We need Florida as insurance in case we lose Iowa and Wisconsin

[ringmastery]

The demographic trends in Iowa and Wisconsin do not favor us holding these states.

http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index.ssf?/base/news-13/1078650639128641.xml

Still, there are seven states where the 2000 election was extremely close and where demographic changes could play a role in a tight race:


Florida went for Bush by just 537 votes in the 2000 election. Since then, the state has experienced a net gain of about 58,700 likely Democrats.


New Hampshire favored Bush by a margin of 7,211 votes in 2000. But it appears the Democrats have scored a net gain of more than 13,400 votes, which could move the state into the Democratic column.


Iowa was a Gore state four years ago, by a margin of 4,144 votes. But the state is contracting and appears to be losing more Democrats than Republicans, giving the GOP an 11,000-vote edge today.


Wisconsin went Democratic four years ago by just 5,708 votes. But as in Iowa, population losses appear to hurt the Democrats more, a trend that could put Bush over the top this year.


Nevada favored Bush by 21,597 votes in 2000. But migration data suggest Democrats have gained nearly 16,000 votes since then, which would make the Republican advantage much smaller.


New Mexico was even closer than Florida four years ago; Gore won by just 366 votes. Demographic data suggest the Democrats have gained almost 1,900 votes, but the race still looks highly competitive.


Oregon handed Gore a 6,765-vote win in 2000. That margin could shrink to less than 1,000 this year.

[4dsc]

1. Iowa democratic party??

I cannot say a good thing about this organization. If they fail to bring this state to Kerry, its because they are just plain lazy!!

[MurikanDemocrat]

2. Higher Democratic turnout could help us in all those states though.

[La_Serpiente]

3. Argghh

Maybe we could have Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico insured as well.

[lastknowngood]

4. You better start looking at California with the shrub's appointee

Auuuunnnnnalllllld in charge you can bet the democratic election roles will be purged just before the election to ensure the shrub a win. Think about it there has to be a reason they spent that much money and media time to the that moran in power there. Look out for California were in deeeeep shi*

[HawkerHurricane]

5. Good luck with a purge.

Unlike states in a certain part of the country, California does NOT take the right to vote away from people who have finished paying thier debt to society. In fact, California has one of the easiest systems to register... too easy, I think sometimes... without a majority in the statehouse, Ahnold will have no chance of purging the rolls before November. And with the crunch coming this summer (no new revenues, and nothing left to cut), the Govornator is going to have a tough time getting a balanced budget... he's going to have to cut deep or raise taxes, and either one will cost him heavily. California is NOT going Republican this year.

[fujiyama]

6. Keep reminding people!

This is very important to keep in mind.

Gore barely won either Iowa or Wisconsin. Expect Bush to pour tons of cash into these states.

The shift seems pretty ridiculous though, considering Dukakis won Iowa in '88. We can't let Iowa and Wisconsin go.

Another thing to keep in mind is Nader had significant turnouts in both states ~ 4% in both. Expect him to get a quarter of that, maybe a third at the most.

[Moderator]

7. ringmastery

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[OhioStateProgressive]

8. well I hope we can find them, if that is the case.(nt)