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There will not be a deadlocked convention

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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 06:31 PM
Original message
There will not be a deadlocked convention
It is impossible for elected (pledged) delegates to decide the nomination.

That means Super Delegates will provide the winning margin.

But that is NOT a brokered convention. There will almost certainly be a winner on the first ballot.

In practical terms, the only way there wouldn't be a first ballot winner is if Super Delegates and uncommitted delegates REFUSE to chose between Obama and Clinton, making a majority impossible. (The odds of Edwards delegates providing the needed margin is a real mathematical long-shot, even assuming he doesn't release them first)

There is no reason to think any of that would happen.

Either Hillary or Barack will win on the first ballot. Call it a 98% chance.
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Fermezlabush Donating Member (211 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 06:51 PM
Response to Original message
1. Thanks. I didn't know how exactly that worked
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 07:09 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. I'm just assuming, but a two-person race can't really get deadlocked
A dead-locked convention, where nobody can get a majority, requires a block of votes who aren't for either candidate, and I don't see such a block anywhere.
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