and Iowa.

The state is surrounded by very Obama-friendly areas. In fact, IL, IA and MN represented some of Obama's largest victories to date.

He'll take Wisconsin. You can hold me to that. I know my Midwestern folks.

[MadBadger]

12. He should have a lot of time to campaign here as well. with Feb 19th only having Hawaii and Wisco.

I think there is a week separating the Potomac Primaries and the two on Feb 19th, with none in between. Obama should be able to spend some time in Madison and Milwaukee and take this state.

[Dawgs]

13. Right now he's down 9 (he can make up this number by spending three days there).

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/widem8-701.html

[MadBadger]

15. ARG, says enough.

[rodeodance]

21. Tammy Balwin is going her job in Wisconsin

[Renew Deal]

18. And I think he's a little better off with indies

It's doable.

[Icyclemort]

14. it'll be quite difficult

I don't know why everybody thinks he'll sweep everything till Texas/Ohio. Expectations game again, i suspect.

He is trailing in Wisconsin and not weeks ago, but right now...

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

16. Interesting post

and one that is, thankfully, full of substance. My spiritual guide is from Madison, and I have been there many times. Beautiful place with beautiful people.

[Bullet1987]

20. I've never agreed with this notion that if a candidate can't carry a primary...

then they'd lose it in the General Election. That would take the assumption that ALL or MOST of the Dems that didn't vote for him would not come out and vote for him in the GE...and that is unrealistic.

It's different with the Republicans where that would matter, because the Base despises McCain. So if he can't carry states that are representative of the rethug base...THAT'S a problem. The Dems don't hate Hillary or Obama like that. Disagree yea...but not hate.

[AtomicKitten]

24. Didn't they say the same thing about Missouri? Sounds like goal posts moving.